Trump Tariffs: The Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,300 per US household in 2025.
32 min read
Featured Articles
The Truth About Tariffs—Fact-Checking Trump’s Trade Claims
Do tariffs really level the playing field, or are they just bad economics? In this emergency episode, we fact-check the Trump administration’s claims that retaliatory tariffs make trade fairer.
Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Calculations Are Nonsense, Will Punish Mutually Beneficial Trade
Despite characterizing the tariffs as “reciprocal,” the White House didn’t actually measure tariffs, currency manipulation, or trade barrier policies employed by other countries. Instead, it drew its estimates from something else entirely: bilateral trade deficits in goods.
7 min read
Who Pays Tariffs? Americans Will Bear the Costs of the Next Trade War
Rather than hurting foreign exporters, the economic evidence shows American firms and consumers were hardest hit by tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first-term.
5 min read
Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs
Contrary to the president’s promises, the tariffs will cause short-term pain and long-term pain, no matter the ways people and businesses change their behavior.
5 min read
How Will President Trump’s Tariffs Affect the Value of the Dollar?
President Trump has announced that new tariffs will go into effect on April 2, following several weeks of threats. These new tariffs are likely to be broader in scope than the limited ones implemented thus far. So who is likely to pay for them?
7 min read
Testimony: Alternatives to Tariffs to Boost US Competitiveness
While tariffs are often presented as tools to enhance US competitiveness, a long history of evidence and recent experience shows they lead to increased costs for consumers and unprotected producers and harmful retaliation, which outweighs the benefits afforded to protected industries.
Learning from the First Trade War: Retaliation Hurts US Exporters
As we learned in the first trade war, retaliation will exact harm on US exporters by lowering their export sales—and the US-imposed tariffs will directly harm exporters too. US-imposed tariffs can burden exporters by increasing input costs, which acts like a tax on exports.
4 min read
How Will Trump’s Universal and China Tariffs Impact the Economy?
President-elect Trump may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire. Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy.
5 min read
The European VAT is Not a Discriminatory Tax Against US Exports
The Trump administration appears to be moving in a “reciprocal” policy direction despite the significant negative economic consequences for American consumers of across-the-board tariffs on goods coming into the US. However, the EU’s VAT system should not be used as a justification for retaliatory tariffs.
6 min read
Donald Trump Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min read
Trump’s Tariff Proposals Would Raise Tariff Rates to Great Depression-Era Levels
Using tariff policy to reallocate investment and jobs is a costly mistake—that’s a history lesson we should not forget.
6 min read
Revenue Estimates of Trump’s Universal Baseline Tariffs
Lawmakers will need to pursue fiscal responsibility as they address the tax law expirations, but fiscal responsibility requires finding sound ways to pay for spending priorities. Tariffs don’t make the cut.
4 min read
Why the Economic Effects of Taxes (Including Tariffs) Matter
Estimating the economic effects of different types of taxes informs policymakers about the trade-offs of raising revenue in a given way.
5 min read
2024 Election Insights | Can Trump’s Tariff Plan Really Replace the Income Tax?
Can tariffs truly replace income taxes in today’s economy? In this episode, we examine the bold and controversial proposal from former President Trump to replace income taxes with tariffs. What would this dramatic shift mean for everyday Americans, particularly those with lower incomes? And would it actually work?
All Related Articles
Trump’s Previous Tariffs Foreshadow the Economic Harm of Latest 10% Tariff Proposal
What can Former President Trump’s previous tariff efforts—specifically the safeguards he authorized on imported washing machines in 2018—tell us about his most recent proposal for a 10 percent tariff on all imports?
6 min read
Trump’s $300 Billion Tax Hike Would Threaten U.S. Businesses and Consumers
Former President Donald Trump’s proposed 10 percent tariff would raise taxes on American consumers by more than $300 billion a year—a tax increase rivaling the ones proposed by President Biden.
4 min read
Global Tax Tug of War: Comparing the UN and OECD Approaches
The United Nations (UN) is preparing to flex its muscles on international tax policy. Several developing countries say the OECD’s approach favors richer countries at their expense, and the UN hopes to fix this.
