May 31, 2019

Tracking the Economic Impact of U.S. Tariffs and Retaliatory Actions

9/12/2019 update: President Trump announced that the 5 percent increase (from 25 percent to 30 percent) in tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods will be delayed until October 15. The increase was originally scheduled for October 1. China has announced that it will temporarily exempt 16 U.S. products from tariffs on September 17, and that these exemptions will last for one year.  See a history of updates on tariffs here.


Estimates on this page will be updated weekly to reflect current U.S. and retaliatory tariffs and their impact on the economy. Click the links below to see each estimate.


Related Research

Introduction

The Trump administration has imposed and threatened several rounds of tariffs, and other countries have responded to these measures. Using the Tax Foundation Taxes and Growth Model, we analyze the effects of imposed, threatened, and retaliatory tariffs on the United States economy. Tariffs damage economic well-being, and lead to a net loss in production and jobs, and lower levels of income.

According to the Tax Foundation model, the tariffs planned and imposed so far by the Trump administration would reduce long-run GDP by 0.25 percent ($62.50 billion) and wages by 0.16 percent and eliminate 193,649 full-time equivalent jobs. If the Trump administration acts on threats to place new tariffs on automobiles and parts and additional tariffs on products from China, GDP would fall by an additional 0.32 percent ($79.70 billion), resulting in 0.20 percent lower wages and 247,114 fewer full-time equivalent jobs.

Other countries have announced intentions to impose tariffs on U.S. exports. If these tariffs are fully imposed, we estimate that U.S. GDP would fall another 0.10 percent ($25.56 billion) and cost an additional 79,215 full-time equivalent jobs.

If all tariffs announced thus far were fully imposed, U.S. GDP would fall by 0.67 percent ($167.75 billion) in the long run, effectively offsetting almost 40 percent of the long-run impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Wages would fall by 0.42 percent and employment would fall 519,978.

Tariffs Raise Prices and Reduce Economic Growth

Economists generally agree that free trade increases the level of economic output and income, and conversely, that trade barriers reduce economic output and income.[1] Historical evidence shows that tariffs raise prices and reduce available quantities of goods and services for U.S. businesses and consumers, which results in lower income, reduced employment, and lower economic output.[2]

Tariffs could reduce U.S. output through a few channels. One possibility is that a tariff may be passed on to producers and consumers in the form of higher prices. Tariffs can raise the cost of parts and materials, which would raise the price of goods using those inputs and reduce private sector output. This would result in lower incomes for both owners of capital and workers. Similarly, higher consumer prices due to tariffs would reduce the after-tax value of both labor and capital income. Because these higher prices would reduce the return to labor and capital, they would incentivize Americans to work and invest less, leading to lower output.

Alternatively, the U.S. dollar may appreciate in response to tariffs, offsetting the potential price increase on U.S. consumers. However, the more valuable dollar would make it more difficult for exporters to sell their goods on the global market, resulting in lower revenues for exporters. This would also result in lower U.S. output and incomes for both workers and owners of capital, reducing incentives for work and investment, and leading to a smaller economy.

Tariffs Imposed by The United States

The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on imported solar panels, washing machines, steel, aluminum, and various products imported from China. We estimate that these measures will amount to a total tax increase of $86.13 billion.[3]

Washing Machines

In January 2018, President Trump approved tariffs on washing machines and solar panels. The first 1.2 million washing machine units imported will be subject to a 20 percent tariff, and all subsequent imports subject to a 50 percent tariff.[4] In 2017, the United States imported just over 2.7 million washing machines valued at $402 million; assuming these levels remain the same, the tariff would amount to a $0.15 billion tax increase.[5] These tariffs on washing machines and solar panels currently account for $0.15 billion of the $86.13 billion in tariffs imposed.

Steel and Aluminum

Tariffs on steel and aluminum currently account for approximately $6.7 billion of the $86.13 billion in tariff revenue. In March 2018, President Trump announced the administration would impose a 25 percent tariff on imported steel and a 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum.[6] If 2018 imports equal 2017 levels these tariffs could cost U.S. firms nearly $9 billion. For example, the value of imported steel totaled just over $29 billion in 2017. If the 25 percent tariff were levied on the same level of imported steel, the tax would total roughly $7.3 billion. Similarly, if a 10 percent tariff were applied to the $16.8 billion worth of aluminum imported in 2017, the tax would total nearly $1.7 billion.

