Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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The highest average combined state and local sales tax rates are in Louisiana (9.55 percent), Tennessee (9.547 percent), Arkansas (9.48 percent), Washington (9.29 percent), and Alabama (9.22 percent).
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To prevent businesses from minimizing their tax liability by taking advantage of cross-country differences, countries have implemented various anti-tax avoidance measures, such as the so-called Controlled Foreign Corporation (CFC) rules.
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Because property taxes are tied to housing values, it makes sense that the actual dollar amounts of property taxes tend to be higher in places with higher housing prices. This map takes housing value into account to give a broader perspective for property tax comparison.
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From a policy perspective it is appropriate to combat base erosion and profit shifting, but policymakers need to keep in mind the need for simplicity to avoid increasing the compliance burden on taxpayers and administrative burdens on tax authorities.
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To reduce tax compliance and administrative costs, most countries have VAT exemption thresholds: If a business is below a certain annual revenue threshold, it is not required to participate in the VAT system.
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2021 state beer excise tax rates vary widely: as low as $0.02 per gallon in Wyoming and as high as $1.29 per gallon in Tennessee. Missouri and Wisconsin tie for second lowest at $0.06 per gallon, and Alaska is second highest with its $1.07 per gallon tax.
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The redistribution of income from the Biden administration’s tax proposals would involve many winners and losers, not only across different types of taxpayers but also geographically across the country. Launch our new interactive map to see average tax changes by state and congressional district over the budget window from 2022 to 2031.
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Last week, an analysis by Reuters suggested that U.S. firms pay less income tax than foreign competitors, in part because “the U.S. tax code is unusually generous with tax breaks and deductions,” also known as corporate tax expenditures. However, the Reuters analysis is at odds with other data and studies indicating that U.S. corporate tax expenditures and effective tax rates are about on par with those in peer countries in the OECD.
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Thirteen states have notable tax changes taking effect on July 1, 2021, which is the first day of fiscal year (FY) 2022 for every state except Alabama, Michigan, New York, and Texas. Individual and corporate income tax changes usually take effect at the beginning of the calendar year for the sake of maintaining policy consistency throughout the tax year, but sales and excise tax changes often correspond with the beginning of a fiscal year.
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Many companies have investment projects with different risk profiles and operate in industries that fluctuate greatly with the business cycle. Carryover provisions help businesses “smooth” their risk and income, making the tax code more neutral across investments and over time.
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States tend to tax wine at a higher rate than beer but at a lower rate than distilled spirits due to wine’s mid-range alcohol content. You’ll find the highest wine excise taxes in Kentucky at $3.23 per gallon, far above Alaska’s second-place $2.50 per gallon. Those states are followed by Florida ($2.25), Iowa ($1.75), and Alabama and New Mexico (tied at $1.70).
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During the COVID-19 pandemic, several OECD countries temporarily expanded their NOL carrybacks and carryforwards to provide relief to illiquid but otherwise solvent businesses. These policies should be made permanent and, where necessary, expanded.
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As economic activity resumes and the task of accounting for the deficits incurred in navigating the crisis of the past year becomes the focus of fiscal policy deliberations, a greater reliance on VAT could be an important tool in ensuring fiscal stability going forward. Countries should use this as an opportunity to improve VAT systems by re-examining carveouts in the form of exemptions and reduced rates.
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Leaders around the world are quickly moving to finalize an agreement on a global minimum tax in 2021, based on the so-called “Pillar Two” proposal from the OECD.
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Of all alcoholic beverages subject to taxation, stiff drinks—and all distilled spirits—face the stiffest tax rates. Like many excise taxes, the treatment of distilled spirits varies widely across the states.
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Explore President Biden budget proposals, including tax and spending in American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan. See Biden tax and spending proposals.
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Corporate income taxes are commonly levied as a flat rate on business profits. However, some countries provide reduced corporate income tax rates for small businesses. Out of 27 European OECD countries covered in today’s map, eight levy a reduced corporate tax rate on businesses that have revenues or profits below a certain threshold.
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Krispy Kreme may have started the vaccine incentive ball rolling, but many states are putting big money into the effort with vaccine lotteries. Unlike a normal lottery, no one is paying for tickets—but the tax collector still gets paid when someone wins.
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Details and analysis of the American Jobs Plan tax proposals. Learn more about the major tax changes in the proposed Biden infrastructure plan.
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In recent years, several countries have taken measures to reduce carbon emissions, including instituting environmental regulations, emissions trading systems (ETS), and carbon taxes.
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