Tariff Refunds Have Wiped Out Tariff Revenue Since May
The economic damage from a chaotic tariff regime can outweigh the revenue itself, and unlike the tariffs, it cannot be refunded.
4 min read
Expert
Erica York
Senior Economist
Erica York is Senior Economist with Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy. Her analysis has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Politico, and other national and international media outlets.
She previously worked as an auditor at a large community bank in Kansas and interned at Tax Foundation’s Center for State Tax Policy. She holds a master’s degree in Economics from Wichita State University and an undergraduate degree in Business Administration and Economics from Sterling (KS) College, where she is currently an adjunct professor. Erica lives in Kansas with her husband and their two children.
Latest Work
Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $900 in 2026.
57 min read
Overview of the Tax Foundation’s General Equilibrium Model
The Tax Foundation uses and maintains a General Equilibrium Model, known as our Taxes and Growth (TAG) Model to simulate the effects of government tax and spending policies on the economy and on government revenues and budgets.
9 min read
Tracking Three IRS Datapoints to Watch During the 2026 Tax Filing Season
The total amount refunded as of the sixth week of reporting is running ahead of the past filing season by nearly $23 billion at $202.6 billion compared to $179.5 billion, while the average refund is up 10.9 percent at $3,571.
3 min read
Summary of the Latest Federal Income Tax Data, Tax Year 2023
New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
6 min read
American Compass’s “Tariff Tally” Doesn’t Add Up
The evidence overall paints a far different picture than American Compass presents, and a consistent theoretical framework undercuts its assertions of how tariffs should be expected to impact the economy moving forward.
25 min read
Remote Work and State Taxes: What You Need to Know
Should you have to file a tax return in a state where you babysat for one hour? In 22 states, the answer is technically yes.
Corporate Tax Payments Will Fall This Year. Here’s Why That’s Good News.
Smaller corporate tax bills after the OBBBA are not evidence of new giveaways or loopholes. They are evidence the tax code is finally treating investment the way it should.
We Tracked Every Trump Tariff Change for a Year. Here’s What We Found.
One year later, the evidence shows the tariffs were not reciprocal, did not generate the promised investment boom, raised less revenue than projected, and contributed to higher prices.
Liberation Day Was One Year Ago: Did the President’s Tariff Promises Happen?
One year after “Liberation Day,” evidence shows President Trump’s tariffs were not reciprocal, did not generate the promised investment boom, raised less revenue than projected, and contributed to higher prices.
7 min read
Details and Analysis of the Van Hollen and Booker Tax Cut Plans
Senators Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) and Cory Booker (D-NJ) have each introduced proposals aimed at cutting taxes for lower- and middle-income taxpayers and raising them on high-income taxpayers.
9 min read
Should We Tax Artificial Intelligence?
AI is everywhere, and now it’s in the tax policy debate.
Blog
Short FormWhy Is My Tax Refund Larger This Year?
If you’ve filed your taxes already, you may have noticed a larger refund this year. That’s due to changes Congress made with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) last year that retroactively cut taxes for 2025.
3 min read
Pharmaceutical Tariffs Would Add Costs and Reduce Innovation
Thought the Trump administration has not yet imposed new, industry-specific tariffs on drugs or active pharmaceutical ingredients, such tariffs would be a hidden cost on Americans: they would shrink incomes, reduce investment, and lead to less innovation.
7 min read
Trump Tariffs Threaten to Offset Much of the “Big Beautiful Bill” Tax Cuts
The tariffs now in effect threaten to offset much of the GDP growth from the tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them.
3 min read
Trump Tariffs Blocked by the Supreme Court (What’s Next?)
Last Friday, the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs in a landmark 6-3 decision.
Supreme Court Strikes Down President Trump’s Tariffs
The Supreme Court ruling against the IEEPA tariffs provides immediate relief to US businesses and workers and is a welcome rebuke of President Trump’s overreach of executive authority to unilaterally impose significant tax hikes on the US economy.
6 min read
Here’s Why Corporate Taxes May Appear Lower After the OBBBA
Near-term corporate tax payments may fall, and financial statement data may appear unusual, but over time, revenues will stabilize, book-tax gaps will fade, and the US tax code will incentivize domestic investment.
8 min read
One Big Beautiful Bill Act Tax Policies: Details and Analysis
Our analysis of the major tax provisions included in the OBBBA finds it will increase long-run GDP by 0.7 percent. The major tax provisions will reduce federal tax revenue by nearly $5.2 trillion between 2025 and 2034, on a conventional basis.
12 min read
Tax Refunds and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
When taxpayers file their 2025 tax returns in 2026, many will see larger refunds than in recent years. That’s due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which reduced individual income taxes for 2025 by an estimated $129 billion.
4 min read