In August of 2018, President Trump called for the tariffs applying to steel and aluminum imports from Turkey to be doubled to 50 percent and 20 percent, respectively.[7] In 2017, the United States imported $1.3 billion worth of steel and $0.1 billion worth of aluminum from Turkey; doubling the tariffs amounts to a tax increase of roughly $0.335 billion on top of current tariffs.

In May 2019, President Trump announced that the U.S. was lifting tariffs on steel and aluminum on Canada and Mexico.[8] Lifting these tariffs on Mexico and Canada reduces tariff revenue by approximately $2.6 billion. While they have already done some economic harm, the tax increase resulting from all U.S. tariffs will be less than it would have been had these tariffs remained in place.

Chinese Products

After tit-for-tat threats between China and the United States regarding tariffs and trade practices, President Trump settled on imposing a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. The first phase of the tariffs began July 6, 2018, on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports, and the remaining $16 billion went into effect August 23, 2018.[9] These tariffs amount to a $12.5 billion tax increase. The administration also imposed a 10 percent tariff on an additional $200 billion worth of goods from China in September 2018,[10]  but subsequently increased this tariff rate on $200 billion worth of goods to 25 percent in May 2019.[11]

In addition to these tariffs, in August 2019, President Trump threatened to impose a tariff of 10 percent on approximately $300 billion worth of Chinese goods on September 1, 2019.[12]  The Office of the United States Trade Representative announced on August 13, 2019, that some products that would have been hit by this round of tariffs would be exempt for national security and health reasons, that the tariff’s implementation date would be delayed for some other goods until December 15, 2019, and that the tariff would be imposed for the rest of the products on September 1.[13] On August 23rd, the Administration announced that this tariff would be increased from 10 percent to 15 percent. The first tranche of these tariffs was implemented on September 1, at a 15 percent rate on about $112 billion worth of goods. The remaining goods are set to be taxed on December 15, 2019.[14]

Tariffs on China currently account for $79.3 billion of the $86.13 billion in tariff revenues.

Model Results

According to the Tax Foundation model, the tariffs imposed so far by the Trump administration would reduce long-run GDP by 0.25 percent ($62.50 billion) and wages by 0.16 percent and eliminate 193,649 full-time equivalent jobs.

Table 1: Impact of Trump Administration Imposed Tariffs

Source: Tax Foundation Taxes and Growth Model, April 2018

Tariff Revenue (Billions of 2018 Dollars)

$86.13

Long-run GDP

-0.25%

GDP (Billions of 2018 Dollars)

-$62.50

Wages

-0.16%

FTE Jobs

-193,649

Tariffs Threatened by the United States

The Trump administration is currently investigating putting tariffs on imported automobiles and parts, as well as additional tariffs on Chinese products. We estimate that these threatened tariffs would amount to a tax increase of roughly $109.63 billion.

Automobiles and Parts

In May 2018, President Trump asked for tariffs of 25 percent on automobile imports, potentially including cars, trucks, and vehicle parts.[15] In 2017, the United States imported nearly $292.5 billion worth of vehicles for consumption, while paying about $3.4 billion in duties on those imports.[16] If we assume that import levels will remain the same and that the proposed tariff would apply to all goods in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule under the vehicle chapter (Chapter 87), in addition to the tariffs that are already levied, the new tariff would amount to a roughly $73.13 billion tax increase. It is likely that some vehicles or parts in Chapter 87 could be excluded from the tariff, while parts that may be listed in other chapters could be included, so the exact amount of the tax increase could be different.

More recently, the Trump administration has mentioned the possibility of singling out auto imports from Canada for tariffs.[17] In 2017, the U.S. imported $55.6 billion of Chapter 87 goods from Canada, or about 19 percent of the value of imports for consumption under the vehicle chapter. Placing a 25 percent tariff on Chapter 87 auto imports from Canada alone would amount to a $13.9 billion tax.[18]

Altogether, tariffs on automobiles and parts imports account for $73.13 billion of the $109.63 billion in potential tariffs currently threatened by the U.S.

