Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min read
Featured Articles
Even After Exemptions, More than Half of Food Products Continue to Face Trump Tariffs
The Trump tariffs will likely raise the cost of food for Americans, particularly for liqueurs and spirits, baked goods, coffee, fish, and beer.
4 min read
The Best Way to Provide Relief Is to Repeal Tariffs, Not Offer Tariff Rebate Checks
As US businesses and consumers face higher costs of goods due to the Trump tariffs, Senator Hawley (R-MO) has introduced legislation to rebate tariff revenue to provide financial relief. The proposal takes a similar approach to the stimulus checks issued during the COVID-19 pandemic.
4 min read
The Truth About Tariffs—Fact-Checking Trump’s Trade Claims
Do tariffs really level the playing field, or are they just bad economics? In this emergency episode, we fact-check the Trump administration’s claims that retaliatory tariffs make trade fairer.
Who Pays Tariffs? Americans Will Bear the Costs of the Next Trade War
Rather than hurting foreign exporters, the economic evidence shows American firms and consumers were hardest hit by tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first-term.
5 min read
Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs
Contrary to the president’s promises, the tariffs will cause short-term pain and long-term pain, no matter the ways people and businesses change their behavior.
5 min read
Testimony: Alternatives to Tariffs to Boost US Competitiveness
While tariffs are often presented as tools to enhance US competitiveness, a long history of evidence and recent experience shows they lead to increased costs for consumers and unprotected producers and harmful retaliation, which outweighs the benefits afforded to protected industries.
Learning from the First Trade War: Retaliation Hurts US Exporters
As we learned in the first trade war, retaliation will exact harm on US exporters by lowering their export sales—and the US-imposed tariffs will directly harm exporters too. US-imposed tariffs can burden exporters by increasing input costs, which acts like a tax on exports.
4 min read
How Will Trump’s Universal and China Tariffs Impact the Economy?
President-elect Trump may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire. Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy.
5 min read
The European VAT is Not a Discriminatory Tax Against US Exports
The Trump administration appears to be moving in a “reciprocal” policy direction despite the significant negative economic consequences for American consumers of across-the-board tariffs on goods coming into the US. However, the EU’s VAT system should not be used as a justification for retaliatory tariffs.
6 min read
Donald Trump Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min read
Trump’s Tariff Proposals Would Raise Tariff Rates to Great Depression-Era Levels
Using tariff policy to reallocate investment and jobs is a costly mistake—that’s a history lesson we should not forget.
6 min read
Revenue Estimates of Trump’s Universal Baseline Tariffs
Lawmakers will need to pursue fiscal responsibility as they address the tax law expirations, but fiscal responsibility requires finding sound ways to pay for spending priorities. Tariffs don’t make the cut.
4 min read
Why the Economic Effects of Taxes (Including Tariffs) Matter
Estimating the economic effects of different types of taxes informs policymakers about the trade-offs of raising revenue in a given way.
5 min read
2024 Election Insights | Can Trump’s Tariff Plan Really Replace the Income Tax?
Can tariffs truly replace income taxes in today’s economy? In this episode, we examine the bold and controversial proposal from former President Trump to replace income taxes with tariffs. What would this dramatic shift mean for everyday Americans, particularly those with lower incomes? And would it actually work?
All Related Articles
We Tracked Every Trump Tariff Change for a Year. Here’s What We Found.
One year later, the evidence shows the tariffs were not reciprocal, did not generate the promised investment boom, raised less revenue than projected, and contributed to higher prices.
Liberation Day Was One Year Ago: Did the President’s Tariff Promises Happen?
One year after “Liberation Day,” evidence shows President Trump’s tariffs were not reciprocal, did not generate the promised investment boom, raised less revenue than projected, and contributed to higher prices.
7 min read
Congress Has 150 Days To Prove It Still Holds the Power of the Purse. Will It?
Unlike the IEEPA tariffs, which were stopped by the Supreme Court, the new Sec. 122 tariffs require congressional authorization after 150 days.
Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min read
Pharmaceutical Tariffs Would Add Costs and Reduce Innovation
Thought the Trump administration has not yet imposed new, industry-specific tariffs on drugs or active pharmaceutical ingredients, such tariffs would be a hidden cost on Americans: they would shrink incomes, reduce investment, and lead to less innovation.
7 min read
FAQs About Border Adjustment
What is a border adjustment? Is it a new idea? How would it work in practice?
11 min read
Tariffs Increased Retail Prices of Imports by 7 Percentage Points Prior to Supreme Court Ruling
President Trump and those in his administration have insisted that consumers are not bearing any of the tariffs. But the latest data show exactly the opposite.
5 min read
Trump Tariffs Threaten to Offset Much of the “Big Beautiful Bill” Tax Cuts
The tariffs now in effect threaten to offset much of the GDP growth from the tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them.
3 min read
Trump Tariffs Blocked by the Supreme Court (What’s Next?)
Last Friday, the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs in a landmark 6-3 decision.
2026 State of the Union: Five Things to Know
President Trump is scheduled to deliver the annual State of the Union address to Congress. The speech is bound to address a multitude of topics, but taxes and (especially) tariffs will certainly feature prominently.
6 min read
Supreme Court Strikes Down President Trump’s Tariffs
The Supreme Court ruling against the IEEPA tariffs provides immediate relief to US businesses and workers and is a welcome rebuke of President Trump’s overreach of executive authority to unilaterally impose significant tax hikes on the US economy.
6 min read
Poland Considering a Second Harmful Digital Tax
Poland is proposing to broaden and raise its digital services tax (DST) from 1.5 percent to 3 percent. Because DSTs tax revenues, not profits, a company with a 10 percent profit margin would face a 30 percent effective tax rate on digital services provided in Poland.
6 min read
Lessons From European Geoeconomics & The Future Of International Tax Policy
European policymakers would be wise to refocus tax and trade policies on what is good for Europe rather than trying to change policies in countries beyond European borders. Meanwhile, the Trump administration would be wise to recognize that the transatlantic relationship is a geoeconomic asset that can be mutually beneficial.
Even After Exemptions, More than Half of Food Products Continue to Face Trump Tariffs
The Trump tariffs will likely raise the cost of food for Americans, particularly for liqueurs and spirits, baked goods, coffee, fish, and beer.
4 min read
Will the OBBBA Tax Cuts Grow the US Economy?
Over the long run, OBBBA’s permanent extension of lower marginal tax rates on work, saving, and investment lays a solid foundation for stronger economic growth.
6 min read
The Weird Ways Taxes Impact Behavior
What do beards, chickens, and windows have in common? Surprisingly, taxes.
2025 Tax Review | What OBBBA Changed, the Impact of Tariffs, and What’s Next
In this episode, we break down what the OBBBA did, walk through our projections, and zoom out to other defining fights of 2025: Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the Supreme Court challenge over presidential tariff power, and the growing wave of property tax revolts across the states.
How Does the OBBBA Impact Debt, Deficits, and Tax Revenue?
Our modeling indicates the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will boost economic growth but increase deficits, leading to record high debt in 2028 that rises to 124 percent of GDP by 2034.
7 min read
IEEPA Tariffs Are Down from April Threats
Since April, the tariffs that have been implemented in practice are mostly, but not exclusively, lower than what was originally threatened.
5 min read
Tariff Dividends Would Cost More than Tariff Revenues Will Generate
Under nearly any design option, sending out $2,000 payments to Americans would increase, not decrease, the federal budget deficit. A better way to provide relief from the burden of tariffs would be to eliminate the tariffs.
4 min read