Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min read
Featured Articles
Even After Exemptions, More than Half of Food Products Continue to Face Trump Tariffs
The Trump tariffs will likely raise the cost of food for Americans, particularly for liqueurs and spirits, baked goods, coffee, fish, and beer.
4 min read
The Best Way to Provide Relief Is to Repeal Tariffs, Not Offer Tariff Rebate Checks
As US businesses and consumers face higher costs of goods due to the Trump tariffs, Senator Hawley (R-MO) has introduced legislation to rebate tariff revenue to provide financial relief. The proposal takes a similar approach to the stimulus checks issued during the COVID-19 pandemic.
4 min read
The Truth About Tariffs—Fact-Checking Trump’s Trade Claims
Do tariffs really level the playing field, or are they just bad economics? In this emergency episode, we fact-check the Trump administration’s claims that retaliatory tariffs make trade fairer.
Who Pays Tariffs? Americans Will Bear the Costs of the Next Trade War
Rather than hurting foreign exporters, the economic evidence shows American firms and consumers were hardest hit by tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first-term.
5 min read
Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs
Contrary to the president’s promises, the tariffs will cause short-term pain and long-term pain, no matter the ways people and businesses change their behavior.
5 min read
Testimony: Alternatives to Tariffs to Boost US Competitiveness
While tariffs are often presented as tools to enhance US competitiveness, a long history of evidence and recent experience shows they lead to increased costs for consumers and unprotected producers and harmful retaliation, which outweighs the benefits afforded to protected industries.
Learning from the First Trade War: Retaliation Hurts US Exporters
As we learned in the first trade war, retaliation will exact harm on US exporters by lowering their export sales—and the US-imposed tariffs will directly harm exporters too. US-imposed tariffs can burden exporters by increasing input costs, which acts like a tax on exports.
4 min read
How Will Trump’s Universal and China Tariffs Impact the Economy?
President-elect Trump may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire. Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy.
5 min read
The European VAT is Not a Discriminatory Tax Against US Exports
The Trump administration appears to be moving in a “reciprocal” policy direction despite the significant negative economic consequences for American consumers of across-the-board tariffs on goods coming into the US. However, the EU’s VAT system should not be used as a justification for retaliatory tariffs.
6 min read
Donald Trump Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min read
Trump’s Tariff Proposals Would Raise Tariff Rates to Great Depression-Era Levels
Using tariff policy to reallocate investment and jobs is a costly mistake—that’s a history lesson we should not forget.
6 min read
Revenue Estimates of Trump’s Universal Baseline Tariffs
Lawmakers will need to pursue fiscal responsibility as they address the tax law expirations, but fiscal responsibility requires finding sound ways to pay for spending priorities. Tariffs don’t make the cut.
4 min read
Why the Economic Effects of Taxes (Including Tariffs) Matter
Estimating the economic effects of different types of taxes informs policymakers about the trade-offs of raising revenue in a given way.
5 min read
2024 Election Insights | Can Trump’s Tariff Plan Really Replace the Income Tax?
Can tariffs truly replace income taxes in today’s economy? In this episode, we examine the bold and controversial proposal from former President Trump to replace income taxes with tariffs. What would this dramatic shift mean for everyday Americans, particularly those with lower incomes? And would it actually work?
All Related Articles
There Is No Low-Tax Case for Tariffs
Full expensing under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act does not neutralize the tariff burden on imported goods, as former White House Council of Economic Advisers chair Stephen Miran asserts.
8 min read
USMCA Is Up For Review. The US Would Be Foolish Not to Extend It
President Donald Trump has decided against a clean extension of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), allowing the bloc of countries to enter a prolonged period of annual reviews, renegotiations, and, possibly, a shift to bilateral deals.
Blog
Short FormWhat 250 Years of Tax History Reveal About the US Tax Code
Just as many parts of American life have transformed over the past 250 years, so too has the federal tax system. While most taxes levied in the 18th century are still levied in some form today, the federal government’s reliance on them, the complexity of the tax code, and Americans’ overall tax burdens have shifted considerably.
