May 31, 2019

Tracking the Economic Impact of U.S. Tariffs and Retaliatory Actions

10/15/2019 update: The United States has postponed a scheduled tariff hike from 25 percent to 30 percent on $250 billion worth of goods from China. This update also includes organizational changes, new tables, and updated data on retaliatory tariffs.


Related Research

Introduction

The Trump administration has imposed and threatened several rounds of tariffs, and other countries have responded to these measures. Using the Tax Foundation Taxes and Growth Model, we analyze the effects of imposed, threatened, and retaliatory tariffs on the United States economy. Tariffs damage economic well-being, and lead to a net loss in production and jobs, and lower levels of income.

According to the Tax Foundation model, the tariffs imposed so far by the Trump administration would reduce long-run GDP by 0.25 percent ($62.17 billion) and wages by 0.16 percent and eliminate 192,600 full-time equivalent jobs.

If the Trump administration acts on outstanding threats to levy additional tariffs, GDP would fall by an additional 0.32 percent ($80.65 billion), resulting in 0.22 percent lower wages and 250,100 fewer full-time equivalent jobs.

Other countries have announced intentions to impose tariffs on U.S. exports. If these tariffs are fully imposed, we estimate that U.S. GDP would fall another 0.07 percent ($17.83 billion) and cost an additional 55,300 full-time equivalent jobs.

If all tariffs announced thus far were fully imposed, U.S. GDP would fall by 0.64 percent ($160.65 billion) in the long run, effectively offsetting almost 40 percent of the long-run impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Wages would fall by 0.42 percent and employment would fall by nearly 500,000.

Tariffs Raise Prices and Reduce Economic Growth

Economists generally agree that free trade increases the level of economic output and income, and conversely, that trade barriers reduce economic output and income.[1] Historical evidence shows that tariffs raise prices and reduce available quantities of goods and services for U.S. businesses and consumers, which results in lower income, reduced employment, and lower economic output.[2]

Tariffs could reduce U.S. output through a few channels. One possibility is that a tariff may be passed on to producers and consumers in the form of higher prices. Tariffs can raise the cost of parts and materials, which would raise the price of goods using those inputs and reduce private sector output. This would result in lower incomes for both owners of capital and workers. Similarly, higher consumer prices due to tariffs would reduce the after-tax value of both labor and capital income. Because these higher prices would reduce the return to labor and capital, they would incentivize Americans to work and invest less, leading to lower output.

Alternatively, the U.S. dollar may appreciate in response to tariffs, offsetting the potential price increase on U.S. consumers. However, the more valuable dollar would make it more difficult for exporters to sell their goods on the global market, resulting in lower revenues for exporters. This would also result in lower U.S. output and incomes for both workers and owners of capital, reducing incentives for work and investment, and leading to a smaller economy.

Total Impact of Imposed and Announced Tariffs

If all tariffs announced thus far were fully imposed by the United States and foreign jurisdictions, U.S. GDP would fall by 0.64 percent ($160.65 billion) in the long run. Wages would fall by 0.42 percent and employment would fall by 498,000.

Table 1: Total Impact of Imposed and Announced Tariffs
Tariff Revenue (Billions of 2018 Dollars) $196.63
Long-run GDP -0.64%
GDP (Billions of 2018 Dollars) -$160.65
Wages -0.42%
FTE Jobs -498,000

The 0.64 percent reduction in long-run GDP is nearly 40 percent of the total long-run impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which we estimated to raise GDP by 1.7 percent in the long run.

Trump's tariffs are a new tax on Americans, trump tax law tariffs, what tariffs did Trump impose?

Tariffs Imposed by The United States

The Trump administration has imposed several rounds of tariffs,[3] which we estimate will amount to a total tax increase of nearly $86 billion.[4]

Section 232, Steel and Aluminum

In March 2018, President Trump announced the administration would impose a 25 percent tariff on imported steel and a 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum.[5] 

If 2018 imports equal 2017 levels these tariffs could cost U.S. firms nearly $9 billion. For example, the value of imported steel totaled just over $29 billion in 2017. If the 25 percent tariff were levied on the same level of imported steel, the tax would total roughly $7.3 billion. Similarly, if a 10 percent tariff were applied to the $16.8 billion worth of aluminum imported in 2017, the tax would total nearly $1.7 billion.

