Trump Tariffs: The Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,300 per US household in 2025.
32 min read
Featured Articles
The Truth About Tariffs—Fact-Checking Trump’s Trade Claims
Do tariffs really level the playing field, or are they just bad economics? In this emergency episode, we fact-check the Trump administration’s claims that retaliatory tariffs make trade fairer.
Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Calculations Are Nonsense, Will Punish Mutually Beneficial Trade
Despite characterizing the tariffs as “reciprocal,” the White House didn’t actually measure tariffs, currency manipulation, or trade barrier policies employed by other countries. Instead, it drew its estimates from something else entirely: bilateral trade deficits in goods.
7 min read
Who Pays Tariffs? Americans Will Bear the Costs of the Next Trade War
Rather than hurting foreign exporters, the economic evidence shows American firms and consumers were hardest hit by tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first-term.
5 min read
Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs
Contrary to the president’s promises, the tariffs will cause short-term pain and long-term pain, no matter the ways people and businesses change their behavior.
5 min read
How Will President Trump’s Tariffs Affect the Value of the Dollar?
President Trump has announced that new tariffs will go into effect on April 2, following several weeks of threats. These new tariffs are likely to be broader in scope than the limited ones implemented thus far. So who is likely to pay for them?
7 min read
Testimony: Alternatives to Tariffs to Boost US Competitiveness
While tariffs are often presented as tools to enhance US competitiveness, a long history of evidence and recent experience shows they lead to increased costs for consumers and unprotected producers and harmful retaliation, which outweighs the benefits afforded to protected industries.
Learning from the First Trade War: Retaliation Hurts US Exporters
As we learned in the first trade war, retaliation will exact harm on US exporters by lowering their export sales—and the US-imposed tariffs will directly harm exporters too. US-imposed tariffs can burden exporters by increasing input costs, which acts like a tax on exports.
4 min read
How Will Trump’s Universal and China Tariffs Impact the Economy?
President-elect Trump may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire. Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy.
5 min read
The European VAT is Not a Discriminatory Tax Against US Exports
The Trump administration appears to be moving in a “reciprocal” policy direction despite the significant negative economic consequences for American consumers of across-the-board tariffs on goods coming into the US. However, the EU’s VAT system should not be used as a justification for retaliatory tariffs.
6 min read
Donald Trump Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min read
Trump’s Tariff Proposals Would Raise Tariff Rates to Great Depression-Era Levels
Using tariff policy to reallocate investment and jobs is a costly mistake—that’s a history lesson we should not forget.
6 min read
Revenue Estimates of Trump’s Universal Baseline Tariffs
Lawmakers will need to pursue fiscal responsibility as they address the tax law expirations, but fiscal responsibility requires finding sound ways to pay for spending priorities. Tariffs don’t make the cut.
4 min read
Why the Economic Effects of Taxes (Including Tariffs) Matter
Estimating the economic effects of different types of taxes informs policymakers about the trade-offs of raising revenue in a given way.
5 min read
2024 Election Insights | Can Trump’s Tariff Plan Really Replace the Income Tax?
Can tariffs truly replace income taxes in today’s economy? In this episode, we examine the bold and controversial proposal from former President Trump to replace income taxes with tariffs. What would this dramatic shift mean for everyday Americans, particularly those with lower incomes? And would it actually work?
All Related Articles
Proposed Chinese Tariffs Will Raise Taxes Following a Large Tax Cut
The Trump administration’s plan to levy $60 billion in tariffs on Chinese products could negate 20 percent of the benefits of the recently adopted tax cuts.
3 min read
Lessons from the 2002 Bush Steel Tariffs
3 min read
Correct Decision to Exempt Canada and Mexico Assures that New Tariffs Won’t Work as Planned
President Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports–except those from Mexico and Canada–will not work as the administration hopes. It will increase costs for businesses and raise prices for consumers.
3 min read
New Tariff Plan Could Cost States $9 Billion
While the burden of Trump’s tariffs will ultimately be felt by most U.S. consumers, two-thirds of the new taxes will be initially borne by 10 states.
6 min read
President Trump Announces Two Steep Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
President Trump’s new tariffs on steel and aluminum will have negative consequences for downstream manufacturing companies, consumers, and other sectors in the economy.
4 min read
President Trump Approves Tariffs on Washing Machines and Solar Cells
Tariffs on washing machines and solar cells, though designed to help U.S. manufacturing and protect consumers, will likely raise prices and distort markets.
3 min read
Trade and Capital Flow Consequences of Tax Reform: A Means to a Faster Expansion of U.S. Capital Formation and Employment
The tax bill will boost investment and incomes in the United States, and make the country a better place to locate production and hiring. There will be a transitory rise in the trade deficit, but in the context of a stronger, faster-growing economy.
5 min read
Taxes and the Star Wars Universe
Taxes are everywhere, and that includes the Star Wars universe.
1 min read
