The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic poses a triple challenge for tax policy in the United States. Lawmakers are tasked with crafting a policy response that will accelerate the economic recovery, reduce the mounting deficit, and protect the most vulnerable.
To assist lawmakers in navigating the challenge, and to help the American public understand the tax changes being proposed, the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy modeled how 70 potential changes to the tax code would affect the U.S. economy, distribution of the tax burden, and federal revenue.
In tax policy there is an ever-present trade-off among how much revenue a tax will raise, who bears the burden of a tax, and what impact a tax will have on economic growth. Armed with the information in our new book, Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, policymakers can debate the relative merits and trade-offs of each option to improve the tax code in a post-pandemic world.
Quite the Skewed Business Subsidy: QSBS Exclusion Is a Poor Way to Encourage Investment
QSBS exclusion distorts business choices by influencing business structure choices, timing of expansion, and investor’s decisions on capital allocation.
5 min read
How Does the OBBBA Impact Debt, Deficits, and Tax Revenue?
Our modeling indicates the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will boost economic growth but increase deficits, leading to record high debt in 2028 that rises to 124 percent of GDP by 2034.
7 min read
Some States Will Tax NCTI Despite Prior Votes to Exempt International Income
Several states have decoupled from GILTI by name rather than statutory citation. Lawmakers in those states should amend these statutes to ensure that their tax code does not accidentally incorporate a much more aggressive tax on international income than the tax from which they previously decoupled.
6 min read
How Tax Policy Can Reduce the Harm Caused by Smoking
To design an effective excise tax policy around smoking tobacco & nicotine products, it is crucial to consider the concept of harm reduction.
6 min read
New Jersey Considers Deeply Flawed Data Tax in Waning Days of Session
New Jersey’s proposed data tax on corporations is based on dubious premises and made worse by its poor design.
5 min read
A Budget for Growth: Why the UK Must Shift from Tax Hikes to Pro-Growth Policies
The recently proposed UK budget contains several tax measures that put a greater burden on the working class and ultimately fails to tackle the deeper structural problems of the UK’s tax code.
6 min read
Why Swiss Voters Should Be Skeptical of the Billionaire Tax
Switzerland’s proposed 50 percent billionaire estate tax promises negligible revenue, risks economic harm, and strips cantons of their autonomy and tax competition.
5 min read
IEEPA Tariffs Are Down from April Threats
Since April, the tariffs that have been implemented in practice are mostly, but not exclusively, lower than what was originally threatened.
5 min read
Delaware Governor’s Proposal to Decouple from OBBBA Is Ill-Advised
Delaware Governor Matt Meyer’s proposal to decouple from the full expensing provision of the OBBBA would make the state’s tax code less friendly toward investment and undermine long-term growth.
5 min read
Tariff Dividends Would Cost More than Tariff Revenues Will Generate
Under nearly any design option, sending out $2,000 payments to Americans would increase, not decrease, the federal budget deficit. A better way to provide relief from the burden of tariffs would be to eliminate the tariffs.
4 min read