Trump Tariffs: The Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,300 per US household in 2025.
32 min read
Featured Articles
The Truth About Tariffs—Fact-Checking Trump’s Trade Claims
Do tariffs really level the playing field, or are they just bad economics? In this emergency episode, we fact-check the Trump administration’s claims that retaliatory tariffs make trade fairer.
Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Calculations Are Nonsense, Will Punish Mutually Beneficial Trade
Despite characterizing the tariffs as “reciprocal,” the White House didn’t actually measure tariffs, currency manipulation, or trade barrier policies employed by other countries. Instead, it drew its estimates from something else entirely: bilateral trade deficits in goods.
7 min read
Who Pays Tariffs? Americans Will Bear the Costs of the Next Trade War
Rather than hurting foreign exporters, the economic evidence shows American firms and consumers were hardest hit by tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first-term.
5 min read
Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs
Contrary to the president’s promises, the tariffs will cause short-term pain and long-term pain, no matter the ways people and businesses change their behavior.
5 min read
How Will President Trump’s Tariffs Affect the Value of the Dollar?
President Trump has announced that new tariffs will go into effect on April 2, following several weeks of threats. These new tariffs are likely to be broader in scope than the limited ones implemented thus far. So who is likely to pay for them?
7 min read
Testimony: Alternatives to Tariffs to Boost US Competitiveness
While tariffs are often presented as tools to enhance US competitiveness, a long history of evidence and recent experience shows they lead to increased costs for consumers and unprotected producers and harmful retaliation, which outweighs the benefits afforded to protected industries.
Learning from the First Trade War: Retaliation Hurts US Exporters
As we learned in the first trade war, retaliation will exact harm on US exporters by lowering their export sales—and the US-imposed tariffs will directly harm exporters too. US-imposed tariffs can burden exporters by increasing input costs, which acts like a tax on exports.
4 min read
How Will Trump’s Universal and China Tariffs Impact the Economy?
President-elect Trump may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire. Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy.
5 min read
The European VAT is Not a Discriminatory Tax Against US Exports
The Trump administration appears to be moving in a “reciprocal” policy direction despite the significant negative economic consequences for American consumers of across-the-board tariffs on goods coming into the US. However, the EU’s VAT system should not be used as a justification for retaliatory tariffs.
6 min read
Donald Trump Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min read
Trump’s Tariff Proposals Would Raise Tariff Rates to Great Depression-Era Levels
Using tariff policy to reallocate investment and jobs is a costly mistake—that’s a history lesson we should not forget.
6 min read
Revenue Estimates of Trump’s Universal Baseline Tariffs
Lawmakers will need to pursue fiscal responsibility as they address the tax law expirations, but fiscal responsibility requires finding sound ways to pay for spending priorities. Tariffs don’t make the cut.
4 min read
Why the Economic Effects of Taxes (Including Tariffs) Matter
Estimating the economic effects of different types of taxes informs policymakers about the trade-offs of raising revenue in a given way.
5 min read
2024 Election Insights | Can Trump’s Tariff Plan Really Replace the Income Tax?
Can tariffs truly replace income taxes in today’s economy? In this episode, we examine the bold and controversial proposal from former President Trump to replace income taxes with tariffs. What would this dramatic shift mean for everyday Americans, particularly those with lower incomes? And would it actually work?
All Related Articles
Three Questions on Pillar One
While the global minimum tax gets much attention in the media, there is another significant piece to the deal.
6 min read
Carbon Taxes in the Global Market: Changes on the Way?
As policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic debate the way forward on carbon border adjustment mechanisms, it is important to keep principles of good tax policy in mind.
7 min read
U.S.-China Trade War Hurt American Industries and Workers
While the U.S. tariffs were intended to protect American industries, they have largely hurt the U.S. economy. Rather than pass on the tariffs to Chinese consumers, analysis shows that most U.S. firms simply bore the costs.
5 min read
Remembering Senator Orrin Hatch’s Historic Tax Legacy
Among the many achievements in the illustrious career of former Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) was his commitment to bipartisan tax reform.
