FAQ: The One Big Beautiful Bill, Explained
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
24 min readThe mission of our federal program is to promote tax and fiscal policy that leads to greater U.S. competitiveness, higher economic growth, and improved quality of life for all taxpayers.
We have several projects, such as the Growth and Opportunity Agenda and Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code, which help us educate taxpayers, journalists, and policymakers on how the U.S. tax system works and the impact of federal tax changes on taxpayers and the economy.
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Since 2012, we have used our Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model to analyze dozens of legislative and campaign tax proposals, including every major tax plan put forth during the 2016 presidential campaigns, the House GOP’s 2016 Tax Reform Blueprint, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and President Biden’s tax reform agenda. See Our Economic and Tax Modeling
For a look at where tax modeling started, explore the extensive body of work from the Institute for Research on the Economics of Taxation (IRET), the think tank that pioneered dynamic tax modeling. Explore the IRET Archives
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Cost Recovery | Taxes & Inflation | Taxes on Savers & Investors | Carbon Taxes
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
24 min read
How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
4 min read
We estimate the OBBBA will reduce federal taxes on average for individual taxpayers in every state. Across all individual tax filers throughout the US, the average tax cut per taxpayer will be over $3,700 in 2026.
4 min read
We estimate the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would increase long-run GDP by 1.2 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $5 trillion over the next decade on a conventional basis.
11 min read
The Trump tariffs amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,200 in 2025 and $1,600 in 2026.
44 min read
Could tariffs, a form of government finance heavily relied upon in the 18th and 19th centuries, function as a major source of revenue for a modern, developed economy in the 21st century?
16 min read
President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law on July 4, 2025.
18 min read
Permanently extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would boost long-run economic output by 1.1 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, wages by 0.5 percent, and hours worked by 847,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
6 min read
Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
21 min read
This tax reform plan would boost long-run GDP by 2.5%, grow wages by 1.4%, and add 1.3M jobs, all while collecting a similar amount of tax revenue as the current code and reducing the long-run debt burden.
38 min read
Given the poor state of the budget process and worsening debt trajectory, lawmakers should move boldly and quickly to address the issue, including via a fiscal commission process. Issues to consider should include reforms to both spending and taxes.
42 min read
A growing international tax agreement known as Pillar Two presents two new threats to the US tax base: potential lost revenue and limitations on Congress’s ability to set its own tax policy.
39 min read
The Trump tariffs amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,200 in 2025 and $1,600 in 2026.
44 min read
Policymakers are considering ways to extend the enhancements made to Affordable Care Act premium tax credits that expire at the end of the year, which could cost $350 billion over the next decade. Any expansion of the credits should be offset by reducing other healthcare subsidies or preferences in the tax code, the largest of which is the exclusion for employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) premiums, estimated to cost more than $5 trillion over the next decade due to reduced income and payroll tax revenue.
10 min read
While the OBBBA brings some stability by making many of the TCJA’s reforms permanent, it generally fails to reform the tax code’s accumulating complexity.
31 min read
For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
39 min read
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
24 min read
We estimate the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would increase long-run GDP by 1.2 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $5 trillion over the next decade on a conventional basis.
11 min read