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Evaluating U.S. Tax Reform Options & Trade-Offs

The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic poses a triple challenge for tax policy in the United States. Lawmakers are tasked with crafting a policy response that will accelerate the economic recovery, reduce the mounting deficit, and protect the most vulnerable.

To assist lawmakers in navigating the challenge, and to help the American public understand the tax changes being proposed, the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy modeled how 70 potential changes to the tax code would affect the U.S. economy, distribution of the tax burden, and federal revenue.

In tax policy there is an ever-present trade-off among how much revenue a tax will raise, who bears the burden of a tax, and what impact a tax will have on economic growth. Armed with the information in our new book, Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, policymakers can debate the relative merits and trade-offs of each option to improve the tax code in a post-pandemic world.

 

2026 State Income Tax Trends and Rates Decreasing Diverging High Tax and Low Tax States

The State Income Tax Divergence

Lawmakers in many states continue to pursue additional income tax relief, while their counterparts elsewhere pursue the opposite goal.

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AI Tax Policy

When Taxing AI, Don’t Reinvent the Wheel

AI technology has a wide range of potential economic outcomes. It would be a mistake to tailor tax policy to the extreme end of that range. Still, policymakers shouldn’t do nothing: they should instead make tax reforms that are sound regardless of which AI scenario emerges.

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EU VAT Compliance Gap, Europe Tax Revenue Government

The EU’s Questionable VAT Policy

The value-added tax (VAT) compliance gap—the additional VAT revenue that could be collected if all taxpayers, consumers, and businesses fully complied with VAT rules—continues to increase, reaching €128 billion in 2023.

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Inflation Reduction Act IRA repeal and reforms

Will the OBBBA Tax Cuts Grow the US Economy?

Over the long run, OBBBA’s permanent extension of lower marginal tax rates on work, saving, and investment lays a solid foundation for stronger economic growth.

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