Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
On April 10, the House adopted the Senate’s amended version of the budget resolution, which allows $5.3 trillion in deficit-financed tax cuts.
9 min read
Featured Articles
Making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Permanent: Economic, Revenue, and Distributional Effects
Permanently extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would boost long-run economic output by 1.1 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, wages by 0.5 percent, and hours worked by 847,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
6 min read
Tax Calculator: How the TCJA’s Expiration Will Affect You
Unless Congress acts, Americans are in for a tax hike in 2026.
3 min read
Expiring TCJA Tax Provisions in 2026 Would Produce Substantial Tax Hike across the US
At the end of 2025, the individual tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire all at once. Without congressional action, most taxpayers will see a notable tax increase relative to current policy in 2026.
4 min read
Options for Navigating the 2025 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Expirations
Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
21 min read
How 2026 Tax Brackets Would Change if the TCJA Expires
If Congress allows the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) to expire as scheduled, most aspects of the individual income tax would undergo substantial changes, resulting in more than 62 percent of tax filers experiencing tax increases in 2026.
3 min read
Conference on Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s Effects Shows Further Tax Reforms Needed in 2025
Lawmakers should see 2025 as an opportunity to consider more fundamental tax reforms. While the TCJA addressed some of the deficiencies of the tax code, it by no means addressed them all.
8 min read
Considering Tax Reform Options for 2025 (and Beyond)
Given that U.S. debt is roughly the size of our annual economic output, policymakers will face many tough fiscal choices in the coming years. The good news is there are policies that both support a larger economy and avoid adding to the debt.
6 min read
Another Huge Federal Deficit in Fiscal Year 2024 Despite Surging Corporate and Other Tax Collections
While federal tax collections—especially corporate taxes—have reached historically high levels, these gains have not kept pace with escalating spending, particularly on debt interest, leading to a substantial and concerning budget deficit in FY24.
6 min read
Why Are the Individual Tax Cuts Expiring?
The TCJA improved the U.S. tax code, but the meandering voyage of its passing and the compromises made to get it into law show the challenges of the legislative process.
6 min read
TCJA Family Provisions Offer Template for Tax Reform in 2025
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s changes to family tax policy serve as a reminder to avoid looking at tax reform provisions in a vacuum.
5 min read
How the TCJA Affected Legal Business Forms
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) significantly lowered the effective tax rates on business income, but the impact was not the same for C corporations and pass-through businesses.
6 min read
How Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Change Cost Recovery?
As lawmakers consider which policies to prioritize in the upcoming tax policy debates, better cost recovery for all investment should be top of mind.
7 min read
Tax Reform Offsets Shouldn’t Offset Economic Growth
Pro-growth tax reform that does not add to the deficit will require tough choices, but whether to raise the corporate tax rate is not one of them. If lawmakers want to craft fiscally responsible and pro-growth tax reform, a higher corporate tax rate simply does not fit into the puzzle.
3 min read
New Study Finds TCJA Strongly Boosted Corporate Investment
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the largest corporate tax reform in a generation, lowering the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent, temporarily allowing full expensing for short-lived assets (referred to as bonus depreciation), and overhauling the international tax code.
6 min read
How Have Federal Revenues Evolved since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act?
As members of Congress prepare to address the expiration of the TCJA, they should appreciate how revenues have evolved since 2017.
4 min read
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS Act: Comparing and Contrasting the New Industrial Policy
While the approaches differ, they share a reliance on similar linkages: new capital investment drives productivity growth, which grows the economy and raises wages for workers.
37 min read
The Impact of GILTI, FDII, and BEAT
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) reformed the U.S. system for taxing international corporate income. Understanding the impact of TCJA’s international provisions thus far can help lawmakers consider how to approach international tax policy in the coming years.
30 min readAll Related Articles
Post-Election Breakdown
The 2022 midterm elections are wrapping up, and taxpayers are looking at a divided Congress for the next two years. Senior Policy Analyst Garrett Watson sits down with Jesse to give a quick analysis of what these elections mean for tax policy.
Shaky Economic and Fiscal Outlook Requires Stable and Pro-Growth Tax Extenders Policy
Policymakers face a difficult balancing act this year in what is likely to be an unusual tax extenders season.
