Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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How do consumption tax codes compare among European OECD countries? Explore our new map to see how consumption tax systems in Europe compare.
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The corporate tax component of our Index measures each state’s principal tax on business activities. Most states levy a corporate income tax on a company’s profits (receipts minus most business expenses, including compensation and the cost of goods sold), while some states levy gross receipts taxes, which allow few or no deductions for a company’s expenses.
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The latest IRS data continues to illustrate that the net effect of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was to reduce effective tax rates across income groups. In 2019, the TCJA again expanded the use of several deductions and credits, made the standard deduction more favorable than itemizing, and lowered taxes for most taxpayers.
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How do individual income tax codes compare among European OECD countries? Explore our new map to see how individual income tax systems in Europe compare.
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Even in 2020, jack-o’-lanterns and fake skeletons have popped up in neighborhoods as they do every October, although Halloween may look and play out differently this time around.
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The IRS recently released the new 2021 tax brackets and rates. Explore updated credits, deductions, and exemptions, including the standard deduction & personal exemption, Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), Child Tax Credit (CTC), capital gains brackets, qualified business income deduction (199A), and the annual exclusion for gifts.
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Our new guide identifies key areas for improvement in UK tax policy and provides recommendations that would support long-term growth without putting a dent in government revenues.
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What has President Joe Biden proposed in terms of tax policy changes? Our experts provide the details and analyze the potential economic, revenue, and distributional impacts.
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A tax code that is competitive and neutral promotes sustainable economic growth and investment while raising sufficient revenue for government priorities.
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Following the Wayfair decision, states’ move to tax online sales has increased the importance of simplicity in sales tax systems, as sellers now have to deal with differing regulations in multiple states. There are over 11,000 standard sales tax jurisdictions in the United States in 2020
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Our International Index compares OECD countries on over 40 variables that measure how well each country’s tax system promotes sustainable economic growth and investment.
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A competitive tax code has never been more important, and these tax policy improvements can both strengthen the short-term economic recovery and promote long-term economic growth in Nebraska.
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17 European countries have implemented a carbon tax, ranging from less than €1 per metric ton of carbon emissions in Ukraine and Poland to over €100 in Sweden.
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Contrary to the perceptions of some, new data indicate that (1) income earned after taxes and transfers has increased over the past several decades for all income groups; (2) the federal tax system is increasingly progressive; and (3) that system relies heavily on higher earners to raise revenue for government services and means-tested transfers.
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State throwback and throwout rules may not be widely understood, but they have a notable impact on business location and investment decisions and reduce economic efficiency for the states which impose such rules.
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Heading into Election Day, the Illinois legislature and Governor J.B. Pritzker (D) are trying to convince voters to scrap a key constitutional feature of Illinois’ tax system: a provision in the state constitution that prohibits a graduated-rate income tax.
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Over the last three years, eight European OECD countries have made changes to their dividend tax rates. Iceland, Norway, Slovenia, Switzerland, and Turkey increased their rates, each between roughly one and three percentage points. France, Greece, and Latvia cut their rates by 10 percentage points.
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Five states currently collect corporate AMTs: California, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. This is a significant drop from the eight states that levied AMTs in tax year 2017.
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