Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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Governments often justify higher tax burdens with more extensive public services. However, the cost of these services can be more than half of an average worker’s salary.
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Universal savings accounts would boost savings for low-income households, allowing them to better withstand economic shocks, such as pandemics and recessions, and plan for major expenses, such as an expanded family, education, and housing needs.
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Newer products like spirits-based hard seltzers and ready-to-drink cocktails have fueled growth, while also blurring the lines of a categorical tax system. The result has been a spirited competition throughout the alcohol industry for market share, including calls to reform tax policy.
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The recent push to increase taxes on the wealthy has gained significant traction across Europe. This report highlights the obstacles and complex interplay between tax policy and economic behavior, suggesting that simply raising tax rates on the wealthy might not yield the intended social benefits.
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The Section 232 tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum raised the cost of production for manufacturers, reducing employment in those industries, raising prices for consumers, and hurting exports.
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Carryover provisions help businesses “smooth” their risk and income, making the tax code more neutral across investments and over time.
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Varying local trade tax rates impact business investment and local government revenue across Germany’s municipalities.
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Gross receipts taxes impose costs on consumers, workers, and shareholders alike. Shifting from these economically damaging taxes can thus be a part of states’ plans for improving their tax codes in an increasingly competitive tax landscape.
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Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
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At the end of 2025, the individual tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire all at once. Without congressional action, most taxpayers will see a notable tax increase relative to current policy in 2026.
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About half of all European OECD countries have either announced, proposed, or implemented a DST. Because these taxes mainly impact U.S. companies and are thus perceived as discriminatory, the United States responded to the policies with retaliatory tariff threats, urging countries to abandon unilateral measures.
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The outcome of the digital tax debate will likely shape domestic and international taxation for decades to come. Designing these policies based on sound principles will be essential in ensuring they can withstand challenges arising in the rapidly changing economic and technological environment of the 21st century.
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States have generally tried to encourage capital investment. Throwback and throwout rules are an unfortunate example of penalizing it.
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As tempting as inheritance, estate, and gift taxes might look—especially when the OECD notes them as a way to reduce wealth inequality—their limited capacity to collect revenue and their negative impact on entrepreneurial activity, saving, and work should make policymakers consider their repeal instead of boosting them.
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One relatively easy but meaningful step policymakers can take to make future tax seasons less burdensome is to modernize their state’s nonresident income tax filing, withholding, and reciprocity laws.
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The global landscape of international corporate taxation is undergoing significant transformations as jurisdictions grapple with the difficulty of defining and apportioning corporate income for the purposes of tax.
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EU Member States should seek to minimize the rate and broaden the base of electricity duties, consolidating their rates to the required minimum rate.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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Savings and investment are critical activities, both for individuals’ and families’ financial security and for the health of the national economy as a whole. As such, policymakers should consider how they can help mitigate—rather than add to—tax codes’ biases against saving and investment.
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Different taxes have different economic effects, so policymakers should always consider how tax revenue is raised and not just how much is raised.
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