Chinese Products

On August 23, 2019, the Administration announced that the 25 percent tariff that had been levied on $250 billion in goods would be increased to 30 percent. This rate increase of 5 percent on $250 billion in Chinese goods was set to go into effect on October 1, 2019, after a comment period.[19] This increase has since been delayed to October 15.[20]

Additionally, the Trump Administration plans to tax an additional $160 billion in Chinese imports at a rate of 15 percent on December 15.[21] These goods are a part of the approximately $300 billion in goods that were originally to be taxed at a rate of 15 percent on September 1, 2019. However, the Trump Administration decided to delay this date for certain imports, such as, “cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing.”[22]

Overall, tariffs threatened against China account for $36.5 billion of the total $109.63 billion in threatened tariffs.

Model Results

The Tax Foundation model estimates that if the Trump administration imposes additional tariffs on automobiles and parts as well as additional Chinese tariffs, GDP would fall by an additional 0.32 percent ($79.70 billion), resulting in 0.20 percent lower wages and 247,114 fewer full-time equivalent jobs.

Table 2: Impact of Trump Administration Threatened Tariffs

Source: Tax Foundation Taxes and Growth Model, April 2018

Tariff Revenue (Billions of 2018 Dollars)

$109.63

Long-run GDP

-0.32%

GDP (Billions of 2018 Dollars)

-$79.70

Wages

-0.20%

FTE Jobs

-247,114

Retaliatory Tariffs Imposed and Threatened

Several countries have announced plans to impose tariffs in response to the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum. The tariffs target American products such as denim, bourbon, whiskey, and agricultural commodities, for an estimated total tax of $35.68 billion. More countries are considering imposing retaliatory tariffs on the United States but have not announced details; this includes Japan.[23]

China

In response to the tariffs on steel and aluminum, China announced tariffs on about $3 billion worth of American products, including a 15 percent tariff on 120 products, such as wine, nuts, and steel pipes, and a 25 percent tariff on 8 other products such as recycled aluminum and pork.[24] These tariffs on various products amount to $600 million. And in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on $50 billion worth of imports, China responded in kind, raising tariffs on U.S. products by $12.5 billion.

After President Trump ordered his administration to increase the proposed threat of 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion to 25 percent, China announced it would place tariffs on an additional $60 billion worth of U.S. goods at a rate of up to 25 percent, which would increase China’s tariff revenue by an additional $15 billion.[25]

In retaliation for the Trump Administration’s threatened 10 percent tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods announced in August 2019,[26] China announced it will impose tariffs ranging from 5 percent to 10 percent on $75 billion worth of U.S. goods. These tariffs would be levied in stages, first on September 1 and then on December 15. China also announced it would re-impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. automobiles, and a 5 percent tariff on U.S. auto parts.[27] China had temporarily suspended these tariffs on automobiles and auto parts in late 2018.[28] This new round of tariffs on $75 billion on U.S. goods is worth about $5.6 billion.[29]

Currently, China accounts for roughly $33.73 billion of the current $35.68 billion in tariffs on the U.S. threatened by other nations. However, China has exempted a limited set of 16 products from tariffs, beginning September 17th. These products will be exempt for one year.[30]

Mexico

In response to the tariffs on steel and aluminum, Mexico announced a tariff of 25 percent on products like cheese, steel, and Tennessee whiskey, and a 20 percent tariff on goods like pork, apples, and potatoes. The value of imports subject to these tariffs is $3 billion.[31]

In May 2019, in response to the U.S. lifting tariffs on Mexico, Mexico announced that it was lifting its own retaliatory tariffs on the U.S.[32], reducing tariffs on the United States by $660 million. This $660 million is no longer included in the $35.68 billion in tariffs imposed on the U.S. by other nations.  

