Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The Trump tariffs are the largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP since 1993 and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,500 in 2026.
48 min read
Featured Articles
Even After Exemptions, More than Half of Food Products Continue to Face Trump Tariffs
The Trump tariffs will likely raise the cost of food for Americans, particularly for liqueurs and spirits, baked goods, coffee, fish, and beer.
4 min read
The Best Way to Provide Relief Is to Repeal Tariffs, Not Offer Tariff Rebate Checks
As US businesses and consumers face higher costs of goods due to the Trump tariffs, Senator Hawley (R-MO) has introduced legislation to rebate tariff revenue to provide financial relief. The proposal takes a similar approach to the stimulus checks issued during the COVID-19 pandemic.
4 min read
The Truth About Tariffs—Fact-Checking Trump’s Trade Claims
Do tariffs really level the playing field, or are they just bad economics? In this emergency episode, we fact-check the Trump administration’s claims that retaliatory tariffs make trade fairer.
Who Pays Tariffs? Americans Will Bear the Costs of the Next Trade War
Rather than hurting foreign exporters, the economic evidence shows American firms and consumers were hardest hit by tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first-term.
5 min read
Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs
Contrary to the president’s promises, the tariffs will cause short-term pain and long-term pain, no matter the ways people and businesses change their behavior.
5 min read
Testimony: Alternatives to Tariffs to Boost US Competitiveness
While tariffs are often presented as tools to enhance US competitiveness, a long history of evidence and recent experience shows they lead to increased costs for consumers and unprotected producers and harmful retaliation, which outweighs the benefits afforded to protected industries.
Learning from the First Trade War: Retaliation Hurts US Exporters
As we learned in the first trade war, retaliation will exact harm on US exporters by lowering their export sales—and the US-imposed tariffs will directly harm exporters too. US-imposed tariffs can burden exporters by increasing input costs, which acts like a tax on exports.
4 min read
How Will Trump’s Universal and China Tariffs Impact the Economy?
President-elect Trump may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire. Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy.
5 min read
The European VAT is Not a Discriminatory Tax Against US Exports
The Trump administration appears to be moving in a “reciprocal” policy direction despite the significant negative economic consequences for American consumers of across-the-board tariffs on goods coming into the US. However, the EU’s VAT system should not be used as a justification for retaliatory tariffs.
6 min read
Donald Trump Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min read
Trump’s Tariff Proposals Would Raise Tariff Rates to Great Depression-Era Levels
Using tariff policy to reallocate investment and jobs is a costly mistake—that’s a history lesson we should not forget.
6 min read
Revenue Estimates of Trump’s Universal Baseline Tariffs
Lawmakers will need to pursue fiscal responsibility as they address the tax law expirations, but fiscal responsibility requires finding sound ways to pay for spending priorities. Tariffs don’t make the cut.
4 min read
Why the Economic Effects of Taxes (Including Tariffs) Matter
Estimating the economic effects of different types of taxes informs policymakers about the trade-offs of raising revenue in a given way.
5 min read
2024 Election Insights | Can Trump’s Tariff Plan Really Replace the Income Tax?
Can tariffs truly replace income taxes in today’s economy? In this episode, we examine the bold and controversial proposal from former President Trump to replace income taxes with tariffs. What would this dramatic shift mean for everyday Americans, particularly those with lower incomes? And would it actually work?
All Related Articles
Trump Tariffs Threaten to Offset Much of the “Big Beautiful Bill” Tax Cuts
The tariffs now in effect threaten to offset much of the GDP growth from the tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them.
3 min read
Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The Trump tariffs are the largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP since 1993 and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,500 in 2026.
48 min read
Even After Exemptions, More than Half of Food Products Continue to Face Trump Tariffs
The Trump tariffs will likely raise the cost of food for Americans, particularly for liqueurs and spirits, baked goods, coffee, fish, and beer.
4 min read
Will the OBBBA Tax Cuts Grow the US Economy?
Over the long run, OBBBA’s permanent extension of lower marginal tax rates on work, saving, and investment lays a solid foundation for stronger economic growth.
6 min read
The Weird Ways Taxes Impact Behavior
What do beards, chickens, and windows have in common? Surprisingly, taxes.
2025 Tax Review | What OBBBA Changed, the Impact of Tariffs, and What’s Next
In this episode, we break down what the OBBBA did, walk through our projections, and zoom out to other defining fights of 2025: Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the Supreme Court challenge over presidential tariff power, and the growing wave of property tax revolts across the states.
How Does the OBBBA Impact Debt, Deficits, and Tax Revenue?
Our modeling indicates the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will boost economic growth but increase deficits, leading to record high debt in 2028 that rises to 124 percent of GDP by 2034.
7 min read
IEEPA Tariffs Are Down from April Threats
Since April, the tariffs that have been implemented in practice are mostly, but not exclusively, lower than what was originally threatened.
5 min read
Tariff Dividends Would Cost More than Tariff Revenues Will Generate
Under nearly any design option, sending out $2,000 payments to Americans would increase, not decrease, the federal budget deficit. A better way to provide relief from the burden of tariffs would be to eliminate the tariffs.
4 min read
Tariff Rebate Checks Won’t Help Families. Ending the Trade War Would.
One thing remains certain: sending out tariff rebates does not provide a long-term solution for families, but ending the trade war would.
Is the OBBBA the “Largest Tax Cut in American History?”
Several political leaders, including the White House, have touted the OBBBA as the “largest tax cut in American history.” While significant, the OBBBA is not the largest tax cut in American history; it’s the sixth largest.
3 min read
Who Has the Authority to Levy Tariffs?
The US Supreme Court heard oral arguments on November 5 to determine whether the president’s emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) include the power to impose tariffs.
6 min read
Trump’s Tariffs Head to the Supreme Court
In this episode of The Deduction, we unpack Trump’s tariffs as they head to the Supreme Court. We break down scenarios if the Court upholds or strikes the tariffs, who really pays, and how Congress might respond—your concise guide to tariffs and the Supreme Court.
What You Should Know About the Trump Tariffs Being Challenged at the Supreme Court
The Supreme Court is deciding a case over whether the President can impose sweeping tax increases on imported goods. It’s a multi-trillion-dollar question with enormous implications for the US economy, taxpayers, and limitations on emergency powers.
5 min read
Trump Tariffs Are Raising Prices for Consumers, Latest Evidence Shows
Several goods have experienced notably large price increases, including apparel, coffee and tea, cameras, and furniture.
4 min read
Testimony: Digital Services Taxes in the European Union
Since digital services taxes deliver limited revenue, shift the burden to European consumers, and risk provoking trade disputes, it’s time for policymakers to rethink their approach.
Financial Ruin? Why Losing IEEPA Tariff Revenue Won’t Change the Long-Term US Fiscal Trajectory
The US fiscal trajectory is on an unsustainable path over the next 35 years, regardless of whether the IEEPA tariffs are struck down or maintained.
3 min read
The Transatlantic Balancing Act
Instead of getting stuck in a reactionary posture, European countries should simply aim for competitiveness, and the EU can support that work with stronger, more stable trade relationships.
The Trump Administration is Building a Fiscal House of Cards
President Donald Trump’s fixation on tariffs as a solution for just about everything, including the deficit, has led him to run roughshod over the law and norms of international trade.
Fiscal Forum: Future of the EU Tax Mix with Dr. Irma Mosquera Valderrama
Sean Bray interviews Dr. Irma Mosquera Valderrama, Full Professor of Tax Governance at Leiden Law School (Leiden University) and EU Jean Monnet Chair Holder on EU Tax Governance about the EU tax mix.
24 min read