In May 2019, President Trump announced that the U.S. was lifting tariffs on steel and aluminum on Canada and Mexico.[6] Lifting these tariffs on Mexico and Canada reduces tariff revenue by approximately $2.6 billion. While they have already done some economic harm, the tax increase resulting from all U.S. tariffs will be less than it would have been had these tariffs remained in place.

Tariffs on steel and aluminum currently account for $6.4 billion of the nearly $86 billion in tariff revenue.

Section 301, Chinese Products

The United States Trade Representative began an investigation of China in August 2017, which concluded in a March 2018 report that found China was conducting unfair trade practices. The same day, President Trump announced tariffs on up to $60 billion of imports. The administration soon published a list of about $50 billion worth of Chinese products to be subject to a new 25 percent tariff. Stage one of the tariffs began July 6, 2018, on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports, and stage two, the remaining $16 billion, went into effect August 23, 2018.[7] These tariffs amount to a $12.5 billion tax increase.

The administration imposed stage three of Section 301 tariffs in September 2018—10 percent on $200 billion worth of goods from China.[8] This stage was scheduled to increase to 25 percent beginning in January 2019, but the increase was delayed until it was allowed to go into effect in May 2019.[9]

The president has repeatedly threatened tariffs of varying rates on the remaining balance of imports from China. In August 2019, the administration announced plans to impose a new 10 percent tariff on approximately $300 billion worth of additional Chinese goods beginning on September 1, 2019. [10] The administration followed this announcement with a schedule change and certain exemptions—imposing stage 4a, a 10 percent tariff on $112 billion of imports starting September 1, 2019, and stage 4b, on $160 billion on December 15, 2019. [11] Then on August 23, the administration decided that stage 4 tariffs would be 15 percent rather than the previously announced 10 percent: stage 4a has taken effect, while stage 4b is scheduled to go into effect on December 15, 2019.[12]

Section 301 tariffs on China currently account for $79.3 billion of the nearly $86 billion in tariff revenues.

Model Results

According to the Tax Foundation model, the tariffs imposed so far by the Trump administration would reduce long-run GDP by 0.25 percent ($62.17 billion) and wages by 0.16 percent and eliminate 192,600 full-time equivalent jobs.

Table 2: Impact of Trump Administration Imposed Tariffs

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

  Section 232 – Steel and Aluminum Section 301 – China – Stage 1, 2, 3, and 4a Total Imposed Tariffs
Tariff Revenue (Billions of 2018 Dollars) $6.39 $79.30 $85.69
Long-run GDP -0.02% -0.23% -0.25%
GDP ($2018) -$4.63 -$57.54 -$62.17
Wages -0.01% -0.15% -0.16%
FTE Jobs -14,400 -178,300 -192,600

The 0.25 percent reduction in long-run GDP is about 15 percent of the total long-run impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which we estimated to raise GDP by 1.7 percent in the long run.

Tariffs Threatened by the United States

The Trump administration is currently deciding whether to place new Section 232 tariffs on imported automobiles and parts, as well as additional Section 301 tariffs on Chinese products. Tariffs on products from the European Union have also been scheduled to take effect after the United States won a World Trade Organization dispute. We estimate that these threatened tariffs would amount to a tax increase of nearly $111 billion.

Section 232, Automobiles and Parts

In May 2018, President Trump asked for tariffs of 25 percent on automobile imports, potentially including cars, trucks, and vehicle parts.[13] In 2017, the United States imported nearly $292.5 billion worth of vehicles for consumption, while paying about $3.4 billion in duties on those imports.[14] If we assume that import levels will remain the same and that the proposed tariff would apply to all goods in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule under the vehicle chapter (Chapter 87), in addition to the tariffs that are already levied, the new tariff would amount to a roughly $73.13 billion tax increase. It is likely that some vehicles or parts in Chapter 87 could be excluded from the tariff, while parts that may be listed in other chapters could be included, so the exact amount of the tax increase could be different.

Altogether, tariffs on automobiles and parts imports account for $73.13 billion of the almost $111 billion in potential tariffs currently threatened by the U.S.