Canada

Canada published two tables of goods to be subject to a 25 percent tariff and 10 percent tariff, representing the value of Canadian goods subject to the steel and aluminum tariffs, or about $12.8 billion.[33]

In May 2019, in response to the U.S. lifting tariffs on Canada, Canada announced that it was lifting its own retaliatory tariffs on the U.S.,[34] reducing Canadian tariff revenue by approximately $2.1 billion. This $2.1 billion is no longer included in the $35.68 billion in tariffs imposed on the U.S. by other nations.

European Union

The European Union plans to place a 25 percent tariff on about 200 American products, including denim, bourbon, motorcycles, and peanut butter.[35] The total value of the goods subject to the tariffs is $3.3 billion, resulting in about $830 million in tariff revenue from the U.S. This is included in the $35.68 billion of tariffs placed on the U.S. by other nations. 

India

India plans to increase its tariffs on 30 U.S. products in order to raise $241 million in revenue.[36] The increased tariffs will target almonds, walnuts, apples, and some chemical and metal products. These tariffs will generate about $240 million in revenue from U.S. imports, which is counted in the $35.68 billion of tariffs placed on the U.S. by other countries.

Turkey

Turkey announced its decision to begin implementing tariffs on U.S. goods on June 21, 2018. The tariffs would cover goods such as coal, paper, walnuts and almonds, tobacco, whiskey, automobiles, cosmetics, machinery equipment, and petrochemical products. The burden of the tariffs will be commensurate to the U.S. imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, or about $266.5 million.[37]

Turkey has also announced plans to double tariffs on 22 U.S. products including cars, alcohol, coal, and tobacco.[38] They expect to raise $533 million in additional revenue due to these increased tariffs.[39] This means tariffs from Turkey account for roughly $800 million of the $35.68 billion in tariff revenue raised from the U.S. by other nations.

Russia

Russia announced its decision to begin implementing tariffs on U.S. goods such as fiber optics and different types of equipment at rates of 25 to 40 percent.[40] The tariffs are intended to raise $87.6 million, and Russia has warned it could impose further tariffs, up to $537.6 million, commensurate to the effect on Russia of U.S.-imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum. We include $87.6 million in the $35.68 billion of tariff revenue generated from tariffs on U.S. imports.

Model Results

If these foreign jurisdictions imposed the tariffs that they announced, the Tax Foundation model estimates that U.S. GDP would fall another 0.10 percent ($25.56 billion) and cost an additional 79,215 full-time equivalent jobs.

It is important to note, however, that unlike the tariffs that the United States could impose, which would raise some federal revenue, tariffs imposed by foreign jurisdictions would raise no revenue, but result in lower U.S. output.

Table 3: Impact of Retaliatory Tariffs

Tariff Revenue (Billions of 2018 Dollars)

$0

Long-run GDP

-0.10%

GDP (Billions of 2018 Dollars)

-$25.56

Wages

-0.06%

FTE Jobs

-79,215

Total Impact of Imposed and Announced Tariffs

If all tariffs announced thus far were fully imposed by the United States and foreign jurisdictions, U.S. GDP would fall by 0.67 percent ($167.75 billion) in the long run. Wages would fall by 0.42 percent and employment would fall by 519,978.

The 0.67 percent reduction in long-run GDP is about 40 percent of the total long-run impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which we estimated to raise GDP by 1.7 percent in the long run.

Table 4: Total Impact of Imposed and Announced Tariffs

Source: Tax Foundation Taxes and Growth Model, April 2018

Tariff Revenue (Billions of 2018 Dollars)

$195.76

Long-run GDP

-0.67%

GDP (Billions of 2018 Dollars)

-$167.75

Wages

-0.42%

FTE Jobs

-519,978

 Conclusion

If additional tariffs and in-kind retaliatory actions continue to be taken, the harm caused to U.S. businesses and consumers would increase. The Trump administration would do well to not follow a path of imposing tariffs that could dampen the U.S. economic outlook.

 Recent Updates

9/1/19 update: This weekend, the next round of the Trump Administration’s tariffs of 15 percent on approximately $300 billion worth of Chinese imports was scheduled to go into effect. Since the Trump Administration has delayed this tariff for a subset of this approximately $300 billion in goods until December 15, this 15 percent tariff hits about $112 billion in Chinese imports.

