Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The Trump tariffs amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,200 in 2025 and $1,600 in 2026.
45 min read
Expert
Alex Durante
Senior Economist
Alex Durante is an Senior Economist at the Tax Foundation, working on federal tax policy and model development. He previously served as a Taxes and Growth Fellow at the Tax Foundation from 2015 to 2016.
Alex worked as a research assistant for three years at the Federal Reserve Board on a household survey, where he coauthored reports on the “Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households.” From 2019 through 2020, he served as a staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers, working primarily on trade policy and contributing economic analysis to the “Economic Report to the President.” He holds a BS in Economics from The College of New Jersey and an MS in Applied Economics from Johns Hopkins University.
Originally from New Jersey, Alex currently lives in Washington, D.C. His hobbies include tennis, boxing and mixed martial arts, and playing bass and drums.
Latest Work
Who Has the Authority to Levy Tariffs?
The US Supreme Court heard oral arguments on November 5 to determine whether the president’s emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) include the power to impose tariffs.
5 min read
Trump’s Tariffs Head to the Supreme Court
In this episode of The Deduction, we unpack Trump’s tariffs as they head to the Supreme Court. We break down scenarios if the Court upholds or strikes the tariffs, who really pays, and how Congress might respond—your concise guide to tariffs and the Supreme Court.
What You Should Know About the Trump Tariffs Being Challenged at the Supreme Court
The Supreme Court is deciding a case over whether the President can impose sweeping tax increases on imported goods. It’s a multi-trillion-dollar question with enormous implications for the US economy, taxpayers, and limitations on emergency powers.
4 min read
Trump Tariffs Are Raising Prices for Consumers, Latest Evidence Shows
Several goods have experienced notably large price increases, including apparel, coffee and tea, cameras, and furniture.
4 min read
2026 Tax Brackets
Explore the IRS inflation-adjusted 2026 tax brackets, for which taxpayers will file tax returns in early 2027.
5 min read
Federal Revenue and Distributional Impacts of Limiting the Tax Exclusion for Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance Premiums
Policymakers are considering ways to extend the enhancements made to Affordable Care Act premium tax credits that expire at the end of the year, which could cost $350 billion over the next decade. Any expansion of the credits should be offset by reducing other healthcare subsidies or preferences in the tax code, the largest of which is the exclusion for employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) premiums, estimated to cost more than $5 trillion over the next decade due to reduced income and payroll tax revenue.
10 min read
Financial Ruin? Why Losing IEEPA Tariff Revenue Won’t Change the Long-Term US Fiscal Trajectory
The US fiscal trajectory is on an unsustainable path over the next 35 years, regardless of whether the IEEPA tariffs are struck down or maintained.
3 min read
Trump Pharma Tariffs Would Raise Drug Prices for Americans
President Trump has recently floated the idea of imposing tariffs of up to 250 percent on pharmaceuticals, with the intention of shifting pharmaceutical production to the US. These tariffs would not only drive drug prices higher but could also lead to shortages and reduce long-run drug innovation.
3 min read
The Best Way to Provide Relief Is to Repeal Tariffs, Not Offer Tariff Rebate Checks
As US businesses and consumers face higher costs of goods due to the Trump tariffs, Senator Hawley (R-MO) has introduced legislation to rebate tariff revenue to provide financial relief. The proposal takes a similar approach to the stimulus checks issued during the COVID-19 pandemic.
4 min read
Trump Tariffs Will Raise the Cost of Food for Americans
The Trump tariffs will likely raise the cost of food for Americans, particularly for liqueurs and spirits, baked goods, coffee, fish, and beer.
4 min read
Trump Tariffs Threaten to Offset Much of the “Big Beautiful Bill” Tax Cuts
Our analysis finds that the Trump tariffs threaten to offset much of the economic benefits of the new tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them.
3 min read
One Big Beautiful Bill Act Tax Policies: Details and Analysis
We estimate the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would increase long-run GDP by 1.2 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $5 trillion over the next decade on a conventional basis.
11 min read
How Does the Additional Senior Deduction Compare to No Tax on Social Security?
The increased senior deduction with the phaseout would deliver a larger tax cut to lower-middle- and middle-income taxpayers compared to exempting all Social Security benefits from income taxation and would not weaken the trust funds as much. But given the temporary nature of the policy, it would increase the deficit-impact of the reconciliation bills without boosting long-run economic growth.
3 min read
Breaking Down the Senior Deduction in the One, Big, Beautiful Bill
The House-passed reconciliation bill leaves out Trump’s promise to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, opting instead to expand the standard deduction for seniors.
“One Big Beautiful Bill Act” House GOP Tax Plan: Details and Analysis
Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions increase long-run GDP by 0.8 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
9 min read
What Happens If Social Security Runs Out in 2035?
What happens when the country’s most important retirement program runs out of money? Social Security faces a funding crisis by 2035. We unpack how the system works, why it’s in trouble, and what fixes could keep it afloat.
How Much Revenue Can Tariffs Really Raise for the Federal Government?
Could tariffs, a form of government finance heavily relied upon in the 18th and 19th centuries, function as a major source of revenue for a modern, developed economy in the 21st century?
16 min read
The Role of LIFO in the Tax Code
While LIFO is rarely the main focus of the overall tax policy debate, it is a sound structural piece of the tax code. LIFO comes close to matching the economic ideal while still remaining true to the accounting principle.
15 min read
Who Pays Tariffs? Americans Will Bear the Costs of the Next Trade War
Rather than hurting foreign exporters, the economic evidence shows American firms and consumers were hardest hit by tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first-term.
5 min read