6 min read
Difficult Trade-Offs Make Policy Consensus on Child Tax Credit Elusive
As we near this year’s “lame duck” session of Congress, there has been renewed interest in reforming the child tax credit as part of a tax deal. Our new analysis highlights the trade-offs that policymakers will face
5 min read
Details and Analysis of Canceling the Scheduled Business Tax Increases in Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
The business tax changes originally introduced in the TCJA are scheduled to increase tax burdens on businesses at a time when economic headwinds and broader uncertainty are higher than they have been in decades.
12 min read
Permanent 100 Percent Bonus Depreciation Even More Important When Inflation Is Elevated
We find that the dynamic cost of permanent bonus depreciation rises by about 7 percent under 4 percent inflation, but the economic benefit, measured by the size of the economy, rises by about 25 percent.
4 min read
Should We Tax University Endowments?
Taxing university endowments has gained popularity recently, partly in response to the Biden administration’s forgiveness of student loan debt. Some view it as a means of holding universities accountable for the product they’re selling. Others view it as a tool to tamp down tuition rates or punish ideological opponents. But do these arguments hold water and is an endowment tax sound policy?
7 min read
2023 Tax Brackets
The IRS recently released the new inflation adjusted 2023 tax brackets and rates. Explore updated credits, deductions, and exemptions, including the standard deduction & personal exemption, Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), Child Tax Credit (CTC), capital gains brackets, qualified business income deduction (199A), and the annual exclusion for gifts.
4 min read
The Woes of Temporary Tax Policy
From the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017 to the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law just this summer, lawmakers across the political spectrum are often tempted to implement temporary tax reforms. Garrett Watson joins Jesse to discuss the pros and cons of writing tax laws that have an end date and why we find ourselves having a debate at the end of each year about so many temporary provisions.
The Economic, Revenue, and Distributional Effects of Permanent 100 Percent Bonus Depreciation
The phaseout of 100 percent bonus depreciation, scheduled to take place after the end of 2022, will increase the after-tax cost of investment in the U.S. Permanently extending it would increase long-run economic output by 0.4 percent and increase employment by 73,000 FTE jobs.
20 min read
New Research Shows Positive Long-Run Effects from Corporate Tax Cuts
Policymakers should continue to focus on longer term impacts rather than emphasizing the short-term stimulus effects of tax cuts.
3 min read
Sources of Personal Income, Tax Year 2019
Reviewing reported income helps to understand the composition of the federal government’s revenue base and how Americans earn their taxable income. The individual income tax, the federal government’s largest source of revenue, is largely a tax on labor.
10 min read
Biden and OECD Tax Proposals Would Hurt FDI
Academic research indicates foreign direct investment (FDI) is highly responsive to the corporate effective tax rate (ETRs); that is, the tax rate after accounting for all deduction and credits available to corporations.
3 min read
Trends in FDI Before and After the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
Overall, the data shows outbound FDI shifted from low-tax to other jurisdictions, while inbound FDI remained largely unchanged.
3 min read
An International Tax Agenda for Congress on the Anniversary of the Global Tax Deal
Congress should prioritize evaluation of recent international tax trends and the model rules and adjust U.S. rules in a way that supports investment and innovation and moves towards simplicity.
25 min read
How FDI Adds Value to Supply Chains
Although the dispersion of our supply chains throughout the world has been scrutinized in recent years, both inbound and outbound foreign direct investment are critical to sustaining supply chain resiliency and reducing economic risks for both firms and investors.
5 min read
Pro-Growth Tax Reforms Throughout the Republican Study Committee’s FY 2023 Budget
The United States needs to grow its way out of inflation and set the economy up for continued growth—the tax code provides tools for policymakers to do just that.
3 min read
3 Takeaways from the New Congressional Budget Office Outlook
The CBO projections show policymakers’ top priority over the next five years will need to be cleaning up our country’s fiscal situation while maintaining a pro-growth and competitive tax code.
5 min read
Delaying R&D Amortization Generates Short-Term Revenue but No Long-Term Economic Benefit
Starting this year, firms must amortize their research and development (R&D) expenses over five years rather than immediately deduct them from taxable income, a policy change designed to raise federal tax revenue in the short term.
5 min read