Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
56 min read
Expert
Alex Durante
Senior Economist
Alex Durante is an Senior Economist at the Tax Foundation, working on federal tax policy and model development. He previously served as a Taxes and Growth Fellow at the Tax Foundation from 2015 to 2016.
Alex worked as a research assistant for three years at the Federal Reserve Board on a household survey, where he coauthored reports on the “Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households.” From 2019 through 2020, he served as a staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers, working primarily on trade policy and contributing economic analysis to the “Economic Report to the President.” He holds a BS in Economics from The College of New Jersey and an MS in Applied Economics from Johns Hopkins University.
Originally from New Jersey, Alex currently lives in Washington, D.C. His hobbies include tennis, boxing and mixed martial arts, and playing bass and drums.
Latest Work
No, Tariffs Are Not Strengthening the Economy
Testifying to Congress, United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer argued that “President Trump’s trade policy is working.” The data present a different picture: President Trump’s trade agenda is actually holding back the economy.
American Compass’s “Tariff Tally” Doesn’t Add Up
The evidence overall paints a far different picture than American Compass presents, and a consistent theoretical framework undercuts its assertions of how tariffs should be expected to impact the economy moving forward.
25 min read
How Much Revenue Would Senator Sanders’ Wealth Tax Proposal Really Raise?
Senator Bernie Sanders introduced a proposed 5 percent annual wealth tax on billionaires to fund direct payments to Americans and expand social welfare programs.
5 min read
Pharmaceutical Tariffs Would Add Costs and Reduce Innovation
Thought the Trump administration has not yet imposed new, industry-specific tariffs on drugs or active pharmaceutical ingredients, such tariffs would be a hidden cost on Americans: they would shrink incomes, reduce investment, and lead to less innovation.
7 min read
Tariffs Increased Retail Prices of Imports by 7 Percentage Points Prior to Supreme Court Ruling
President Trump and those in his administration have insisted that consumers are not bearing any of the tariffs. But the latest data show exactly the opposite.
5 min read
Trump Tariffs Threaten to Offset Much of the “Big Beautiful Bill” Tax Cuts
The tariffs now in effect threaten to offset much of the GDP growth from the tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them.
3 min read
Supreme Court Strikes Down President Trump’s Tariffs
The Supreme Court ruling against the IEEPA tariffs provides immediate relief to US businesses and workers and is a welcome rebuke of President Trump’s overreach of executive authority to unilaterally impose significant tax hikes on the US economy.
6 min read
How Does the Additional Senior Deduction Compare to No Tax on Social Security?
The increased senior deduction with the phaseout would deliver a larger tax cut to lower-middle- and middle-income taxpayers compared to exempting all Social Security benefits from income taxation and would not weaken the trust funds as much. But given the temporary nature of the policy, it would increase the deficit-impact of the reconciliation bills without boosting long-run economic growth.
3 min read
One Big Beautiful Bill Act Tax Policies: Details and Analysis
Our analysis of the major tax provisions included in the OBBBA finds it will increase long-run GDP by 0.7 percent. The major tax provisions will reduce federal tax revenue by nearly $5.2 trillion between 2025 and 2034, on a conventional basis.
12 min read
The Federal Payroll Tax: A Primer
With changes to payroll taxes likely to be part of a toolkit for reform, both policymakers and the public would benefit from understanding how the payroll tax works, who pays it, and its impact on the economy.
21 min read
Even After Exemptions, More than Half of Food Products Continue to Face Trump Tariffs
The Trump tariffs will likely raise the cost of food for Americans, particularly for liqueurs and spirits, baked goods, coffee, fish, and beer.
4 min read
2026 Tax Brackets
Explore the IRS inflation-adjusted 2026 tax brackets, for which taxpayers will file tax returns in early 2027.
5 min read
2025 Tax Brackets
Explore the IRS inflation-adjusted 2025 tax brackets, for which taxpayers will file tax returns in early 2026.
4 min read
Tariff Rebate Checks Won’t Help Families. Ending the Trade War Would.
One thing remains certain: sending out tariff rebates does not provide a long-term solution for families, but ending the trade war would.
Who Has the Authority to Levy Tariffs?
The US Supreme Court heard oral arguments on November 5 to determine whether the president’s emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) include the power to impose tariffs.
6 min read
Trump’s Tariffs Head to the Supreme Court
In this episode of The Deduction, we unpack Trump’s tariffs as they head to the Supreme Court. We break down scenarios if the Court upholds or strikes the tariffs, who really pays, and how Congress might respond—your concise guide to tariffs and the Supreme Court.
What You Should Know About the Trump Tariffs Being Challenged at the Supreme Court
The Supreme Court is deciding a case over whether the President can impose sweeping tax increases on imported goods. It’s a multi-trillion-dollar question with enormous implications for the US economy, taxpayers, and limitations on emergency powers.
5 min read
Federal Revenue and Distributional Impacts of Limiting the Tax Exclusion for Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance Premiums
Policymakers are considering ways to extend the enhancements made to Affordable Care Act premium tax credits that expire at the end of the year, which could cost $350 billion over the next decade. Any expansion of the credits should be offset by reducing other healthcare subsidies or preferences in the tax code, the largest of which is the exclusion for employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) premiums, estimated to cost more than $5 trillion over the next decade due to reduced income and payroll tax revenue.
10 min read
Financial Ruin? Why Losing IEEPA Tariff Revenue Won’t Change the Long-Term US Fiscal Trajectory
The US fiscal trajectory is on an unsustainable path over the next 35 years, regardless of whether the IEEPA tariffs are struck down or maintained.
3 min read