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Evaluating U.S. Tax Reform Options & Trade-Offs

The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic poses a triple challenge for tax policy in the United States. Lawmakers are tasked with crafting a policy response that will accelerate the economic recovery, reduce the mounting deficit, and protect the most vulnerable.

To assist lawmakers in navigating the challenge, and to help the American public understand the tax changes being proposed, the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy modeled how 70 potential changes to the tax code would affect the U.S. economy, distribution of the tax burden, and federal revenue.

In tax policy there is an ever-present trade-off among how much revenue a tax will raise, who bears the burden of a tax, and what impact a tax will have on economic growth. Armed with the information in our new book, Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, policymakers can debate the relative merits and trade-offs of each option to improve the tax code in a post-pandemic world.

 

No Tax on Social Security vs. Proposed $4,000 Senior Bonus Senior Tax Deduction One Big Beautiful Bill Act OBBB

How Does the Additional Senior Deduction Compare to No Tax on Social Security?

The increased senior deduction with the phaseout would deliver a larger tax cut to lower-middle- and middle-income taxpayers compared to exempting all Social Security benefits from income taxation and would not weaken the trust funds as much. But given the temporary nature of the policy, it would increase the deficit-impact of the reconciliation bills without boosting long-run economic growth.

3 min read
2023 corporate tax rates and brackets including corporate income tax data

Here’s Why Corporate Taxes May Appear Lower After the OBBBA

Near-term corporate tax payments may fall, and financial statement data may appear unusual, but over time, revenues will stabilize, book-tax gaps will fade, and the US tax code will incentivize domestic investment.

8 min read
Global Tax policy Ideas, 2026

Three Global Tax Policy Ideas in Need of a Reality Check

Formulary apportionment, global tax harmonization, and broad tax increases on services all face design, implementation, and economic barriers. When designing tax systems, policymakers should focus on doing the basic things well and avoid harmful policies that could stunt growth.

7 min read
State tax trends 2026, unites states tax policy

State Tax Trends to Watch in 2026

State lawmakers around the country have begun their legislative sessions, and many are considering tax reform. This piece highlights some of the areas on which they are likely to focus.

4 min read
2026 State Income Tax Trends and Rates Decreasing Diverging High Tax and Low Tax States

The State Income Tax Divergence

Lawmakers in many states continue to pursue additional income tax relief, while their counterparts elsewhere pursue the opposite goal.

3 min read
AI Tax Policy

When Taxing AI, Don’t Reinvent the Wheel

AI technology has a wide range of potential economic outcomes. It would be a mistake to tailor tax policy to the extreme end of that range. Still, policymakers shouldn’t do nothing: they should instead make tax reforms that are sound regardless of which AI scenario emerges.

7 min read