Section 301, Chinese Products

On August 23, 2019, the Administration announced that the 25 percent tariff that had been levied on $250 billion in goods (stages one, two, and three) would be increased to 30 percent. This rate increase of 5 percentage points on $250 billion in Chinese goods was set to go into effect on October 1, 2019, after a comment period.[15] This increase had been delayed to October 15, 2019, [16] but has now been postponed again due to phase one of a tentative trade deal with China.[17]

Additionally, the Trump Administration could move ahead with stage 4b and tax an additional $160 billion in Chinese imports at a rate of 15 percent on December 15, 2019.[18] These goods are a part of the approximately $300 billion in goods that were originally to be taxed at a rate of 15 percent on September 1, 2019. However, the Trump Administration decided to delay this date for certain imports, such as, “cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing.”[19]

Overall, outstanding Section 301 tariffs threatened against China account for $36.5 billion of the almost $111 billion in threatened tariffs.

WTO Dispute, European Union

In October 2019, the United States won a nearly 15-year long World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute against the European Union. The WTO ruling authorizes the United States to impose up to $7.5 billion worth of tariffs on EU goods. Beginning October 18, tariffs of 10 percent will be applied to aircrafts and 25 percent on agricultural and other products.[20] 

Tariffs threatened on the European Union now account for about $1.31 billion of the almost $111 billion in threatened tariffs.

Model Results

The Tax Foundation model estimates that if the Trump administration imposes these additional tariffs, GDP would fall by an additional 0.32 percent ($80.65 billion), resulting in 0.22 percent lower wages and 250,100 fewer full-time equivalent jobs.

Table 3: Impact of Trump Administration Threatened Tariffs

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

  Section 301 – China – increase stages 1, 2, and 3 and impose stage 4a Section 232 – Autos WTO Dispute – European Union Total Threatened Tariffs
Tariff Revenue (Billions of 2018 Dollars) $36.50 $73.13 $1.31 $110.94
Long-run GDP -0.11% -0.21% 0.00% -0.32%
GDP (Billions of 2018 Dollars) -$26.53 -$53.16 -$0.95 -$80.65
Wages -0.07% -0.13% 0.00% -0.20%
FTE Jobs -82,300 -164,800 -3,000 -250,100

 Retaliatory Tariffs Imposed and Threatened

Several jurisdictions have proposed and imposed retaliatory tariffs against the United States.

Retaliation against Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs target just over $9 billion worth of American products,[21] for an estimated total tax of $2.11 billion.[22]

Table 4. Section 232 Steel and Aluminum Retaliation

Note: Mexico and Canada lifted their retaliatory tariffs in May 2019. Source: Congressional Research Service, “Escalating U.S. Tariffs: Affected Trade;” author calculations; tariff announcements

Jurisdiction U.S. Exports (billions, 2018) Tariff Rate Estimated Levy (billions)
European Union $2.893 10-25% $0.5
China $2.522 15-25% $1.0
Turkey $1.711 4-70% $0.2665
India $1.427 10-50% $0.241
Russia $0.430 25-40% $0.0876

China has responded to the United States’ Section 301 tariffs with several rounds of tariffs and proposed tariffs on more than $106 billion worth of U.S. goods,[23] for an estimated tax of nearly $23 billion.[24]

Table 5. Section 301 Retaliation

Source: Congressional Research Service, “Escalating U.S. Tariffs: Affected Trade;” author calculations

Stage U.S. Exports (billions, 2018) Tariff Rate Estimated Levy (billions)
Stage 1 $12.896 25% $3.224
Stage 2 $11.595 25% $2.899
Stage 3 $59.698 5-10%/5-25% $6.716
Stage 4a $25.463 5-10% $1.91
Stage 4b $41.790 5-10% $6.269
Reinstate Suspended Auto Tariffs $11.72 5-25% $1.758

We estimate that retaliatory tariffs stemming from Section 232 and Section 301 actions total to approximately $25 billion. However, it is important to note that these tariffs are not paid to the United States government, but to the governments of the countries which impose the tariffs.

Model Results

The Tax Foundation model estimates that U.S. GDP would fall another 0.07 percent ($17.8 billion) and cost an additional 55,300 full-time equivalent jobs if all retaliatory tariffs were imposed.

It is important to note, however, that unlike the tariffs that the United States could impose, which would raise some federal revenue, tariffs imposed by foreign jurisdictions would raise no revenue, but result in lower U.S. output.

Table 6: Impact of Retaliatory Tariffs

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

  Section 232 Retaliation Section 301 Retaliation Total
Tariff Revenue
(Billions of 2018 Dollars)
$0 $0 $0
Long-run GDP -0.01% -0.07% -0.07%
GDP (Billions of 2018 Dollars) -$1.51 -$16.32 -$17.83
Wages 0.00% -0.04% -0.04%
FTE Jobs -4,700 -50,600 -55,300

Conclusion

If additional tariffs and in-kind retaliatory actions continue to be taken, the harm caused to U.S. businesses and consumers would increase. The Trump administration would do well to not follow a path of imposing tariffs that could dampen the U.S. economic outlook.


