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Trump Tariff & Trade Policy and the Economy

No, Tariffs Are Not Strengthening the Economy

Testifying to Congress, United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer argued that “President Trump’s trade policy is working.” The data present a different picture: President Trump’s trade agenda is actually holding back the economy.

Can Tax Hikes on the Rich Solve the US National Debt Crisis? Social Security Medicare Spending Entitlement Reform

Can Tax Reform Solve the Debt Problem—or Just Slow It?

This study simulates several large tax increases and consistently finds that even tax increases large enough to close the primary deficit in the near term will lose ground over time and fail to put the debt on a sustainable course. 

41 min read
Germany Tax Burden on Labor and Consumption, Vale-Added Tax Base

Shifting Germany’s Tax Burden from Labor to Consumption Requires a Broad VAT Base

Shifting Germany’s tax mix away from labor to consumption remains a sound policy route to strengthen the country’s labor supply, but further eroding the VAT base with preferential rates for selected goods and services would counteract this goal by depleting the extra revenue for labor tax cuts while providing less-targeted relief for low-income households.

6 min read
California Worldwide Combined Reporting, CA Corporate Income Taxation

California’s Mandatory Worldwide Combined Reporting Proposal Is a Mistake

California lawmakers are considering mandating worldwide combined reporting, bringing back a policy the state abandoned in the 1980s due to strong pushback from international trading partners and the federal government. The policy failed to work as intended then and doesn’t make any better sense now.

8 min read
Tax Burden on Labor in Europe, 2026

Tax Burden on Labor in Europe, 2026

To make the taxation of labor more efficient, policymakers should understand their country’s tax wedge and how their tax burden funds government services.

5 min read
Windfall Profits Taxes on Oil and Gas in Europe

Windfall Profits Taxes on Oil and Gas Should Be Left in the Past

Windfall taxes, particularly those imposed on the oil and gas industry, often appear as a quick fix for governments seeking to raise revenue during periods of high commodity prices. However, while these taxes may offer short-term revenues, they can also trigger negative consequences that undermine their intended purpose.

21 min read
Summary of the Latest Federal Income Tax Data, Tax Year 2023 2026 update of IRS data of who pays federal income taxes the most

Summary of the Latest Federal Income Tax Data, Tax Year 2023

New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).

6 min read
We are living in an age of hyperbole, or as writer Matthew Hennessey calls it, the “Age of Excusability,” in which our politicians succeed by making outlandish claims. So it goes with the One Big Beautiful Bill, which will usher in a new golden age or send us down the tubes for good, depending on your sources.

Testimony: The Impact of the 2025 Reconciliation Law’s Tax Changes on Small Businesses and Lessons for Future Tax Reform

Policymakers should broaden and make permanent full expensing for additional asset classes and pursue structural reforms that reduce distortions in how businesses are taxed. A more consistent and predictable policy environment, paired with targeted improvements to loss treatment, R&D incentives, and compliance burdens, would give small business owners greater confidence to invest, hire, and grow.

Economic Impact of Tariffs, trade tensions, trade, china tariffs

American Compass’s “Tariff Tally” Doesn’t Add Up

The evidence overall paints a far different picture than American Compass presents, and a consistent theoretical framework undercuts its assertions of how tariffs should be expected to impact the economy moving forward.

25 min read
state full expensing permanent to curb inflation Cost Recovery and Full Expensing

The OBBBA Improved the Treatment of Investment—but There’s Still Work to Do

The OBBBA significantly boosted economic prospects by improving the treatment of investment. By making key expensing provisions permanent, the OBBBA created better conditions for long-term growth. However, there’s still work to be done, and the OBBBA provided a blueprint for policymakers to follow.

4 min read