Tariff Tracker: Impact of Trump Tariffs & Trade War by the Numbers
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
51 min read
Featured Articles
Even After Exemptions, More than Half of Food Products Continue to Face Trump Tariffs
The Trump tariffs will likely raise the cost of food for Americans, particularly for liqueurs and spirits, baked goods, coffee, fish, and beer.
4 min read
The Best Way to Provide Relief Is to Repeal Tariffs, Not Offer Tariff Rebate Checks
As US businesses and consumers face higher costs of goods due to the Trump tariffs, Senator Hawley (R-MO) has introduced legislation to rebate tariff revenue to provide financial relief. The proposal takes a similar approach to the stimulus checks issued during the COVID-19 pandemic.
4 min read
The Truth About Tariffs—Fact-Checking Trump’s Trade Claims
Do tariffs really level the playing field, or are they just bad economics? In this emergency episode, we fact-check the Trump administration’s claims that retaliatory tariffs make trade fairer.
Who Pays Tariffs? Americans Will Bear the Costs of the Next Trade War
Rather than hurting foreign exporters, the economic evidence shows American firms and consumers were hardest hit by tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first-term.
5 min read
Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs
Contrary to the president’s promises, the tariffs will cause short-term pain and long-term pain, no matter the ways people and businesses change their behavior.
5 min read
Testimony: Alternatives to Tariffs to Boost US Competitiveness
While tariffs are often presented as tools to enhance US competitiveness, a long history of evidence and recent experience shows they lead to increased costs for consumers and unprotected producers and harmful retaliation, which outweighs the benefits afforded to protected industries.
Learning from the First Trade War: Retaliation Hurts US Exporters
As we learned in the first trade war, retaliation will exact harm on US exporters by lowering their export sales—and the US-imposed tariffs will directly harm exporters too. US-imposed tariffs can burden exporters by increasing input costs, which acts like a tax on exports.
4 min read
How Will Trump’s Universal and China Tariffs Impact the Economy?
President-elect Trump may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire. Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy.
5 min read
The European VAT is Not a Discriminatory Tax Against US Exports
The Trump administration appears to be moving in a “reciprocal” policy direction despite the significant negative economic consequences for American consumers of across-the-board tariffs on goods coming into the US. However, the EU’s VAT system should not be used as a justification for retaliatory tariffs.
6 min read
Donald Trump Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min read
Trump’s Tariff Proposals Would Raise Tariff Rates to Great Depression-Era Levels
Using tariff policy to reallocate investment and jobs is a costly mistake—that’s a history lesson we should not forget.
6 min read
Revenue Estimates of Trump’s Universal Baseline Tariffs
Lawmakers will need to pursue fiscal responsibility as they address the tax law expirations, but fiscal responsibility requires finding sound ways to pay for spending priorities. Tariffs don’t make the cut.
4 min read
Why the Economic Effects of Taxes (Including Tariffs) Matter
Estimating the economic effects of different types of taxes informs policymakers about the trade-offs of raising revenue in a given way.
5 min read
2024 Election Insights | Can Trump’s Tariff Plan Really Replace the Income Tax?
Can tariffs truly replace income taxes in today’s economy? In this episode, we examine the bold and controversial proposal from former President Trump to replace income taxes with tariffs. What would this dramatic shift mean for everyday Americans, particularly those with lower incomes? And would it actually work?
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Trump’s Tariffs Head to the Supreme Court
In this episode of The Deduction, we unpack Trump’s tariffs as they head to the Supreme Court. We break down scenarios if the Court upholds or strikes the tariffs, who really pays, and how Congress might respond—your concise guide to tariffs and the Supreme Court.
What You Should Know About the Trump Tariffs Being Challenged at the Supreme Court
The Supreme Court is deciding a case over whether the President can impose sweeping tax increases on imported goods. It’s a multi-trillion-dollar question with enormous implications for the US economy, taxpayers, and limitations on emergency powers.
5 min read
Testimony: Digital Services Taxes in the European Union
Since digital services taxes deliver limited revenue, shift the burden to European consumers, and risk provoking trade disputes, it’s time for policymakers to rethink their approach.