8/26/19 update: On August 23rd, the Trump Administration announced the 10 percent tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods would increase to 15 percent. This tariff would take effect in two stages, with some products impacted on September 1, 2019, and others impacted on December 15, 2019. Additionally, the Administration announced the 25 percent tariff on $250 billion would increase to 30 percent. This tariff will be effective October 1, 2019, after a comment period. 

8/23/19 update: China announced it will levy additional tariffs on $75 billion worth of United States imports, ranging from 5 percent to 10 percent, as well as resume tariffs on American automobiles and automobile parts which were suspended earlier in 2019. The tariffs will be imposed in two stages, beginning on September 1 and ending December 15. These tariffs are in retaliation for the U.S.’s 10 percent tariff on $300 million in Chinese goods announced in August, currently scheduled to take effect on December 15.

8/13/19 update: The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced that the 10 percent tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods would be delayed from September 1, 2019, until December 15, 2019. The USTR stated that it is in the process of removing certain products from a list of potential Chinese imports (established in May 2019) that would be subject to tariffs, based on national security, health, and other concerns. The USTR also noted that it determined certain products should be delayed until December 15, including cell phones, certain toys, and certain items of clothing. We will wait to update the tariff tracker until more details are provided on the products that will be excluded from the tariff

8/1/19 update: President Trump announced that a 10 percent tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods would be levied on September 1st. These threatened tariffs come amid trade talks between the nations. Earlier this year, President Trump threatened a 25 percent tariff on $325 billion worth of Chinese goods, in addition to tariffs already levied, but did not specify a date. Our estimate of the impact of threatened tariffs now reflects this reduced, but more specific, threat. 

6/10/19 update: President Trump said that the previously announced tariffs against Mexican products, scheduled to begin at a rate of 5 percent in June and gradually rise to 25 percent, were “indefinitely suspended.” Our estimates of the impact of tariffs threatened by the U.S. no longer account for these tariffs.

5/31/19 update: President Trump threatened to impose tariffs at a rate of 5 percent on all imports from Mexico, worth $346.5 billion, until, he said, illegal immigration across the southern border was stopped. The tariffs would begin on June 10, rising to 10 percent on July 1, 15 percent on August 1, 20 percent on September 1, and 25 percent on October 1.

5/22/19 update: The Trump administration has announced that the U.S. will lift steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico. In response, Canada and Mexico have announced that they will lift their retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. Lifting these tariffs will reduce the negative economic impact of tariffs on the U.S. See a history of updates here.

5/10/19 update: President Trump announced that the U.S. will raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of imports from China from 10 percent to 25 percent, following through on previous threats. President Trump also threatened to impose an additional 25 percent tariff on $325 billion worth of imports from China.

09/18/2018 update: We’ve updated our estimate to include the recently announced 10 percent tariff on $200 billion worth of imports from China, shown in Table 1. We also updated our estimate to reflect the two additional threats of tariffs on imports from China, shown in Table 2: increasing the recently announced 10 percent tariff on $200 billion to 25 percent, and imposing an additional 10 percent tariff on the remaining $267 billion worth of imports from China.

08/29/2018 update: We separated our automobile tariff estimate to show auto imports from Canada. We also made slight adjustments to our estimates to correct for rounding.

08/16/2018 update: President Trump ordered a doubling of the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Turkey. Turkey responded by doubling its tariffs on 22 U.S. products.

08/08/2018 update:The Trump administration in June increased the amount of Chinese imports under consideration for further tariffs. The president has said the administration would impose a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods if China further retaliates, and if China retaliates against the 10 percent tariff on $200 billion, the administration would extend that tariff to another $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. This would amount to a $40 billion tax increase and bring the total of Chinese goods subject to U.S. import duties to $450 billion.[46]

On Thursday, July 5, President Trump again threatened additional tariffs on Chinese imports if China further retaliates to U.S. tariffs. However, this time, the threats increased from additional levies on $200 billion and another $200 billion of Chinese goods to $200 billion and $300 billion of Chinese goods. This would be a $10 billion tax increase above what was previously threatened.[47]

On Friday, July 20, President Trump confirmed plans that were hinted at on July 5 to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports, which would be approximately $500 billion worth of goods.[48] This has been modeled as a 10 percent tariff on $500 billion worth of imports, which amounts to a $50 billion tax increase.

