Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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The highest excise duties are applied in Finland, Sweden, and Ireland, where the rates for a standard-size bottle of liquor are €14.10 ($16.08), €13.80 ($15.73), and €11.92 ($13.59), respectively.
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It is important to understand how the SALT deduction’s benefits have changed since the SALT cap was put into place in 2018 before repealing the cap or making the deduction more generous. Doing so would disproportionately benefit higher earners, making the tax code more regressive.
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Reviewing the sources of personal income shows that the personal income tax is largely a tax on labor, primarily because our personal income is mostly derived from labor. However, varied sources of capital income also play a role in American incomes. While capital income sources are small compared to labor income, they are still significant and need to be accounted for, both by policymakers trying to collect revenue efficiently and by those attempting to understand the distribution of personal income.
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As one might expect, southern European countries that are well-known for their wines—such as France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain—either don’t tax it or do so at a very low rate. But travel north and you’ll see countries that tend to levy taxes on wine—and often hefty taxes.
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The original goal of AMTs—to prevent deductions from eliminating income tax liability altogether—can be accomplished best by simplifying the existing tax structure, not by creating an alternative tax which adds complexity and lacks transparency and neutrality.
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Neither Anchorage, Alaska, nor Portland, Oregon, impose any state or local sales taxes. Honolulu, Hawaii, has a low rate of 4.5 percent and several other major cities, including Milwaukee and Madison, Wisconsin, keep overall rates modest.
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The Biden administration’s international tax proposals would impose a 7.7 percent surtax on the foreign profits of U.S. multinationals, resulting in a net increase in profit shifting out of the U.S.
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CBO data shows that the TCJA reduced federal tax rates for households across every income level while increasing the share of tax paid by the top 1 percent.
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Fifteen states have a marriage penalty built into their bracket structure. Does your state have one?
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Finland has the highest excise tax on beer in Europe, followed by Ireland and the United Kingdom. Compare beer taxes in Europe this International Beer Day
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California pumps out the highest state gas tax rate of 66.98 cents per gallon, followed by Illinois (59.56 cpg), Pennsylvania (58.7 cpg), and New Jersey (50.7 cpg).
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Reducing the tax gap is, on the margin, a good way to raise revenue, but is not without costs. Policymakers should consider compliance costs for law-abiding taxpayers as well as administrative costs for the IRS when evaluating measures to reduce the tax gap.
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As economies are starting to recover and growth is expected to rebound in the region during 2021, Asian and Pacific countries should start exploring changes to their fiscal tax policies while carefully evaluating the optimal time for eliminating fiscal stimulus and temporary tax relief.
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19 European OECD countries employ a fully territorial tax system, exempting all foreign-sourced dividend and capital gains income from domestic taxation. No European OECD country operates a worldwide tax system.
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Although state budgets may be in unusual places this year, sales tax holidays remain the same as they always have been—ineffective and inefficient.
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As states close their books for fiscal year 2021, many have much more revenue on hand than they anticipated last year. Eleven states have responded by reducing income tax rates and making related structural reforms as they strive to solidify a competitive advantage in an increasingly competitive national landscape.
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To discourage this form of international debt shifting, many countries have implemented so-called thin-capitalization rules (thin-cap rules), which limit the amount of interest a multinational business can deduct for tax purposes.
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In 2020 and 2021, Congress enacted three rounds of economic impact payments (EIPs) for direct relief to households amidst the pandemic-induced downturn. Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau indicates that households increasingly saved their EIPs or used them to pay down debt rather than spend them.
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