Recent Updates

10/3/2019 update:In response to a World Trade Organization ruling, the Trump administration announced that it will levy tariffs of 25 percent and 10 percent on $7.5 billion worth of goods from the European Union.

9/12/2019 update: President Trump announced that the 5 percent increase (from 25 percent to 30 percent) in tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods will be delayed until October 15. The increase was originally scheduled for October 1. China has announced that it will temporarily exempt 16 U.S. products from tariffs on September 17, and that these exemptions will last for one year.

9/1/19 update: This weekend, the next round of the Trump Administration’s tariffs of 15 percent on approximately $300 billion worth of Chinese imports was scheduled to go into effect. Since the Trump Administration has delayed this tariff for a subset of this approximately $300 billion in goods until December 15, this 15 percent tariff hits about $112 billion in Chinese imports.

8/26/19 update: On August 23rd, the Trump Administration announced the 10 percent tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods would increase to 15 percent. This tariff would take effect in two stages, with some products impacted on September 1, 2019, and others impacted on December 15, 2019. Additionally, the Administration announced the 25 percent tariff on $250 billion would increase to 30 percent. This tariff will be effective October 1, 2019, after a comment period. 

8/23/19 update: China announced it will levy additional tariffs on $75 billion worth of United States imports, ranging from 5 percent to 10 percent, as well as resume tariffs on American automobiles and automobile parts which were suspended earlier in 2019. The tariffs will be imposed in two stages, beginning on September 1 and ending December 15. These tariffs are in retaliation for the U.S.’s 10 percent tariff on $300 million in Chinese goods announced in August, currently scheduled to take effect on December 15.

8/13/19 update: The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced that the 10 percent tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods would be delayed from September 1, 2019, until December 15, 2019. The USTR stated that it is in the process of removing certain products from a list of potential Chinese imports (established in May 2019) that would be subject to tariffs, based on national security, health, and other concerns. The USTR also noted that it determined certain products should be delayed until December 15, including cell phones, certain toys, and certain items of clothing. We will wait to update the tariff tracker until more details are provided on the products that will be excluded from the tariff

8/1/19 update: President Trump announced that a 10 percent tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods would be levied on September 1st. These threatened tariffs come amid trade talks between the nations. Earlier this year, President Trump threatened a 25 percent tariff on $325 billion worth of Chinese goods, in addition to tariffs already levied, but did not specify a date. Our estimate of the impact of threatened tariffs now reflects this reduced, but more specific, threat. 

6/10/19 update: President Trump said that the previously announced tariffs against Mexican products, scheduled to begin at a rate of 5 percent in June and gradually rise to 25 percent, were “indefinitely suspended.” Our estimates of the impact of tariffs threatened by the U.S. no longer account for these tariffs.

5/31/19 update: President Trump threatened to impose tariffs at a rate of 5 percent on all imports from Mexico, worth $346.5 billion, until, he said, illegal immigration across the southern border was stopped. The tariffs would begin on June 10, rising to 10 percent on July 1, 15 percent on August 1, 20 percent on September 1, and 25 percent on October 1.

5/22/19 update: The Trump administration has announced that the U.S. will lift steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico. In response, Canada and Mexico have announced that they will lift their retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. Lifting these tariffs will reduce the negative economic impact of tariffs on the U.S. 

5/10/19 update: President Trump announced that the U.S. will raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of imports from China from 10 percent to 25 percent, following through on previous threats. President Trump also threatened to impose an additional 25 percent tariff on $325 billion worth of imports from China.

09/18/2018 update: We’ve updated our estimate to include the recently announced 10 percent tariff on $200 billion worth of imports from China, shown in Table 1. We also updated our estimate to reflect the two additional threats of tariffs on imports from China, shown in Table 2: increasing the recently announced 10 percent tariff on $200 billion to 25 percent, and imposing an additional 10 percent tariff on the remaining $267 billion worth of imports from China.

08/29/2018 update: We separated our automobile tariff estimate to show auto imports from Canada. We also made slight adjustments to our estimates to correct for rounding.

08/16/2018 update: President Trump ordered a doubling of the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Turkey. Turkey responded by doubling its tariffs on 22 U.S. products.