On August 1, President Trump ordered administration officials to consider increasing the proposed 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports to a 25 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports.[49] Increasing the rate from 10 percent, as currently planned, to 25 percent, would be a $30 billion tax increase.

President Trump announced on August 7 that the administration is prepared to impose further tariffs on an additional $267 billion worth of imports from China.[51] If imposed at a 10 percent rate, this would be a $26.7 billion tax increase on American consumers.

Here’s a quick recap of all the enacted and threated tariffs on Chinese imports as of August 8, 2018. The U.S. has imposed a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion worth of products, imposed in two phases. The U.S. has threatened a now 25 percent tariff on an additional $200 billion. The president has also repeatedly threatened a third round of tariffs on China, this at 10 percent on $200 billion-$300 billion, effectively taxing Americans on all goods that they purchase from China. In total, the imposed tariffs amount to a $12.5 billion tax increase, while the threatened tariffs would amount to another $80 billion tax increase if all were imposed.

07/20/2018 update: On July 20, President Trump reaffirmed plans to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports (approximately $500 billion). Our estimate of total imposed and announced tariffs already includes this latest announcement. >

07/13/2018 update: Russia will begin placing tariffs on U.S. goods worth about $87.6 million. We also made slight adjustments to our estimates to correct for rounding.

07/06/2018 update: President Trump announced that the U.S. is ready to target an additional $200 billion in Chinese imports, and an additional $300 billion after that—an increase of $100 billion from previous threats.

6/28/2018 update: Turkey will begin placing tariffs on U.S. goods worth about $266.5 million.

Notes:


[1] L. Alan Winters, “Trade Liberalisation and Economic Performance: An Overview,” The Economic Journal 114, no. 493 (February 2004).

[2]  Erica York, “Lessons from the 2002 Bush Steel Tariffs,” Tax Foundation, March 12, 2018, https://taxfoundation.org/lessons-2002-bush-steel-tariffs/.

[3] While tariffs imposed will generate this revenue, it’s important to note that the federal government’s total revenue generated will be less than this. This is because tariffs function like an excise tax and reduce real income, and this reduction in real income will “offset” some of the revenue generated by the tariff. This reduction in real income reduces wages, which results in less individual income and payroll tax revenue. This reduction in real income also reduces profits for businesses (both corporate and pass-through businesses). This reduces corporate income tax revenues, as well as revenues from pass-through businesses under the individual income tax. For more on this effect, see “Who bears the burden of federal excise taxes?” in Tax Policy Center’s Briefing Book, https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/who-bears-burden-federal-excise-taxes.

[4] Erica York, “President Trump Approves Tariffs on Washing Machines and Solar Cells,” Tax Foundation, Jan. 30, 2018, https://taxfoundation.org/trump-tariffs-washing-machines-solar-cells/.

[5] United States International Trade Commission, “Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb,” https://dataweb.usitc.gov/. Note we did not model the effects of tariffs on solar panels or washer parts.

[6] Scott A. Hodge, “New Tariff Plan Could Cost States $9 Billion,” Tax Foundation, March 6, 2018, https://taxfoundation.org/new-tariffs-could-cost-states-9-billion/.

[7] Terrence Dopp, “Trump Targets a Doubling of Turkey Metals Tariffs as Ties Worsen,” Bloomberg, Aug. 10, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-10/trump-authorizes-doubling-of-tariffs-on-turkey-s-steel-aluminum/.

[8] Jenny Leonard , Joe Deaux , and Josh Wingrove, “Trump Removes Steel, Aluminum Tariffs on Canada and Mexico,” Bloomberg, May 17, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-17/u-s-poised-to-remove-steel-aluminum-tariffs-on-canada-mexico.