5 min read
Failing to Renew the USMCA Would Increase Tariff Uncertainty and Harm Americans
With nearly 2 million US jobs tied to trade with Canada and Mexico, stalling renewal — or withdrawing outright — would compound tariff uncertainty at exactly the wrong time.
6 min read
Testimony: Are Digital Services Taxes a Viable Solution for the EU Budget?
Digital services taxes address a real concern—the need to adapt taxation to the digital economy—but they are not the right solution. They raise limited revenue, are often passed on to consumers rather than large digital firms, create economic distortions, increase complexity and compliance costs, negatively impact innovation and competitiveness, and risk international retaliation.
Are Digital Services Taxes a Viable Solution for the EU Budget?
Since digital services taxes generate little revenue, place the cost on European consumers and not on large digital companies as intended, and risk escalating trade disputes, policymakers should rethink their strategy.
14 min read
Don’t Blame the Messenger—the CBO—for Our Current Fiscal Problems
Publicly held debt is projected to rise to a new record high of 106 percent of GDP within the next four years and continue to rise to 120 percent by 2036 and 175 percent by 2056.
8 min read
Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min read
Digital Services Taxes in Europe, 2026
Currently, about half of all European OECD countries have either announced, proposed, or implemented a digital services tax. Because these taxes mainly impact US companies and are thus perceived as discriminatory, the US responded with retaliatory tariff threats.
5 min read
No, Tariffs Are Not Strengthening the Economy
Testifying to Congress, United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer argued that “President Trump’s trade policy is working.” The data present a different picture: President Trump’s trade agenda is actually holding back the economy.
Can Tax Reform Solve the Debt Problem—or Just Slow It?
This study simulates several large tax increases and consistently finds that even tax increases large enough to close the primary deficit in the near term will lose ground over time and fail to put the debt on a sustainable course.
41 min read
Tax Refunds Are Higher. That’s Only a Fraction of the Story.
For many, the OBBBA made tax filing easier and put more money back into their pockets. But it didn’t improve the grade for overall tax complexity for the US. It may actually make the situation worse.
Testimony: The Impact of the 2025 Reconciliation Law’s Tax Changes on Small Businesses and Lessons for Future Tax Reform
Policymakers should broaden and make permanent full expensing for additional asset classes and pursue structural reforms that reduce distortions in how businesses are taxed. A more consistent and predictable policy environment, paired with targeted improvements to loss treatment, R&D incentives, and compliance burdens, would give small business owners greater confidence to invest, hire, and grow.
Tariffs by Another Name: How Discriminatory Taxes on Cross-Border Services Threaten America’s Export Edge
The US, as the world’s largest services exporter, has a stronger interest in combating discriminatory services taxation than in pursuing tariffs.
44 min read
American Compass’s “Tariff Tally” Doesn’t Add Up
The evidence overall paints a far different picture than American Compass presents, and a consistent theoretical framework undercuts its assertions of how tariffs should be expected to impact the economy moving forward.
25 min read
We Tracked Every Trump Tariff Change for a Year. Here’s What We Found.
One year later, the evidence shows the tariffs were not reciprocal, did not generate the promised investment boom, raised less revenue than projected, and contributed to higher prices.
Liberation Day Was One Year Ago: Did the President’s Tariff Promises Happen?
One year after “Liberation Day,” evidence shows President Trump’s tariffs were not reciprocal, did not generate the promised investment boom, raised less revenue than projected, and contributed to higher prices.
7 min read
Congress Has 150 Days To Prove It Still Holds the Power of the Purse. Will It?
Unlike the IEEPA tariffs, which were stopped by the Supreme Court, the new Sec. 122 tariffs require congressional authorization after 150 days.
Pharmaceutical Tariffs Would Add Costs and Reduce Innovation
Thought the Trump administration has not yet imposed new, industry-specific tariffs on drugs or active pharmaceutical ingredients, such tariffs would be a hidden cost on Americans: they would shrink incomes, reduce investment, and lead to less innovation.
7 min read
FAQs About Border Adjustment
What is a border adjustment? Is it a new idea? How would it work in practice?
11 min read