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Evaluating U.S. Tax Reform Options & Trade-Offs

The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic poses a triple challenge for tax policy in the United States. Lawmakers are tasked with crafting a policy response that will accelerate the economic recovery, reduce the mounting deficit, and protect the most vulnerable.

To assist lawmakers in navigating the challenge, and to help the American public understand the tax changes being proposed, the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy modeled how 70 potential changes to the tax code would affect the U.S. economy, distribution of the tax burden, and federal revenue.

In tax policy there is an ever-present trade-off among how much revenue a tax will raise, who bears the burden of a tax, and what impact a tax will have on economic growth. Armed with the information in our new book, Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, policymakers can debate the relative merits and trade-offs of each option to improve the tax code in a post-pandemic world.

state tax inflation response like state tax rebates and tax holidays to combat inflation Federal tax collections inflation surging 2022

Inflation Is Surging, So Are Federal Tax Collections

Federal tax collections are approaching the highest levels in U.S. history set during World War II and again during the dot-com bubble in 2000. Meanwhile, federal spending in FY 2022 was over 25 percent of GDP—a level only exceeded during the height of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, and during World War II.

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Tax Hike Proposals Live on Despite Being Dropped in the Inflation Reduction Act

President Biden proposed a 7-point hike in the corporate tax rate to 28 percent, a new minimum book tax on corporate profits, and higher taxes on international activity. We estimated these proposals would reduce the size of the economy (GDP) by 1.6 percent over the long run and eliminate 542,000 jobs.

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Tyreek Hill taxes Tyreek hill state taxes and tax liability NFL federal tax on sports betting, excise tax on sports betting. BILL TO REPEAL EXCISE TAX ON LEGAL SPORTS BETS, Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) and Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-PA) Super bowl sports betting. States Positioned for a Super Bowl Win with New Taxes on Sports Betting. The American Gaming Association estimates that Americans will wager a total of $4.3 billion on the highly anticipated matchup of the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa.

Tyreek Hill’s Tax Liability with Every NFL Franchise

When NFL star wide receiver Tyreek Hill weighed offers from the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins, no doubt there was a lot on his mind. But one consideration towered over the rest, at least according to Hill himself: signing with the Jets “was very close to happening,” but “those state taxes man. I had to make a grown-up decision.”

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Focusing on Wealth Inequality Is Counterproductive

While there is more we can do to encourage lower- and middle-class households to save more and build wealth, a closer, more comprehensive look at the data and trends in other countries suggests that America’s wealth gap is not as alarming as some may think.

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The “Inflation Tax” Is Regressive

A new CBO report reveals that lower- and middle-income households are disproportionately shouldering the burden of this current inflation wave. And historical analysis suggests there is much more to come.

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The Sticks: Inflation Reduction Act’s Energy-Related Tax Increases

The Inflation Reduction Act primarily uses carrots, not sticks, to incentivize reductions in carbon emissions. It creates or expands tax credits for various low- or no-emission technologies, rather than imposing a generalized penalty for emissions, such as a carbon tax.

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