5 min read
Another Digital Services Tax in Sight
Canada is planning to join the club of countries that, in the past 3 years, introduced a digital services tax (DST) despite U.S. opposition and concerns expressed by Canadian businesses.
4 min read
What Would a Carbon Tariff Achieve?
Sens. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) and Christopher Coons (D-DE) have recently introduced a bill laying the groundwork for a possible solution to the problem: a tax on the carbon content of imports. But it falls short of the optimal approach in several ways.
4 min read
New Ways & Means Proposal Shows Continued Commitment to Combat Extraterritorial Taxes
The legislation follows from the bipartisan concern regarding tax policies adopted by other countries specifically targeting U.S. businesses or the U.S. tax base.
6 min read
What the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Means for Europe and the United States
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a key aspect of the EU’s broader Fit for 55 package which aims to cut 55 percent of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU by 2030. The growing number of competing climate policies between the EU and U.S., such as tax provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act, could present policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic an opportunity to work together.
5 min read
Global Excise Tax Application and Trends
When designed well, excise taxes discourage the consumption of products that create external harm and generate revenue for funding services that ameliorate social costs. The effectiveness of excise tax policy depends on the appropriate selection of the tax base and tax rate, as well as the efficient use of revenues.
83 min read
America’s Progressive Tax and Transfer System: Federal, State, and Local Tax and Transfer Distributions
The overall U.S. tax and transfer system is overwhelmingly progressive, and understanding the extent—and source—of that progressivity is essential for lawmakers considering the trade-offs associated with each tax policy decision.
23 min read
Dear President von der Leyen: President Biden Can’t Fix European Competitiveness
Focusing on the “threat” to European industry caused by the Inflation Reduction Act rather than internal tax system flaws puts the EU at risk of slower economic growth and possibly losing some of its important industrial base. It is also contrary to the EU’s geopolitical goals.
4 min read
EU Taxation: Prioritizing Geopolitics over Revenue
If the EU wants to strategically compete with economic powers like the United States or China, it needs principled, pro-growth tax policy that prioritizes efficient ways to raise revenue over geopolitical ambitions.
6 min read
Pursuing Delors’ Single Market: What the EU Gets Wrong About Its Economic Power and What It Means for the U.S.
Before EU policymakers rush to implement massive reforms, they should remember the goals of the Single Market, its international limitations, and the role of tax policy.
4 min read
In the Shadow of T-TIP: Why Congress Should Care About EU Tax and Trade Issues in 2023
The EU’s unilateral approach with carbon taxes, faster track on the global minimum tax, and threat of renewed efforts on DSTs means that U.S. policymakers face some hard choices. Policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic should keep in mind pro-growth tax and trade principles that promote a rules-based international order and increase opportunity.
7 min read
Digital Services Taxes: Is There an End in Sight?
As it stands, Pillar One would usher in the end of many digital services taxes (though perhaps not all) at the cost of increased complexity (in an already complex and uncertain system).
4 min read
Tariffs Are Taxes Too
Even though tariffs are invisible, their effects clearly are not. They might be sold as a tool to strengthen the economy, but tariffs are just taxes that make everyone worse off.
Carbon Taxes, Trade, and American Competitiveness
A border-adjusted carbon tax that uses some of the revenue for pro-investment tax reform could improve U.S. more competitiveness while also addressing concerns with a carbon tax.
29 min read
How the Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum Harmed the Economy
The Section 232 tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum raised the cost of production for manufacturers, reducing employment in those industries, raising prices for consumers, and hurting exports.
14 min read
Digital Services Taxes in Europe, 2022
About half of all European OECD countries have either announced, proposed, or implemented a digital services tax.
7 min read
Push for Higher Taxes Is Misguided During a Time of Inflation and Looming Recession
Some 40 years ago, the U.S. dealt with high inflation and slow economic growth. Then as now, the solution is a long-term focus on stronger economic growth and sustainable federal budgets.
5 min read
How Tariffs and the Trade War Hurt U.S. Agriculture
With inflation continuing to skyrocket, especially for food, which reached 10.4 percent in June, it is worth examining how the ongoing U.S. trade war with China and U.S. tariff policy overall has impacted U.S. agriculture and food prices.
3 min read