3 min read
History of Taxes
Learn where and when taxes originated and how they resemble taxes we have today. Understand how the American tax code developed from the beginning of the colonies. Learn about some of the weirder taxes throughout history, designed not just to raise revenue, but influence behavior too.
Biden’s Trade Agenda Should End the Trade War and Promote Free Trade
The Biden administration should lift the Trump administration’s tariffs, as they have failed in their objective to bring better trading practices and instead brought about significant damage to U.S. businesses and workers.
6 min read
Taxes, Tariffs, and Industrial Policy: How the US Tax Code Fails Manufacturing
Policymakers actively marginalized the manufacturing sector by saddling them with cost recovery rules that prevent them from deducting the full cost of investment in physical plant and equipment. Going forward, policymakers should avoid haphazard fixes, targeted measures, and protectionism.
50 min read
10 Tax Reforms for Growth and Opportunity
By reducing the tax code’s current barriers to investment and saving and simplifying its complex rules, lawmakers would greatly enhance the ability of Americans to pursue new ideas, create more opportunities, and build financial security for themselves and their families.
40 min read
Trump-Biden Tariffs Hurt Domestic Manufacturing
As lawmakers today look for ways to boost American industry and reduce costs for consumers, they should pay attention to the mountains of evidence that the Trump-Biden tariffs have harmed American consumers and businesses.
6 min read
Repealing Tariffs Would Be a Simple Option to Boost U.S. Economic Growth
Of the many tax policies modeled in our new Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, repealing the tariffs imposed under President Trump’s administration would be one of the simplest ways policymakers could boost economic growth.
2 min read
Recent Analysis Explores Pillar 1 Risks and the Potential for Disputes
As countries move closer to agreement on how the OECD Pillar 1 Amount A will work and which companies will be impacted by it, it is incredibly important for policymakers to continue to evaluate not just the intended effects but also the potential unintended consequences.
6 min read
Common Tax Questions, Answered
Get answers to some of the tax policy questions we hear most often from taxpayers, businesses, and journalists. Learn everything from the basics of who pays taxes and the difference between credits and deductions, to how taxes impact the economy and what constitutes sound tax policy. Discover additional resources to explore each question and topic in more depth.
Understanding Tariffs
Depending on your perspective, tariffs are either a great way to tax countries like China for their protectionist trade policies or they are a big reason why all those imported toys, clothing and holiday gifts cost more than you expected. You’ll learn what tariffs are, how they function, and how they can impact the domestic U.S. economy.
Digital Tax Collection Triggers New U.S. Tariffs on France
A multilateral solution to digital taxation would be preferable over DSTs and retaliatory measures, especially during these challenging economic times. DSTs are indeed distortionary taxes that can act as trade barriers. Retaliatory tariffs, however, only further weaken the U.S.-French trade relationship and will negatively impact both economies.
2 min read
Biden Could Provide Business and Household Relief by Eliminating Trump Tariffs
Biden has not specified how he would approach the Trump tariffs, though his advisers have said he will at least review them.
5 min read
Placing Joe Biden’s Tax Increases in Historical Context
If we consider Biden’s tax plan over the entire budget window (2021 to 2030) as a percentage of GDP—1.30 percent—it would rank as the 6th largest tax increase since the 1940s and and one of the largest tax increases not associated with wartime funding.
6 min read
Two Roads Diverge in the OECD’s Impact Assessment
The difference that the OECD presents between the potential impact in the context of agreement compared to a harmful tax and trade war should show policymakers the value of continuing multilateral discussions.
6 min read
Pillars, Blueprints, an Impact Assessment, and Construction Delays
The OECD released blueprints for proposals on changing international tax rules alongside an impact assessment based on the overall design of the proposals. While the blueprints cover proposals both for changing where large multinationals owe corporate tax and designing a global minimum tax, there are still many unanswered questions. In the meantime, other digital tax proposals are moving forward and have the potential to result in a harmful tax and trade war.
4 min read
President Trump Outlines Second Term Tax Ideas
Broad themes of the president’s agenda include providing tax relief to individuals and tax credits to businesses that engage in desired activities, while the status of expiring TCJA provisions and tariffs seems uncertain.
4 min read