08/08/2018 update:The Trump administration in June increased the amount of Chinese imports under consideration for further tariffs. The president has said the administration would impose a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods if China further retaliates, and if China retaliates against the 10 percent tariff on $200 billion, the administration would extend that tariff to another $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. This would amount to a $40 billion tax increase and bring the total of Chinese goods subject to U.S. import duties to $450 billion.[46]

On Thursday, July 5, President Trump again threatened additional tariffs on Chinese imports if China further retaliates to U.S. tariffs. However, this time, the threats increased from additional levies on $200 billion and another $200 billion of Chinese goods to $200 billion and $300 billion of Chinese goods. This would be a $10 billion tax increase above what was previously threatened.[47]

On Friday, July 20, President Trump confirmed plans that were hinted at on July 5 to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports, which would be approximately $500 billion worth of goods.[48] This has been modeled as a 10 percent tariff on $500 billion worth of imports, which amounts to a $50 billion tax increase.

On August 1, President Trump ordered administration officials to consider increasing the proposed 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports to a 25 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports.[49] Increasing the rate from 10 percent, as currently planned, to 25 percent, would be a $30 billion tax increase.

President Trump announced on August 7 that the administration is prepared to impose further tariffs on an additional $267 billion worth of imports from China.[51] If imposed at a 10 percent rate, this would be a $26.7 billion tax increase on American consumers.

Here’s a quick recap of all the enacted and threated tariffs on Chinese imports as of August 8, 2018. The U.S. has imposed a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion worth of products, imposed in two phases. The U.S. has threatened a now 25 percent tariff on an additional $200 billion. The president has also repeatedly threatened a third round of tariffs on China, this at 10 percent on $200 billion-$300 billion, effectively taxing Americans on all goods that they purchase from China. In total, the imposed tariffs amount to a $12.5 billion tax increase, while the threatened tariffs would amount to another $80 billion tax increase if all were imposed.

07/20/2018 update: On July 20, President Trump reaffirmed plans to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports (approximately $500 billion). Our estimate of total imposed and announced tariffs already includes this latest announcement. >

07/13/2018 update: Russia will begin placing tariffs on U.S. goods worth about $87.6 million. We also made slight adjustments to our estimates to correct for rounding.

07/06/2018 update: President Trump announced that the U.S. is ready to target an additional $200 billion in Chinese imports, and an additional $300 billion after that—an increase of $100 billion from previous threats.

6/28/2018 update: Turkey will begin placing tariffs on U.S. goods worth about $266.5 million.

Notes


[1] L. Alan Winters, “Trade Liberalisation and Economic Performance: An Overview,” The Economic Journal 114, no. 493 (February 2004).

[2]  Erica York, “Lessons from the 2002 Bush Steel Tariffs,” Tax Foundation, March 12, 2018, https://taxfoundation.org/lessons-2002-bush-steel-tariffs/.

[3] We do not include solar panel or washing machine tariffs in our analysis.

[4] While tariffs imposed will generate this revenue, it’s important to note that the federal government’s total revenue generated will be less than this. This is because tariffs function like an excise tax and reduce real income, and this reduction in real income will “offset” some of the revenue generated by the tariff. This reduction in real income reduces wages, which results in less individual income and payroll tax revenue. This reduction in real income also reduces profits for businesses (both corporate and pass-through businesses). This reduces corporate income tax revenues, as well as revenues from pass-through businesses under the individual income tax. For more on this effect, see “Who bears the burden of federal excise taxes?” in Tax Policy Center’s Briefing Book, https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/who-bears-burden-federal-excise-taxes.

[5] Scott A. Hodge, “New Tariff Plan Could Cost States $9 Billion,” Tax Foundation, March 6, 2018, https://taxfoundation.org/new-tariffs-could-cost-states-9-billion/.

[6] Jenny Leonard , Joe Deaux , and Josh Wingrove, “Trump Removes Steel, Aluminum Tariffs on Canada and Mexico,” Bloomberg, May 17, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-17/u-s-poised-to-remove-steel-aluminum-tariffs-on-canada-mexico.

[7] Bill Chappell, “Trump Hits China With Tariffs On $50 Billion Of Goods; China Says It Will Retaliate,” NPR, June 15, 2018, https://www.npr.org/2018/06/15/620259820/trump-levies-50-billion-in-tariffs-as-china-says-it-will-retaliate.

