Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The Trump tariffs are the largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP since 1993 and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,500 in 2026.
48 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs are the largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP since 1993 and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,500 in 2026.
48 min read
How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
4 min read
The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
122 min read
Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
24 min read
For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
39 min read
As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
52 min read
We estimate the OBBBA will reduce federal taxes on average for individual taxpayers in every state. Across all individual tax filers throughout the US, the average tax cut per taxpayer will be over $3,700 in 2026.
4 min read
Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
2 min read
While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
93 min read
New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
6 min read
The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
55 min read
Our analysis of the major tax provisions included in the OBBBA finds it will increase long-run GDP by 0.7 percent. The major tax provisions will reduce federal tax revenue by nearly $5.2 trillion between 2025 and 2034, on a conventional basis.
12 min read
The Trump tariffs are the largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP since 1993 and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,500 in 2026.
48 min read
With changes to payroll taxes likely to be part of a toolkit for reform, both policymakers and the public would benefit from understanding how the payroll tax works, who pays it, and its impact on the economy.
21 min read
A focus on sustained growth, meaningful metrics, and institutional capabilities that keep simplification a focus in future regulatory efforts should underpin the decluttering agenda.
8 min read
If all 50 states established legal, open, statewide sports gaming markets, a 10 percent GGR tax would generate an additional $1.6 billion per year in tax revenue.
21 min read
Michigan’s proposed 5 percent income surtax on high earners, yielding a top marginal rate of 9.25 percent, is also a tax on the small businesses that employ nearly 2 million Michiganders.
25 min read
As a result of state-level reforms, the expansion of the sales tax base, and rising property valuations, North Carolina’s local governments have seen remarkable revenue growth in recent years.
13 min read
The 2026 Billionaire Tax Act, a California ballot initiative, would ostensibly impose a one-time tax of 5 percent on the net worth of the state’s billionaires. Due, however, to aggressive design choices and possible drafting errors, the actual rate on taxpayers’ net worth could be dramatically higher.
18 min read
Data centers face high tax burdens and are particularly substantial contributors to local coffers, but poor tax structure can drive these operations to other locations and deprive local governments of a major revenue stream.
22 min read
Forty-three states will ring in 2026 with notable tax changes. Eight states will see reduced individual income tax rates in the new year while four states will see reduced corporate income tax rates.
30 min read
Public Law 86-272’s vague language, limited scope, and failure to evolve with modern commerce has rendered it increasingly ineffective, burdening businesses with heightened litigation and compliance challenges.
26 min read
Examples from other countries and US states show that well-designed user fees can fund transportation infrastructure effectively.
19 min read
With Proposition 2 ½, property taxes in Massachusetts are still high, but without it, property tax bills would have risen significantly more than they already have in the past 40 years.
12 min read
Due to the incentive for jurisdictions to implement a qualified domestic minimum top-up tax (QDMTT), Pillar Two leaves a geographic asymmetry. Additional tax revenues would predominantly accrue to low-tax jurisdictions, with high tax jurisdictions receiving little to no increase.
2 min read
The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
122 min read
The 2025 Spanish Regional Tax Competitiveness Index allows policymakers and taxpayers to evaluate and measure how their regions’ tax systems compare.
7 min read
New evidence shows the scale and distribution of compliance costs for EU firms affected by Pillar Two, i.e., the “Global Minimum Tax.”
6 min read
While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
93 min read
Backfilling forgone local property tax revenue through new state taxes is difficult because it dramatically shifts overall tax burdens, undermines local accountability, and cannot easily adjust for changing population mixes.
20 min read
Policymakers are considering ways to extend the enhancements made to Affordable Care Act premium tax credits that expire at the end of the year, which could cost $350 billion over the next decade. Any expansion of the credits should be offset by reducing other healthcare subsidies or preferences in the tax code, the largest of which is the exclusion for employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) premiums, estimated to cost more than $5 trillion over the next decade due to reduced income and payroll tax revenue.
10 min read