Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
33 min readThe tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
33 min readOur experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
10 min readOur preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions included in the May 12 text would increase long-run GDP by 0.6 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
7 min readAccording to the latest economic data from the US Census Bureau, the average per capita state and local tax burden is $7,109. However, collections vary widely by state, reflecting differences in tax rates and bases, natural resource endowments, the scale and scope of taxable economic activity in each state, and residents’ political preferences.
5 min readThe Trump administration advocates an “energy dominance” agenda to boost US energy production and lower costs. Its tariff agenda runs directly counter to it.
5 min readFacts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
2 min readThe Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) introduced a series of new targeted tax breaks, many of which seem to be much more expensive than originally forecasted. Understandably, repealing these subsidies is a key option for policymakers looking to pay to extend the expiring broader tax cuts passed in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
7 min readThe amount of revenue states raise through roadway-related revenues varies significantly across the US. Only three states raise enough revenue to fully cover their highway spending.
5 min readIn a perilous economic and fiscal environment, with instability created by Trump’s trade war and publicly held debt on track to surpass the highest levels ever recorded within five years, a lot rides on how Republicans navigate tax and spending reforms in reconciliation.
6 min readWhile fixing infrastructure funding has not been a focus of the tax expiration debate, it would be a smart way to pay for at least a small portion of the expiring tax cuts. In recent years, highway funding has exceeded highway revenues, and the introduction of electric vehicles has made the gas tax increasingly obsolete.
7 min readThe House Budget Committee has released a budget resolution that specifies large reductions in both taxes and spending over the next decade, paving the way to extend the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and potentially cut other taxes.
6 min readAs Republicans look for ways to offset the budgetary cost of extending the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and potentially enacting other tax cuts, the latest estimates indicate several trillion dollars could be raised by reducing tax credits and other preferences in the tax code.
5 min readThirty-nine states will begin 2025 with notable tax changes, including nine states cutting individual income taxes. Recent years have seen a wave of significant tax reforms, and the changes scheduled for 2025 show that these efforts have not let up.
25 min readFiscal pressures are likely to weigh heavily on lawmakers as they craft a tax reform package. That increased pressure could result in well-designed tax reform that prioritizes economic growth, simplicity, and stability, or it could encourage budget gimmicks and economically harmful offsets. Lawmakers should avoid the latter.
8 min readSpain’s central government could learn some valuable lessons from its regional governments and other European countries about sound tax policy.
7 min readEven though energy prices have declined from their recent peak, the United Kingdom is one of the few countries in Europe continuing to rely on windfall profits taxes to support households with the rising cost of living.
4 min readThe State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
115 min readWe estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min readSpain’s central government is considering making its windfall taxes on energy companies and the banking sector permanent.
6 min readWhile federal tax collections—especially corporate taxes—have reached historically high levels, these gains have not kept pace with escalating spending, particularly on debt interest, leading to a substantial and concerning budget deficit in FY24.
6 min read