[9] Bill Chappell, “Trump Hits China With Tariffs On $50 Billion Of Goods; China Says It Will Retaliate,” NPR, June 15, 2018, https://www.npr.org/2018/06/15/620259820/trump-levies-50-billion-in-tariffs-as-china-says-it-will-retaliate.

[10] “Statement By U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Section 301 Action,” Office of the United States Trade Representative, July 10, 2018, https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2018/july/statement-us-trade-representative.

[11] “Statement By U.S. Trade representative Robert Lighthizer on Section 301 Action,” Office of the United States Trade Representative, May 10, 2019, https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2019/may/statement-us-trade-representative.

[12] Yun Li, “Trump says US will impose 10% tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods starting Sept. 1,” CNBC, Aug. 1, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/trump-says-us-will-impose-10percent-tariffs-on-300-billion-of-chinese-goods-starting-september-1.html.

[13] “USTR Announces Next Steps on Proposed 10 Percent Tariff on Imports from China,” Office of the United States Trade Representative, Aug. 13, 2019, https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2019/august/ustr-announces-next-steps-proposed.

[14] Although the Trump Administration notes this 15 percent tariff will apply to approximately $300 billion in goods, others have estimated the total value of imported goods taxed (Under Section 301 List 4A and Section 301 List 4B) will be around $272 billion. For our estimates, we assume Section 301, List A consists of about $112 billion, while Section 301, List B, consists of about $160 billion. For more on these estimates, see Jacqueline Varas, “The Total Cost of Trump’s Tariffs,” American Action Forum, Aug. 14, 2019, https://www.americanactionforum.org/research/the-total-cost-of-trumps-new-tariffs/.

[15] William Mauldin, Timothy Puko, and Kate O’Keeffe, “Trump Administration Looks Into New Tariffs on Imported Vehicles,” The Wall Street Journal, May 23, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-weighs-new-tariffs-on-imported-vehicles-1527106235?mod=article_inline&mod=article_inline.

[16] United States International Trade Commission, “Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb.”

[17] Liz Moyer, “White House advisor Kudlow says Canada could face auto tariffs if it doesn’t agree to ‘fair deal,’” CNBC, Aug. 27, 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/27/kudlow-on-canada-if-we-cant-reach-a-fair-deal-we-might-have-to-resort-to-auto-tariffs.html.

[18] United States International Trade Commission, “Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb.”

[19] “USTR Statement on Section 301 Tariff Action Regarding China,” Office of the United States Trade Representative, Aug. 23, 2019, https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2019/august/ustr-statement-section-301-tariff.

[20] Jenny Leonard and Shawn Donnan, “Trump Advisers Considering Interim China Deal to Delay Tariffs,” Bloomberg, Sept. 12, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/trump-advisers-considering-interim-china-deal-to-delay-tariffs.

[21] Though the Administration said “approximately” $300 billion in imports would be targeted, estimates show that the total amount of imports taxed would be closer to $272 billion– $112 billion for Section 301 List 4A and $160 billion for Section 301 List 4B. We use these numbers in our estimate. For more, see Jacqueline Varas, “The Total Cost of Trump’s Tariffs.”

[22]“USTR Announces Next Steps on Proposed 10 Percent Tariff on Imports from China,” Office of the United States Trade Representative.

[23] Motoko Rich, “Now Even Japan Is Pushing Back Against Trump’s Tariffs,” The New York Times, May 18, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/18/world/asia/japan-trump-tariffs-wto-.html.

[24] Chris Buckley, “China Slaps Tariffs on 128 U.S. Products, Including Wine, Pork and Pipes,” The New York Times, April 1, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/01/world/asia/china-tariffs-united-states.html.

[25] Keith Bradsher and Cao Li, “China Threatens New Tariffs on $60 Billion of U.S. Goods,” The New York Times, Aug. 3, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/03/business/china-us-trade-tariffs.html.

[26] Yun Li, Trump says US will impose 10% tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods starting Sept. 1,” CNBC, Aug. 1, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/trump-says-us-will-impose-10percent-tariffs-on-300-billion-of-chinese-goods-starting-september-1.html.

