Tariff Tracker: Impact of Trump Tariffs & Trade War by the Numbers
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
51 min read
Featured Articles
Even After Exemptions, More than Half of Food Products Continue to Face Trump Tariffs
The Trump tariffs will likely raise the cost of food for Americans, particularly for liqueurs and spirits, baked goods, coffee, fish, and beer.
4 min read
The Best Way to Provide Relief Is to Repeal Tariffs, Not Offer Tariff Rebate Checks
As US businesses and consumers face higher costs of goods due to the Trump tariffs, Senator Hawley (R-MO) has introduced legislation to rebate tariff revenue to provide financial relief. The proposal takes a similar approach to the stimulus checks issued during the COVID-19 pandemic.
4 min read
The Truth About Tariffs—Fact-Checking Trump’s Trade Claims
Do tariffs really level the playing field, or are they just bad economics? In this emergency episode, we fact-check the Trump administration’s claims that retaliatory tariffs make trade fairer.
Who Pays Tariffs? Americans Will Bear the Costs of the Next Trade War
Rather than hurting foreign exporters, the economic evidence shows American firms and consumers were hardest hit by tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first-term.
5 min read
Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs
Contrary to the president’s promises, the tariffs will cause short-term pain and long-term pain, no matter the ways people and businesses change their behavior.
5 min read
Testimony: Alternatives to Tariffs to Boost US Competitiveness
While tariffs are often presented as tools to enhance US competitiveness, a long history of evidence and recent experience shows they lead to increased costs for consumers and unprotected producers and harmful retaliation, which outweighs the benefits afforded to protected industries.
Learning from the First Trade War: Retaliation Hurts US Exporters
As we learned in the first trade war, retaliation will exact harm on US exporters by lowering their export sales—and the US-imposed tariffs will directly harm exporters too. US-imposed tariffs can burden exporters by increasing input costs, which acts like a tax on exports.
4 min read
How Will Trump’s Universal and China Tariffs Impact the Economy?
President-elect Trump may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire. Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy.
5 min read
The European VAT is Not a Discriminatory Tax Against US Exports
The Trump administration appears to be moving in a “reciprocal” policy direction despite the significant negative economic consequences for American consumers of across-the-board tariffs on goods coming into the US. However, the EU’s VAT system should not be used as a justification for retaliatory tariffs.
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Donald Trump Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min read
Trump’s Tariff Proposals Would Raise Tariff Rates to Great Depression-Era Levels
Using tariff policy to reallocate investment and jobs is a costly mistake—that’s a history lesson we should not forget.
6 min read
Revenue Estimates of Trump’s Universal Baseline Tariffs
Lawmakers will need to pursue fiscal responsibility as they address the tax law expirations, but fiscal responsibility requires finding sound ways to pay for spending priorities. Tariffs don’t make the cut.
4 min read
Why the Economic Effects of Taxes (Including Tariffs) Matter
Estimating the economic effects of different types of taxes informs policymakers about the trade-offs of raising revenue in a given way.
5 min read
2024 Election Insights | Can Trump’s Tariff Plan Really Replace the Income Tax?
Can tariffs truly replace income taxes in today’s economy? In this episode, we examine the bold and controversial proposal from former President Trump to replace income taxes with tariffs. What would this dramatic shift mean for everyday Americans, particularly those with lower incomes? And would it actually work?
All Related Articles
Are Trump’s Tariffs Legal? Here’s What the Courts Say
It’s been a whirlwind 24 hours in tariff news: first, a trade court blocked Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, calling them executive overreach. Then, a federal appeals court reinstated them—at least for now. We break down what happened, what’s next, and why it matters.
A Tax War That Makes Americans Poorer
When governments restrict trade—through tariffs and retaliation—no one truly wins.
What Are the Goals of Retaliatory Tax Policies?
The US Ways and Means Committee’s “Big Beautiful Bill” includes a retaliatory provision called Section 899, along with an expansion of the base erosion and anti-abuse tax (BEAT).
