The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic poses a triple challenge for tax policy in the United States. Lawmakers are tasked with crafting a policy response that will accelerate the economic recovery, reduce the mounting deficit, and protect the most vulnerable.
To assist lawmakers in navigating the challenge, and to help the American public understand the tax changes being proposed, the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy modeled how 70 potential changes to the tax code would affect the U.S. economy, distribution of the tax burden, and federal revenue.
In tax policy there is an ever-present trade-off among how much revenue a tax will raise, who bears the burden of a tax, and what impact a tax will have on economic growth. Armed with the information in our new book, Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, policymakers can debate the relative merits and trade-offs of each option to improve the tax code in a post-pandemic world.
Cigarette Smuggling Cost States Nearly $5 Billion in Forgone Excise Tax Revenue Each Year
Tax avoidance is a natural consequence of tax policy. Policymakers should consider the unintended consequences, both to public health and public coffers, of the excise taxes and regulatory regimes for cigarettes and other nicotine products.
5 min readLouisiana Now Boasts a More Competitive and Pro-Growth Tax Code
Lawmakers will enter the 2025 fiscal legislative session with an opportunity to build on the successes of the November special session. Efforts should include addressing the outstanding issues within the corporate and sales tax codes that currently hold the state back.
7 min readAll About That Base(line)
If lawmakers are serious about pro-growth policies and fiscal responsibility, they will need to put policies forward that achieve those goals. Simply adjusting the baseline doesn’t reduce actual deficits in the coming years.
7 min readTax Competitiveness and Interstate Migration
Recent data suggest that tax competitiveness plays a significant role in residents’ relocation decisions.
3 min readAlabama Expands Tax-Free Overtime Eligibility, but Should Repeal Entire Exemption
Tax reform in Alabama is desirable and very possible. However, the overtime exemption, which complicates the tax code, reduces neutrality, and adds to compliance and reporting costs, is not a good example.
4 min readHow the Payroll Tax Base Has Changed Over Time
The Social Security trust funds face looming insolvency if policymakers don’t reform the program. One issue that garners a lot of attention in the debate over solutions is the payroll tax cap.
3 min readMomentum Slows for State Drug Legalization Policies via 2024 State Ballot Initiatives
With the significant potential for state revenues, and the prior political success of arguments that legalization can shift consumers to safer legal markets, it seems likely that states will continue to see legislation and ballot initiatives to legalize marijuana at the state level—even states that failed to do so this election.
5 min readQuestions About Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Reconciliation After the Election
Fiscal pressures are likely to weigh heavily on lawmakers as they craft a tax reform package. That increased pressure could result in well-designed tax reform that prioritizes economic growth, simplicity, and stability, or it could encourage budget gimmicks and economically harmful offsets. Lawmakers should avoid the latter.
8 min readHow Will Trump’s Universal and China Tariffs Impact the Economy?
President-elect Trump may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire. Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy.
5 min readSpain’s Poorly Designed Tax Policy Hurts Its Competitiveness
Spain’s central government could learn some valuable lessons from its regional governments and other European countries about sound tax policy.
7 min read