[27]Yun Li, “China will retaliate with tariffs on $75 billion more of US goods and resume auto tariffs,” CNBC, Aug. 23, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/china-to-retaliate-with-new-tariffs-on-another-75-billion-worth-of-us-goods.html.

[28] Orange Wang, Daniel Ren, Zhou Xin, “China rolling back tariffs on US car imports for three months, in likely boon to American carmaker Tesla as Trump-Xi talks bear fruit,” South China Morning Post, “Dec. 14, 2018, https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2178081/china-roll-back-extra-tariff-us-car-imports-three-months.

[29] To account for the fact that tariffs are being imposed at two different rates—5 percent and 10 percent—we simply averaged the two rates, or 7.5 percent, and applied it to the $75 billion in U.S. goods. Tariffs that have been re-imposed on automobiles and auto parts are already accounted for from previous estimates.

[30] Alexandra Stevenson, “China Lifts Tariffs on Some U.S. Goods in Modest Olive Branch to Trump,” The New York Times, Sept. 11, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/11/business/china-drops-tariffs.html?module=inline. Our estimate of the effect of retaliatory tariffs does not currently include this exemption. This is partly because of uncertainty in calculating this value and in what will happen with future trade negotiations. Some have estimated the value of these products to be between $700 million and $1.9 billion. This would be a small reduction in the overall base of U.S. goods taxed by China. However, by not including this exemption, our estimates slightly overestimate the effect of retaliatory tariffs. See economist Chad P. Brown, “Today China announced it was excluding some US exports from its retaliation. Its TARIFF CUTS go into effect Sept 17,” Twitter, Sept. 11, 2019, https://twitter.com/ChadBown/status/1171886482782588928.

[31] Chris Isidore, “Mexico imposes tariffs on $3 billion worth of US exports,” CNNMoney, June 6, 2018, http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/06/news/economy/mexico-us-tariffs-retaliation/index.html.

[32] Sylvan Lane, “Canada, Mexico Lift Tariffs on US Goods After Trump Scraps Steel, Aluminum Levies,” The Hill, May 20, 2019, https://thehill.com/policy/finance/444581-canada-mexico-lift-tariffs-on-us-goods-after-trump-scraps-steel-aluminum.

[33] Department of Finance Canada, “Notice of Intent to Impose Countermeasures Action Against the United States in Response to Tariffs on Canadian Steel and Aluminum Products,” May 31, 2018, https://www.fin.gc.ca/activty/consult/cacsap-cmpcaa-eng.asp.

[34] Ibid.

[35] Alanna Petroff, “Here’s How Europe is Punishing the US for Steel Tariffs,” CNNMoney, June 1, 2018, http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/01/news/economy/trade-war-tariffs-eu-canada-mexico-response/index.html?iid=EL.

[36] Rishi Iyengar, “India Moves Ahead with Tariffs on US Goods,” CNNMoney, June 18, 2018, http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/17/news/economy/india-us-tariffs-steel-aluminum-wto/index.html.

[37] Reuters staff, “Turkey to Start Implementing Retaliatory Tariffs Against United States,” Reuters, June 21, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-turkey/turkey-to-start-implementing-retaliatory-tariffs-against-united-states-idUSKBN1JH0DY.

[38] Daren Butler and Humeyra Pamuk, “Turkey Doubles Tariffs on Some U.S. imports; Lira Rallies,” Reuters, Aug. 15, 2018,  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-usa-tariffs/turkey-raises-tariffs-on-some-u-s-imports-including-cars-alcohol-official-gazette-idUSKBN1L00BI.

[39] World Bulletin/News Desk, “Turkey Vows to Protect Firms From ‘Unfair’ US Treatment,” World Bulletin, Aug. 15, 2018, http://www.worldbulletin.net/todays-news/205007/turkey-vows-to-protect-firms-from-unfair-us-treatment.

[40] Darya Korsunskaya and Andrey Ostroukh, “Russia Hikes Duties on U.S. Imports, Pledges More Retaliation,” Reuters, July 6, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-economy-duties/russia-raises-duties-on-u-s-goods-in-response-to-trade-restrictions-idUSKBN1JW1SE.

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