7 min read
A Stable Tax Code Would Ease an Uncertain Economy
Lawmakers have a prime opportunity to achieve a more stable economy through the debate about the tax code that is now ramping up.
The Pro-Growth Minority Must Continue to Stand Up
The Republican party, led by President Trump, has decided that growth is no longer a priority. This is evident in the president’s trade war, the minimal opposition among Republican members of Congress, and the seemingly endless supply of bad policy ideas that will do little to support growth.
Even with Exemptions, Tariffs Will Hurt American Energy Production
The Trump administration advocates an “energy dominance” agenda to boost US energy production and lower costs. Its tariff agenda runs directly counter to it.
5 min read
Balls and Strikes on American Manufacturing: What Are the Facts?
Catastrophic rhetoric about US manufacturing is not justified. The tariffs are extremely counterproductive. Still, all is not well in the US manufacturing sector. What should we do?
7 min read
Digital Services Taxes in Europe, 2025
Currently, about half of all European OECD countries have either announced, proposed, or implemented a digital services tax. Because these taxes mainly impact US companies and are thus perceived as discriminatory, the US responded with retaliatory tariff threats.
5 min read
Trump Floats Replacing Income Tax with Tariffs: Five Things To Know
President Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of entirely replacing the federal income tax with new tariffs. Recently, he has said that when tariff revenues come in, he will use them to replace or substantially cut income taxes for people making under $200,000.
8 min read
How Much Revenue Can Tariffs Really Raise for the Federal Government?
Could tariffs, a form of government finance heavily relied upon in the 18th and 19th centuries, function as a major source of revenue for a modern, developed economy in the 21st century?
16 min read
Trump’s “Reciprocal Tariffs” Are Based on Fake Calculations and Fake Economics
The Trump administration recently announced a new round of so-called “reciprocal” tariffs, ranging from 10 percent to 50 percent, assigned to nearly every US trading partner. There’s a problem with its notion of “reciprocity,” though. The White House’s tariffs are intended to be real, while the so-called tariffs it is responding to are fake.
White House Cites Tariff Reports That Undermine Its Own Claims
Attempting to defend Trump’s tariffs, the White House points to studies that show they raise prices, cut manufacturing output, and lead to costly retaliation.
The Truth About Tariffs—Fact-Checking Trump’s Trade Claims
Do tariffs really level the playing field, or are they just bad economics? In this emergency episode, we fact-check the Trump administration’s claims that retaliatory tariffs make trade fairer.
Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Calculations Are Nonsense, Will Punish Mutually Beneficial Trade
Despite characterizing the tariffs as “reciprocal,” the White House didn’t actually measure tariffs, currency manipulation, or trade barrier policies employed by other countries. Instead, it drew its estimates from something else entirely: bilateral trade deficits in goods.
7 min read
The Global Tax Deal, Tax Cuts, and Tariffs—5 Major Tax Debates
What are the biggest tax stories shaping policy today—and what do they mean for you? In our 100th episode, we break down the five biggest tax stories, from the global tax deal to the looming expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
How Will President Trump’s Tariffs Affect the Value of the Dollar?
President Trump has announced that new tariffs will go into effect on April 2, following several weeks of threats. These new tariffs are likely to be broader in scope than the limited ones implemented thus far. So who is likely to pay for them?
7 min read
Discrimination vs. Neutrality: A Case Study in the Middle of a Trade War
Policymakers should aim for neutral tax policies that support stable revenues like VATs and avoid inviting trade conflicts with discriminatory and economically harmful policies like DSTs.
6 min read
As Trump’s “Liberation Day” of Global Tariffs Nears, Europe Is in a Tight Spot
With the imposition of American tariffs on steel and aluminum imports on March 12th, the European Union was officially pulled into the global trade war.
Trade Strengthens Economies
Whether we look at it as consumers of these goods, or as middle-class workers who transform them, low-cost goods have been the underpinning of American prosperity.
Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs
Contrary to the president’s promises, the tariffs will cause short-term pain and long-term pain, no matter the ways people and businesses change their behavior.
5 min read