The Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy uses our dynamic Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model to analyze the economic, budgetary, and distributional impact of campaign, legislative, and other popular tax policy proposals. Explore our modeling below.
This tax reform plan would boost long-run GDP by 2.5%, grow wages by 1.4%, and add 1.3M jobs, all while collecting a similar amount of tax revenue as the current code and reducing the long-run debt burden.
39 min read
Lawmakers will have to weigh the economic, revenue, and distributional trade-offs of extending or making permanent the various provisions of the TCJA as they decide how to approach the upcoming expirations. A commitment to growth, opportunity, and fiscal responsibility should guide the approach.
18 min read
The Trump administration imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans by levying tariffs on thousands of products in 2018 and 2019, amounting to one of the largest tax increases in decades. The Biden administration has kept most of the Trump administration tariffs in place
19 min read
According to our analysis, President Biden’s budget would reduce long-run economic output by about 1.3 percent and eliminate 335,000 FTE jobs. See what tax policies the president is proposing.
17 min read
How will the Inflation Reduction Act taxes impact inflation, economic growth, tax revenue, and everyday taxpayers? See Inflation Reduction Act tax changes.
12 min read
A robust collection of 70 potential US tax reform changes and US tax reform options for reforming the tax code. See the comprehensive tax reform guide.
If lawmakers are serious about pro-growth policies and fiscal responsibility, they will need to put policies forward that achieve those goals. Simply adjusting the baseline doesn’t reduce actual deficits in the coming years.
7 min read
Fiscal pressures are likely to weigh heavily on lawmakers as they craft a tax reform package. That increased pressure could result in well-designed tax reform that prioritizes economic growth, simplicity, and stability, or it could encourage budget gimmicks and economically harmful offsets. Lawmakers should avoid the latter.
8 min read
President-elect Trump may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire. Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy.
5 min read
Lawmakers will need to pursue fiscal responsibility as they address the tax law expirations, but fiscal responsibility requires finding sound ways to pay for spending priorities. Tariffs don’t make the cut.
4 min read
On tax policy, Harris carries forward much of President Biden’s FY 2025 budget, including higher taxes aimed at businesses and high earners. She would also further expand the child tax credit (CTC) and various other tax credits and incentives while exempting tips from income tax.
17 min read
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min read
Using tariff policy to reallocate investment and jobs is a costly mistake—that’s a history lesson we should not forget.
6 min read
A new analysis finds that the tax increase would reduce average wages by as much as $597 per US worker each year. In some states, the drop in wages would exceed $700 per worker.
4 min read
Exempting overtime would unnecessarily complicate the tax code, increase compliance and administrative costs, and reduce neutrality by favoring certain work arrangements over others.
5 min read
Allowing full deductibility of residential structures would mean more housing construction, particularly multifamily housing—a practical solution to address housing affordability challenges.
6 min read
Depending on the 2024 US election, the current corporate tax rate of 21 percent could be in for a change. See the modeling here.
4 min read
Exempting Social Security benefits from income tax would increase the budget deficit by about $1.6 trillion over 10 years, accelerate the insolvency of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, and create a new hole in the income tax without a sound policy rationale.
6 min read
A 15 percent corporate rate would be pro-growth, but it would not address the structural issues with today’s corporate tax base.
4 min read
From President Biden calling the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act the “largest tax cut in American history,” to former President Trump claiming that Biden “wants to raise your taxes by four times,” the campaign rhetoric on taxes may be sparking some confusion.
5 min read
The Trump administration imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans by levying tariffs on thousands of products in 2018 and 2019, amounting to one of the largest tax increases in decades. The Biden administration has kept most of the Trump administration tariffs in place
19 min read
Universal savings accounts would boost savings for low-income households, allowing them to better withstand economic shocks, such as pandemics and recessions, and plan for major expenses, such as an expanded family, education, and housing needs.
36 min read
The Section 232 tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum raised the cost of production for manufacturers, reducing employment in those industries, raising prices for consumers, and hurting exports.
18 min read
Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
21 min read
Given that U.S. debt is roughly the size of our annual economic output, policymakers will face many tough fiscal choices in the coming years. The good news is there are policies that both support a larger economy and avoid adding to the debt.
6 min read
From a revenue standpoint, about $9 billion of the $11.7 billion in lost revenue would accrue to joint filers earning more than $200,000.
5 min read