Financial Ruin? Why Losing IEEPA Tariff Revenue Won’t Change the Long-Term US Fiscal Trajectory
The US fiscal trajectory is on an unsustainable path over the next 35 years, regardless of whether the IEEPA tariffs are struck down or maintained.
3 min read
The Transatlantic Balancing Act
Instead of getting stuck in a reactionary posture, European countries should simply aim for competitiveness, and the EU can support that work with stronger, more stable trade relationships.
The Trump Administration is Building a Fiscal House of Cards
President Donald Trump’s fixation on tariffs as a solution for just about everything, including the deficit, has led him to run roughshod over the law and norms of international trade.
Fiscal Forum: Future of the EU Tax Mix with Dr. Irma Mosquera Valderrama
Sean Bray interviews Dr. Irma Mosquera Valderrama, Full Professor of Tax Governance at Leiden Law School (Leiden University) and EU Jean Monnet Chair Holder on EU Tax Governance about the EU tax mix.
24 min read
The Latest on the Global Tax Agreement
The agreement represents a major change for tax competition as well, and many countries will rethink their tax policies for multinationals. However, the US will continue to chart its own course, and other countries may prefer to do the same, depending on the final outcome of the G7 statement.
8 min read
Trump Pharma Tariffs Would Raise Drug Prices for Americans
President Trump has recently floated the idea of imposing tariffs of up to 250 percent on pharmaceuticals, with the intention of shifting pharmaceutical production to the US. These tariffs would not only drive drug prices higher but could also lead to shortages and reduce long-run drug innovation.
3 min read
A Tax Law for Manufacturers, but a Trade Policy Against Them
While the One Big Beautiful Bill Act tries to buoy manufacturing, President Trump’s tariffs are an anvil dragging the sector down.
Trump Tariffs Explained: Grocery Prices and Rebate Checks
Trump’s 2025 tariffs will hit nearly three-quarters of US food imports, raising prices on products that are often difficult or impossible to produce domestically. Senator Hawley has proposed a rebate program to return some of the revenue to households—but would it actually help?
The Best Way to Provide Relief Is to Repeal Tariffs, Not Offer Tariff Rebate Checks
As US businesses and consumers face higher costs of goods due to the Trump tariffs, Senator Hawley (R-MO) has introduced legislation to rebate tariff revenue to provide financial relief. The proposal takes a similar approach to the stimulus checks issued during the COVID-19 pandemic.
4 min read
FAQ: The One Big Beautiful Bill, Explained
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
24 min read
Trump’s Next Task Is Turning ‘Beautiful Bill’ Into Economic Boon
The administration has a strong desire to boost manufacturing investment and there are many provisions in the new tax bill that support this aim. But the administration’s erratic trade policy is driving up the costs of key inputs that manufacturers rely on to build things in the US.
Global Minimum Tax Battles Put Emerging Economies in Crossfire
President Trump made clear that the US wouldn’t accept the global minimum tax (known as Pillar Two) from the OECD in its current form.
Digital Services Taxes State of Play
Policymakers continue to debate international tax rules after the US gained agreement on a new approach at the G7 that could result in US anti-avoidance policies existing side-by-side with the global minimum tax.
4 min read
Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law on July 4, 2025.
18 min read
Will the Big Beautiful Bill Lead to an Economic Boom or Just Modestly Higher Growth?
Lawmakers are right to be concerned about deficits and economic growth. The best path to address those concerns is to ensure OBBB provides permanent full expensing of capital investment, avoids inefficient tax cuts, and offsets remaining revenue losses by closing tax loopholes and reducing spending.
8 min read
Trump’s Policies Deal a Double Blow to Tax-Cutting States
President’s Trump’s policies would throw high-tax states a life raft as they swim against the tide—before potentially hitting all states with a tariff-induced economic tsunami that could force lawmakers’ hands and reverse recent tax relief.
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Short FormCongressional Tax Writers and Scorekeepers You Should Know
When you hear about tax policy, you may think of the IRS, the agency responsible for collecting federal taxes. But who is responsible for drafting, reviewing, assessing, and passing tax legislation at the federal level?
4 min read