Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
33 min read
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Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
11 min read
“Big Beautiful Bill” House GOP Tax Plan: Preliminary Details and Analysis
Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions increase long-run GDP by 0.8 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
8 min read
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in the One, Big, Beautiful Bill
Republicans have advanced legislation to extend many provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) alongside dozens of new provisions. Any comprehensive tax legislation is going to have its wrinkles, and the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” is no different.
8 min read
Sources of Government Revenue in the OECD, 2025
Developed countries raise tax revenue through individual income taxes, corporate income taxes, social insurance taxes, taxes on goods and services, and property taxes—the combination of which determines how distortionary or neutral a tax system is.
4 min read
SALT Cap Workarounds for Some Pass-Through Entities Are Threatened by One, Big, Beautiful Bill
For owners of pass-through businesses, the reconciliation package (1) raises the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap, (2) denies the benefit of pass-through entity-level taxes that had previously worked around the SALT cap for such pass-through businesses, and (3) increases the Section 199A deduction for qualifying pass-through entities.
4 min read
State Implications of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill
As the US House hashes out its “One, Big, Beautiful Bill,” statehouse lawmakers are watching closely, given the impact of both its tax and spending provisions on state budgets.
12 min read
What Are the Goals of Retaliatory Tax Policies?
The US Ways and Means Committee’s “Big Beautiful Bill” includes a retaliatory provision called Section 899, along with an expansion of the base erosion and anti-abuse tax (BEAT).
7 min read
Fiscal Forum: Future of the EU Tax Mix with Dr. Jost Heckemeyer
Sean Bray interviewed Professor of Business Accounting and Taxation at the University of Kiel, Jost Heckemeyer, about the future of the EU tax mix. The interview shows that there is a trade-off between stability and flexibility in European tax policymaking. It also shows that there ought to be a balance between fairness and competitiveness when thinking about improving tax policy.
16 min read
A More Generous SALT Deduction Cap in the Big, Beautiful Bill Would Cost Revenue and Primarily Benefit High Earners
Letting the SALT cap slip further upwards would undercut the TCJA’s long-term legacy, worsening the fiscal outlook of the tax package and providing an unneeded benefit to higher earners.
4 min read
Current Trump Tariffs Threaten to Offset Benefits of Promised Tax Cuts
While Congress works on the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” to cut taxes, President Trump has imposed significantly higher taxes by placing tariffs on more than 70 percent of US imports.
2 min read
An Income Tax by Any Other Name: State-Level Non-UI Payroll Taxes
Six states and DC assess a state-level non-UI payroll tax in addition to their mandatory federal UI payroll tax.
6 min read
The One Big Beautiful Bill, Explained
We break down the House GOP’s One, Big, Beautiful Bill—a sweeping tax package designed to extend key parts of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act before they expire in 2026.
Net Operating Loss Carryforward and Carryback Provisions in Europe, 2025
Carryover provisions help businesses “smooth” their risk and income, making the tax code more neutral across investments and over time.
5 min read
Montana Property Tax Reform Options: A Tax Shift Is Not a Tax Reform
With such important changes to Montana’s property tax system at stake, it’s important that lawmakers get the details right.
5 min read
Three Corporate Tax Hikes That Would Undermine TCJA’s Improvements to Competitiveness
As lawmakers consider options for budgetary offsets, they should prioritize competitiveness and economic growth, as a heavier corporate tax burden will undermine the core purpose and achievement of the TCJA.
24 min read
House Tax Package Could Double Economic Growth Impact by Prioritizing Permanence for TCJA Business Provisions
As the current tax package stands, the House’s use of temporary policy is leaving most of the economic growth opportunities on the table.
2 min read
House “One Big Beautiful Bill” Riddled with Temporary Tax Policy
As lawmakers continue to debate the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” they should abandon temporary and complex policy in favor of simplicity and stability.
4 min read
House GOP’s Approach to the IRA Clean Energy Tax Credits: Five Things to Know
Tax simplification has two aspects. The first is a code without a mess of targeted provisions for various social policy goals. The second is a code with provisions that are simple and easy to comply with. The bill succeeds at the first, but fails at the second.
7 min read
Washington’s Digital Ad Sales Tax Legislation Is a Legal and Economic Minefield
In Washington, Gov. Ferguson (D) will soon have to act on legislation enacting a far more sweeping tax on Washington-based businesses than lawmakers imagined.
7 min read