[8] “Statement By U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Section 301 Action,” Office of the United States Trade Representative, July 10, 2018, https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2018/july/statement-us-trade-representative.

[9] “Statement By U.S. Trade representative Robert Lighthizer on Section 301 Action,” Office of the United States Trade Representative, May 10, 2019, https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2019/may/statement-us-trade-representative.

[10] Yun Li, “Trump says US will impose 10% tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods starting Sept. 1,” CNBC, Aug. 1, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/trump-says-us-will-impose-10percent-tariffs-on-300-billion-of-chinese-goods-starting-september-1.html.

[11] “USTR Announces Next Steps on Proposed 10 Percent Tariff on Imports from China,” Office of the United States Trade Representative, Aug. 13, 2019, https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2019/august/ustr-announces-next-steps-proposed.

[12] Although the Trump Administration notes this 15 percent tariff will apply to approximately $300 billion in goods, others have estimated the total value of imported goods taxed (Under Section 301 List 4A and Section 301 List 4B) will be around $272 billion. For our estimates, we assume Section 301, List A consists of about $112 billion, while Section 301, List B, consists of about $160 billion. For more on these estimates, see Jacqueline Varas, “The Total Cost of Trump’s Tariffs,” American Action Forum, Aug. 14, 2019, https://www.americanactionforum.org/research/the-total-cost-of-trumps-new-tariffs/.

[13] William Mauldin, Timothy Puko, and Kate O’Keeffe, “Trump Administration Looks Into New Tariffs on Imported Vehicles,” The Wall Street Journal, May 23, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-weighs-new-tariffs-on-imported-vehicles-1527106235?mod=article_inline&mod=article_inline.

[14] United States International Trade Commission, “Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb.”

[15] “USTR Statement on Section 301 Tariff Action Regarding China,” Office of the United States Trade Representative, Aug. 23, 2019, https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2019/august/ustr-statement-section-301-tariff.

[16] Jenny Leonard and Shawn Donnan, “Trump Advisers Considering Interim China Deal to Delay Tariffs,” Bloomberg, Sept. 12, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/trump-advisers-considering-interim-china-deal-to-delay-tariffs.

[17] Shawn Donnan, “Trump’s China Deal Yields Plenty of Questions, and Critics,” Bloomberg, Oct. 11, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-11/trump-s-china-deal-yields-plenty-of-questions-and-critics.

[18] Though the Administration said “approximately” $300 billion in imports would be targeted, estimates show that the total amount of imports taxed would be closer to $272 billion—$112 billion for Section 301 List 4A and $160 billion for Section 301 List 4B. We use these numbers in our estimate. For more, see Jacqueline Varas, “The Total Cost of Trump’s Tariffs.”

[19]“USTR Announces Next Steps on Proposed 10 Percent Tariff on Imports from China,” Office of the United States Trade Representative.

[20] “U.S. Wins $7.5 Billion Award in Airbus Subsidies Case,” Office of the United States Trade Representative. To account for the fact that the tariffs are set to be imposed at two different rates (25 percent and 10 percent) we simply averaged the two rates and applied the average to the $7.5 billion worth of goods.

[21] Congressional Research Service, “Escalating U.S. Tariffs: Affected Trade,” Sept. 12, 2019, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IN10971.pdf.

[22] Tariff revenues were calculated for the EU and China by averaging the tariff rates and multiplying by the affected amount of U.S. goods. Tariff revenues for Turkey, India, and Russia were based on the following sources: Rishi Iyengar, “India Moves Ahead with Tariffs on US Goods,” CNNMoney, June 18, 2018, http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/17/news/economy/india-us-tariffs-steel-aluminum-wto/index.html and Reuters staff, “Turkey to Start Implementing Retaliatory Tariffs Against United States,” Reuters, June 21, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-turkey/turkey-to-start-implementing-retaliatory-tariffs-against-united-states-idUSKBN1JH0DY and Darya Korsunskaya and Andrey Ostroukh, “Russia Hikes Duties on U.S. Imports, Pledges More Retaliation,” Reuters, July 6, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-economy-duties/russia-raises-duties-on-u-s-goods-in-response-to-trade-restrictions-idUSKBN1JW1SE.

[23] Congressional Research Service, “Escalating U.S. Tariffs: Affected Trade,” Sept. 12, 2019, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IN10971.pdf.

[24] Tariff revenues were calculated by averaging the tariff rates and multiplying by the affected amount of U.S. goods.

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