Historical evidence and recent studies show that tariffs are taxes that raise prices and reduce available quantities of goods and services for US businesses and consumers, which results in lower income, reduced employment, and lower economic output. For example, the effects of higher steel prices, largely a result of the Bush administration’s 2002 US steel tariffs, led to a loss of nearly 200,000 jobs in the steel-consuming sector, a loss larger than the total employment in the steel-producing sector at the time. It’s also worth noting that measures of trade flows, such as the trade balance, are accounting identities and should not be misunderstood to be indicators of economic health.
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts. Explore our analysis of Trump trade war policies below.
The Trump administration imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans by levying tariffs on thousands of products valued at approximately $380 billion in 2018 and 2019, amounting to one of the largest tax increases in decades.
19 min read
President-elect Trump may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire. Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy.
5 min read
Lawmakers will need to pursue fiscal responsibility as they address the tax law expirations, but fiscal responsibility requires finding sound ways to pay for spending priorities. Tariffs don’t make the cut.
4 min read
If reelected, President Trump would drastically escalate the trade war he started during his first term. But what often goes unnoticed is President Biden’s role in continuing Trump’s first trade war. In fact, more tax revenue from the trade war tariffs has been collected under Biden than under Trump.
5 min read
The bulk of economic evidence shows for most of the new tariffs imposed under the Trump administration, US firms or consumers bore 100 percent, or even more, of the burden through lower profits or higher retail prices.
5 min read
While the U.S. tariffs were intended to protect American industries, they have largely hurt the U.S. economy. Rather than pass on the tariffs to Chinese consumers, analysis shows that most U.S. firms simply bore the costs.
5 min read
Policymakers actively marginalized the manufacturing sector by saddling them with cost recovery rules that prevent them from deducting the full cost of investment in physical plant and equipment. Going forward, policymakers should avoid haphazard fixes, targeted measures, and protectionism.
50 min read
As lawmakers today look for ways to boost American industry and reduce costs for consumers, they should pay attention to the mountains of evidence that the Trump-Biden tariffs have harmed American consumers and businesses.
6 min read
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min read
Short FormThe holiday season is marked by time with friends and family, joy, and gift-giving. But could tax policy make the sticker shock from your shopping list next year tariff-ying?
4 min read
What happens to your taxes when the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expires on January 1, 2026? In this episode, we explore the potential tax hikes facing millions of Americans and the debate over measuring the budgetary impacts of extending tax cuts.
Fiscal pressures are likely to weigh heavily on lawmakers as they craft a tax reform package. That increased pressure could result in well-designed tax reform that prioritizes economic growth, simplicity, and stability, or it could encourage budget gimmicks and economically harmful offsets. Lawmakers should avoid the latter.
8 min read
President-elect Trump may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire. Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy.
5 min read
Join hosts Kyle Hulehan and Erica York in this episode of The Deduction as they break down the US tax policy implications of Donald Trump’s next presidential term.
Lawmakers will need to pursue fiscal responsibility as they address the tax law expirations, but fiscal responsibility requires finding sound ways to pay for spending priorities. Tariffs don’t make the cut.
4 min read
Can tariffs truly replace income taxes in today’s economy? In this episode, we examine the bold and controversial proposal from former President Trump to replace income taxes with tariffs. What would this dramatic shift mean for everyday Americans, particularly those with lower incomes? And would it actually work?
Broad, pro-investment tax policy matters for growth, and the US has plenty of opportunities to make improvements, particularly given the advantages our cross-Pacific rival confers on its firms.
5 min read
Trump’s tariff hikes would rank as the the largest tax increase outside of wartime since 1940. Meanwhile, Harris’s tax plan would rank as the 6th largest tax increase outside of wartime since 1940.
5 min read
Are tax increases on the horizon in 2025, no matter who takes office? In this episode, we explore why changes to the tax code could hit your wallet, regardless of which party comes out on top.
How does tax policy shape a nation’s competitiveness? Today, we’re diving into the showdown between the US and China, exploring how China’s enticing tax incentives pose a formidable challenge to America’s economic supremacy.
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min read
While federal tax collections—especially corporate taxes—have reached historically high levels, these gains have not kept pace with escalating spending, particularly on debt interest, leading to a substantial and concerning budget deficit in FY24.
6 min read
Neither presidential candidate has a perfect tax plan. But what changes could Trump and Harris make to their respective tax plans to better serve American workers and the economy? In this episode, we dissect their plans and provide practical solutions for improvement.
Restoring expensing for R&D, machinery, and equipment; extending better cost recovery to structures investment; and avoiding raising the corporate tax rate would create a stronger, pro-investment policy environment for the US economy.
44 min read
Using tariff policy to reallocate investment and jobs is a costly mistake—that’s a history lesson we should not forget.
6 min read
Estimating the economic effects of different types of taxes informs policymakers about the trade-offs of raising revenue in a given way.
5 min read
What do the contrasting tax proposals of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump mean for Americans as the 2024 election approaches?
While tax policy was almost nonexistent in the first debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, this episode will explore each candidate’s latest proposals in greater depth.
Short FormWorld War II shaped many aspects of the modern world, including the US tax code. But the dramatic changes to our system that military mobilization required didn’t subside when the fighting finished; they’ve persisted to today.
4 min read