Tonight, President Joe Biden formally accepts the Democratic nomination for President, ending a long primary season that saw competing policy visions from the many candidates, including in tax policy. However, questions about Biden’s tax proposals, such as when and how fast he would push for taxA tax is a mandatory payment or charge collected by local, state, and national governments from individuals or businesses to cover the costs of general government services, goods, and activities. hikes, remain to be clarified headed into the fall campaign.
Biden has not released a single formal tax plan, but he has proposed many tax changes and increases connected to spending proposals related to issues like climate change, infrastructure, health care, education, and research & development. Most of these proposals center around raising income taxes on high earners as well as on businesses. Selected highlights of Biden’s tax increases include:
- Repealing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) individual income tax reductions for those earning over $400,000 and restoring the top marginal income tax rate to 39.6 percent from today’s 37 percent. The Section 199A deduction would also be phased out for those earning over $400,000.
- Taxing capital gains at ordinary income tax rates—up from a top rate of 23.8 percent today—for those earning over $1 million. Biden would also eliminate step-up in basisThe step-up in basis provision adjusts the value, or “cost basis,” of an inherited asset (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) when it is passed on, after death. This often reduces the capital gains tax owed by the recipient. The cost basis receives a “step-up” to its fair market value, or the price at which the good would be sold or purchased in a fair market. This eliminates the capital gain that occurred between the original purchase of the asset and the heir’s acquisition, reducing the heir’s tax liability. for inherited assets with capital gains, instead taxing those gains at death.
- Capping the value of itemized deductions to 28 percent for those in higher marginal tax brackets and restoring the Pease limitation on itemized deductions for those with taxable income above $400,000.
- Raising the corporate income tax from 21 percent to 28 percent.
- Imposing a 15 percent minimum book tax on corporations with $100 million or greater in income.
- Doubling the tax rate on Global Intangible Low Tax Income (GILTI) earned by foreign subsidiaries of U.S. firms, from 10.5 percent to 21 percent.
- Imposing the 12.4 percent Social Security payroll tax on wage and self-employment income earned above $400,000.
Using the Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model, we estimate that Biden’s tax proposals would raise about $3.8 trillion over 10 years. The plan would also reduce long-run economic growth by 1.51 percent and eliminate about 585,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
While Biden’s tax plan would make the tax code more progressive, it would reduce after-tax incomes for filers across the income spectrum by reducing the incentive to work and invest in the United States. On average, taxpayers would see a 1.7 percent reduction in after-tax incomeAfter-tax income is the net amount of income available to invest, save, or consume after federal, state, and withholding taxes have been applied—your disposable income. Companies and, to a lesser extent, individuals, make economic decisions in light of how they can best maximize their earnings. on a conventional basis by 2030, ranging from a 0.7 percent decline for those in the bottom quintile of the income distribution to a 7.8 percent decline for earners in the top 1 percent.
A prospective Biden administration will have to consider how fast and how far to enact the variety of tax increases that the candidate has proposed so far, as the American economy is still struggling with the coronavirus pandemic and economic hardship. If enacted too fast, tax hikes may undercut a nascent economic recovery next year. Tentatively, it seems Biden may be open to delaying some of his tax proposals until economic conditions improve. However, additional details about what a Biden administration would want to see before entertaining tax hikes would increase policy certainty moving forward if he won the election.
In addition to tax increases, Biden proposes a variety of tax incentives that are meant to encourage specific kinds of activity, ranging from carbon capture and storage to an $8,000 tax credit for childcare. In addition to those tax credits, he proposes:
- A restoration of the electric vehicle tax creditA tax credit is a provision that reduces a taxpayer’s final tax bill, dollar-for-dollar. A tax credit differs from deductions and exemptions, which reduce taxable income, rather than the taxpayer’s tax bill directly.
- Tax credits for residential energy efficiency
- Making permanent the New Markets Tax Credit
- Establishing a Manufacturing Communities Tax Credit
- A renter’s credit to reduce rent and utilities to 30 percent of income
- An expanded Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for those older than 65
- A $5,000 tax credit for informal caregivers
- Expanding the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC)
- A reinstated Solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC)
- A tax credit for childcare facilities built by businesses
- Providing a 26 percent tax credit to match traditional retirement contributions as a replacement to deductibility of those contributions (Roth treatment remains unchanged)
- Establishing a First Down Payment Tax Credit of up to $15,000
Despite these tax credit proposals, Biden has not gone as far as his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris (CA), when it comes to expanding the generosity and eligibility of major tax credits such as the Child Tax Credit (CTC) and the EITC. Harris has endorsed a plan that would cost over $2.7 trillion over 10 years, nearly matching the revenue raised from all of Biden’s tax increases. House Democrats have also endorsed more generous tax credits to help vulnerable households, which may be an alternative starting point for Biden.
Biden’s tax vision is twofold: higher taxes on high-income earners and businesses paired with more generous provisions for specific activities and households. Given the current economic landscape, as households and businesses are still reckoning with the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, the former part of the Democratic nominee’s tax vision may have to be put on hold if he wins the election.