Erica York is Vice President of Federal Tax Policy with Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy. She previously worked as an auditor at a large community bank in Kansas and interned at Tax Foundation’s Center for State Tax Policy.
Her analysis has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Politico, and other national and international media outlets. She holds a master’s degree in Economics from Wichita State University and an undergraduate degree in Business Administration and Economics from Sterling (KS) College, where she is currently an adjunct professor. Erica lives in Kansas with her husband and their two children.
When taxpayers file their 2025 tax returns in 2026, many will see larger refunds than in recent years. That’s due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which reduced individual income taxes for 2025 by an estimated $129 billion.
4 min read
The Trump tariffs are the largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP since 1993 and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,500 in 2026.
45 min read
In this episode, we break down what the OBBBA did, walk through our projections, and zoom out to other defining fights of 2025: Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the Supreme Court challenge over presidential tariff power, and the growing wave of property tax revolts across the states.
Many policies, such as minimum wage levels, tax brackets, and means-tested public benefit income thresholds, are denominated in nominal dollars, even though a dollar in one region may go much further than a dollar in another. Lawmakers should keep that reality in mind as they make changes to tax and economic policies.
6 min read
Since April, the tariffs that have been implemented in practice are mostly, but not exclusively, lower than what was originally threatened.
5 min read
Under nearly any design option, sending out $2,000 payments to Americans would increase, not decrease, the federal budget deficit. A better way to provide relief from the burden of tariffs would be to eliminate the tariffs.
4 min read
Several political leaders, including the White House, have touted the OBBBA as the “largest tax cut in American history.” While significant, the OBBBA is not the largest tax cut in American history; it’s the sixth largest.
3 min read
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act contains several key policies that will affect how many taxpayers itemize, and how itemizers may benefit from deducting charitable donations.
4 min read
The US Supreme Court heard oral arguments on November 5 to determine whether the president’s emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) include the power to impose tariffs.
6 min read
In this episode of The Deduction, we unpack Trump’s tariffs as they head to the Supreme Court. We break down scenarios if the Court upholds or strikes the tariffs, who really pays, and how Congress might respond—your concise guide to tariffs and the Supreme Court.
The Supreme Court is deciding a case over whether the President can impose sweeping tax increases on imported goods. It’s a multi-trillion-dollar question with enormous implications for the US economy, taxpayers, and limitations on emergency powers.
5 min read
Trump’s 2025 tariffs will hit nearly three-quarters of US food imports, raising prices on products that are often difficult or impossible to produce domestically. Senator Hawley has proposed a rebate program to return some of the revenue to households—but would it actually help?
Our analysis finds that the Trump tariffs threaten to offset much of the economic benefits of the new tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them.
3 min read
We estimate the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would increase long-run GDP by 1.2 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $5 trillion over the next decade on a conventional basis.
11 min read
President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law on July 4, 2025.
18 min read
Congress is racing to pass the One Big Beautiful Tax Bill before the July 4 deadline. In this episode, Kyle Hulehan and Erica York break down what just happened over the weekend, what’s actually in the bill, and what comes next as the House and Senate try to reconcile their differences.
The House-passed reconciliation bill leaves out Trump’s promise to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, opting instead to expand the standard deduction for seniors.
Rather than permanently expanding a complicated, nonneutral tax break, Congress should prioritize permanence for the most neutral and pro-growth policies like bonus depreciation and R&D expensing.
6 min read
Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions increase long-run GDP by 0.8 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
9 min read
From generous tax breaks to costly trade-offs, the House GOP’s One, Big, Beautiful Bill has a little of everything. It’s a sweeping attempt to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act before they expire in 2026—but what’s actually in it?