Trump Tariffs: The Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,300 per US household in 2025.
32 min read
Featured Articles
The Truth About Tariffs—Fact-Checking Trump’s Trade Claims
Do tariffs really level the playing field, or are they just bad economics? In this emergency episode, we fact-check the Trump administration’s claims that retaliatory tariffs make trade fairer.
Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Calculations Are Nonsense, Will Punish Mutually Beneficial Trade
Despite characterizing the tariffs as “reciprocal,” the White House didn’t actually measure tariffs, currency manipulation, or trade barrier policies employed by other countries. Instead, it drew its estimates from something else entirely: bilateral trade deficits in goods.
7 min read
Who Pays Tariffs? Americans Will Bear the Costs of the Next Trade War
Rather than hurting foreign exporters, the economic evidence shows American firms and consumers were hardest hit by tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first-term.
5 min read
Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs
Contrary to the president’s promises, the tariffs will cause short-term pain and long-term pain, no matter the ways people and businesses change their behavior.
5 min read
How Will President Trump’s Tariffs Affect the Value of the Dollar?
President Trump has announced that new tariffs will go into effect on April 2, following several weeks of threats. These new tariffs are likely to be broader in scope than the limited ones implemented thus far. So who is likely to pay for them?
7 min read
Testimony: Alternatives to Tariffs to Boost US Competitiveness
While tariffs are often presented as tools to enhance US competitiveness, a long history of evidence and recent experience shows they lead to increased costs for consumers and unprotected producers and harmful retaliation, which outweighs the benefits afforded to protected industries.
Learning from the First Trade War: Retaliation Hurts US Exporters
As we learned in the first trade war, retaliation will exact harm on US exporters by lowering their export sales—and the US-imposed tariffs will directly harm exporters too. US-imposed tariffs can burden exporters by increasing input costs, which acts like a tax on exports.
4 min read
How Will Trump’s Universal and China Tariffs Impact the Economy?
President-elect Trump may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire. Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy.
5 min read
The European VAT is Not a Discriminatory Tax Against US Exports
The Trump administration appears to be moving in a “reciprocal” policy direction despite the significant negative economic consequences for American consumers of across-the-board tariffs on goods coming into the US. However, the EU’s VAT system should not be used as a justification for retaliatory tariffs.
6 min read
Donald Trump Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min read
Trump’s Tariff Proposals Would Raise Tariff Rates to Great Depression-Era Levels
Using tariff policy to reallocate investment and jobs is a costly mistake—that’s a history lesson we should not forget.
6 min read
Revenue Estimates of Trump’s Universal Baseline Tariffs
Lawmakers will need to pursue fiscal responsibility as they address the tax law expirations, but fiscal responsibility requires finding sound ways to pay for spending priorities. Tariffs don’t make the cut.
4 min read
Why the Economic Effects of Taxes (Including Tariffs) Matter
Estimating the economic effects of different types of taxes informs policymakers about the trade-offs of raising revenue in a given way.
5 min read
2024 Election Insights | Can Trump’s Tariff Plan Really Replace the Income Tax?
Can tariffs truly replace income taxes in today’s economy? In this episode, we examine the bold and controversial proposal from former President Trump to replace income taxes with tariffs. What would this dramatic shift mean for everyday Americans, particularly those with lower incomes? And would it actually work?
All Related Articles
Trump Tariffs: The Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,300 per US household in 2025.
32 min read
Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
On April 10, the House adopted the Senate’s amended version of the budget resolution, which allows $5.3 trillion in deficit-financed tax cuts.
8 min read
How Much Revenue Can Tariffs Really Raise for the Federal Government?
Could tariffs, a form of government finance heavily relied upon in the 18th and 19th centuries, function as a major source of revenue for a modern, developed economy in the 21st century?
16 min read
The Truth About Tariffs—Fact-Checking Trump’s Trade Claims
Do tariffs really level the playing field, or are they just bad economics? In this emergency episode, we fact-check the Trump administration’s claims that retaliatory tariffs make trade fairer.
Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Calculations Are Nonsense, Will Punish Mutually Beneficial Trade
Despite characterizing the tariffs as “reciprocal,” the White House didn’t actually measure tariffs, currency manipulation, or trade barrier policies employed by other countries. Instead, it drew its estimates from something else entirely: bilateral trade deficits in goods.
7 min read
The Global Tax Deal, Tax Cuts, and Tariffs—5 Major Tax Debates
What are the biggest tax stories shaping policy today—and what do they mean for you? In our 100th episode, we break down the five biggest tax stories, from the global tax deal to the looming expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
How Will President Trump’s Tariffs Affect the Value of the Dollar?
President Trump has announced that new tariffs will go into effect on April 2, following several weeks of threats. These new tariffs are likely to be broader in scope than the limited ones implemented thus far. So who is likely to pay for them?
7 min read
Discrimination vs. Neutrality: A Case Study in the Middle of a Trade War
Policymakers should aim for neutral tax policies that support stable revenues like VATs and avoid inviting trade conflicts with discriminatory and economically harmful policies like DSTs.
6 min read
Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs
Contrary to the president’s promises, the tariffs will cause short-term pain and long-term pain, no matter the ways people and businesses change their behavior.
5 min read
Learning from the First Trade War: Retaliation Hurts US Exporters
As we learned in the first trade war, retaliation will exact harm on US exporters by lowering their export sales—and the US-imposed tariffs will directly harm exporters too. US-imposed tariffs can burden exporters by increasing input costs, which acts like a tax on exports.
4 min read
The Latest on the Global Tax Agreement
The agreement represents a major change for tax competition, and many countries will be rethinking their tax policies for multinationals. If there is no agreement on changes to Pillar Two or digital services taxes, retaliatory American tariffs could be on the horizon.
8 min read
Who Pays Tariffs? Americans Will Bear the Costs of the Next Trade War
Rather than hurting foreign exporters, the economic evidence shows American firms and consumers were hardest hit by tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first-term.
5 min read
The European VAT is Not a Discriminatory Tax Against US Exports
The Trump administration appears to be moving in a “reciprocal” policy direction despite the significant negative economic consequences for American consumers of across-the-board tariffs on goods coming into the US. However, the EU’s VAT system should not be used as a justification for retaliatory tariffs.
6 min read
Trump’s Tariff War Returns
Are tariffs making everything more expensive? With Trump’s new tariff plans hitting $1.1 trillion in imports—far more than his first term—prices could rise for businesses and consumers alike.
Transatlantic Tensions: What the German Election Could Mean for International Tax & Trade Policy
As the third-largest economy in the world, with an influential voice within EU policymaking, and the United States among its most important trading partners, Germany’s next government will play a particularly important role in deciding the direction of European tax, trade, and transatlantic policy.
6 min read
Will Your Taxes Go Up? Best- and Worst-case Scenarios for Tax Reform in 2025
What will the future of tax policy look like? In this episode, we dive into the critical challenges and opportunities looming on the horizon, especially with major tax cuts set to expire, which could increase taxes for 62 percent of filers.
Blog
Short FormAre Tariffs the Ghost of Christmas Future?
The holiday season is marked by time with friends and family, joy, and gift-giving. But could tax policy make the sticker shock from your shopping list next year tariff-ying?
4 min read
Behind the Numbers: Budget Shenanigans and the National Debt
What happens to your taxes when the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expires on January 1, 2026? In this episode, we explore the potential tax hikes facing millions of Americans and the debate over measuring the budgetary impacts of extending tax cuts.
Questions About Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Reconciliation After the Election
Fiscal pressures are likely to weigh heavily on lawmakers as they craft a tax reform package. That increased pressure could result in well-designed tax reform that prioritizes economic growth, simplicity, and stability, or it could encourage budget gimmicks and economically harmful offsets. Lawmakers should avoid the latter.
8 min read
How Will Trump’s Universal and China Tariffs Impact the Economy?
President-elect Trump may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire. Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy.
5 min read