The tax burden for most Americans in 2019 –67.8 percent—will come primarily from payroll taxes, not income taxes. While the income tax is progressive, with average rates rising with income, the payroll tax is regressive, with the highest average rate falling on Americans with the lowest incomes.
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Average income tends to rise dramatically as someone ages and gains education and experience. Viewing just one year of income tax data without digging any deeper misses some crucial context.
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Since most U.S. businesses are pass-through businesses, such as partnerships, S corporations, LLCs, and sole proprietorships, changes to the individual income tax, especially to top marginal rates, can affect a business’s incentives to invest, hire, and produce.
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From 1986 to 2016, the top 1 percent’s share of income taxes rose from 25.8 percent to 37.3 percent, while the bottom 90 percent’s share fell from 45.3 percent to 30.5 percent.
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Federal tax rates vary by income group and tax source. The federal tax system redistributes income from high- and low-income taxpayers.
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Lawmakers recently introduced a bill to repeal the $10,000 cap on the state and local deduction (SALT) and raise the top tax rate on ordinary income from 37 percent to 39.6 percent.
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We estimate that a new proposal to expand the EITC would reduce federal revenue by $1.8 trillion and decrease long-run GDP by 0.29 percent, while boosting labor force participation for low-income tax filers by 822,788 full-time equivalent jobs.
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In the 1950s, when the top marginal income tax rate reached 92 percent, the top 1 percent of taxpayers paid an effective rate of only 16.9 percent. As top marginal rates have fallen, the tax burden on the rich has risen.
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The federal income tax and federal payroll tax make up a growing share of federal revenue. Individual income taxes have become a central pillar of the federal revenue system, now comprising nearly half of all revenue.
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