Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
10 min read
Featured Articles
Making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Permanent: Economic, Revenue, and Distributional Effects
Permanently extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would boost long-run economic output by 1.1 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, wages by 0.5 percent, and hours worked by 847,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
6 min read
Tax Calculator: How the TCJA’s Expiration Will Affect You
Unless Congress acts, Americans are in for a tax hike in 2026.
3 min read
Expiring TCJA Tax Provisions in 2026 Would Produce Substantial Tax Hike across the US
At the end of 2025, the individual tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire all at once. Without congressional action, most taxpayers will see a notable tax increase relative to current policy in 2026.
4 min read
Options for Navigating the 2025 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Expirations
Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
21 min read
How 2026 Tax Brackets Would Change if the TCJA Expires
If Congress allows the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) to expire as scheduled, most aspects of the individual income tax would undergo substantial changes, resulting in more than 62 percent of tax filers experiencing tax increases in 2026.
3 min read
Conference on Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s Effects Shows Further Tax Reforms Needed in 2025
Lawmakers should see 2025 as an opportunity to consider more fundamental tax reforms. While the TCJA addressed some of the deficiencies of the tax code, it by no means addressed them all.
8 min read
Considering Tax Reform Options for 2025 (and Beyond)
Given that U.S. debt is roughly the size of our annual economic output, policymakers will face many tough fiscal choices in the coming years. The good news is there are policies that both support a larger economy and avoid adding to the debt.
6 min read
Another Huge Federal Deficit in Fiscal Year 2024 Despite Surging Corporate and Other Tax Collections
While federal tax collections—especially corporate taxes—have reached historically high levels, these gains have not kept pace with escalating spending, particularly on debt interest, leading to a substantial and concerning budget deficit in FY24.
6 min read
Why Are the Individual Tax Cuts Expiring?
The TCJA improved the U.S. tax code, but the meandering voyage of its passing and the compromises made to get it into law show the challenges of the legislative process.
6 min read
TCJA Family Provisions Offer Template for Tax Reform in 2025
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s changes to family tax policy serve as a reminder to avoid looking at tax reform provisions in a vacuum.
5 min read
How the TCJA Affected Legal Business Forms
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) significantly lowered the effective tax rates on business income, but the impact was not the same for C corporations and pass-through businesses.
6 min read
How Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Change Cost Recovery?
As lawmakers consider which policies to prioritize in the upcoming tax policy debates, better cost recovery for all investment should be top of mind.
7 min read
Tax Reform Offsets Shouldn’t Offset Economic Growth
Pro-growth tax reform that does not add to the deficit will require tough choices, but whether to raise the corporate tax rate is not one of them. If lawmakers want to craft fiscally responsible and pro-growth tax reform, a higher corporate tax rate simply does not fit into the puzzle.
3 min read
New Study Finds TCJA Strongly Boosted Corporate Investment
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the largest corporate tax reform in a generation, lowering the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent, temporarily allowing full expensing for short-lived assets (referred to as bonus depreciation), and overhauling the international tax code.
6 min read
How Have Federal Revenues Evolved since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act?
As members of Congress prepare to address the expiration of the TCJA, they should appreciate how revenues have evolved since 2017.
4 min read
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS Act: Comparing and Contrasting the New Industrial Policy
While the approaches differ, they share a reliance on similar linkages: new capital investment drives productivity growth, which grows the economy and raises wages for workers.
37 min read
The Impact of GILTI, FDII, and BEAT
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) reformed the U.S. system for taxing international corporate income. Understanding the impact of TCJA’s international provisions thus far can help lawmakers consider how to approach international tax policy in the coming years.
30 min readAll Related Articles
Tax Extenders Hitch a Ride on Omnibus and COVID-19 Relief Deal
Tax extenders are no stranger to hitching a last-minute ride on year-end legislation. This year they made another last-minute appearance, finding a hold in their own division of the 5,593-page bill to fund the government through the fiscal year and provide additional coronavirus relief through March.
2 min read
Outlining a Path for Tax Policy Compromises
While a sweeping tax policy bill is unlikely in the near future, lawmakers may be able to come together on a smaller scale. Pairing better cost recovery on a permanent basis with support for vulnerable households as well as additional pandemic-related relief would help promote a more rapid return to growth and help businesses and households weather the ongoing crisis.
4 min read
Navigating the 2020 Tax Extenders in the Pandemic Economy
At the end of 2020, 33 temporary tax provisions are scheduled to expire at the federal level. These provisions generally fall under four categories: cost recovery, energy, individual, and other business provisions.
20 min read
Potential Regulatory Changes in Tax Policy Under the Biden Administration
President Biden may make greater use of regulatory changes to modify how tax law is interpreted and administered. There are several areas where a Biden Treasury Department, likely led by former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, may focus.
3 min read
No ‘Stealth Tax Hike’ in 2021, but Individual and Business Tax Increases Loom
While there are many tax changes built into the tax code over the coming years for individuals and businesses, the recent claim that lower- and middle-income Americans may see a “stealth tax increase” in 2021 due to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is untrue.
3 min read
Prospects for Federal Tax Policy After the 2020 Election
President Biden and Congress should concentrate on areas of common ground, finding incremental places to improve the tax code. A bipartisan bill recently introduced to help retirement savings is a good model for what incremental reform may look like.
4 min read
A Preliminary Look at 2019 Tax Data for Individuals
The latest IRS data continues to illustrate that the net effect of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was to reduce effective tax rates across income groups. In 2019, the TCJA again expanded the use of several deductions and credits, made the standard deduction more favorable than itemizing, and lowered taxes for most taxpayers.
4 min read
How Would Biden’s Tax Plan Change the Competitiveness of the U.S. Tax Code?
While the Biden campaign is certainly focused on increasing taxes on U.S. businesses and high-income earners, it is important that policymakers also understand what that reversal might do to U.S. competitiveness, and the competitive global environment in which U.S. companies and U.S. workers operate.
3 min read
Role of the 2017 Tax Reform in the Nascent U.S. Economic Recovery
While there is still plenty of work to be done to get unemployed Americans back to work, the U.S. economy as a whole is now recovering strongly from the pandemic-induced economic downturn, outperforming forecasts from earlier in the year and outperforming most other developed countries.
4 min read
Reviewing the Commitment to American GROWTH Act
House Republicans recently introduced HR 11, the Commitment to American GROWTH Act, outlining an alternative to Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s tax vision. The proposal would address upcoming expirations of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and create or expand other tax provisions designed to boost domestic investment.
5 min read
Congressional Budget Office Releases 2017 Data on Household Income and Tax Burdens
Contrary to the perceptions of some, new data indicate that (1) income earned after taxes and transfers has increased over the past several decades for all income groups; (2) the federal tax system is increasingly progressive; and (3) that system relies heavily on higher earners to raise revenue for government services and means-tested transfers.
3 min read
A Carbon Tax to Make the TCJA’s Individual Provisions Permanent
Making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s individual provisions permanent combined with a carbon tax can be a revenue-neutral trade and increase the long-run size of the economy by 1 percent, making it a sustainable pro-growth option.
23 min read
President Trump Outlines Second Term Tax Ideas
Broad themes of the president’s agenda include providing tax relief to individuals and tax credits to businesses that engage in desired activities, while the status of expiring TCJA provisions and tariffs seems uncertain.
4 min read
Reviewing Joe Biden’s Tax Vision
Biden’s tax vision is twofold: higher taxes on high-income earners and businesses paired with more generous provisions for specific activities and households.
4 min read
