Trump’s new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China would rank as the largest tax increase since 1993 and the 8th largest peacetime tax increase since 1940. We estimate the new tariffs would shrink economic output by 0.4 percent and increase taxes by $1.1 trillion, amounting to an average tax increase of more than $800 per US household in 2025.
20 min read
The proposed ad quantum tax would be the system that most closely follows the global best practices for alcohol taxes we previously outlined.
4 min read
Facing a projected $3 billion budget deficit in fiscal year 2026, with forecasts of a growing gap over the next five years, Governor Wes Moore (D) has included about $1 billion in proposed tax increases in his budget proposal.
7 min read
Given the poor state of the budget process and worsening debt trajectory, lawmakers should move boldly and quickly to address the issue, including via a fiscal commission process. Issues to consider should include reforms to both spending and taxes.
42 min read
Thirty-nine states will begin 2025 with notable tax changes, including nine states cutting individual income taxes. Recent years have seen a wave of significant tax reforms, and the changes scheduled for 2025 show that these efforts have not let up.
25 min read
The US already has massive problems with cigarette smuggling. A cigarette prohibition would be devastating to tax coffers while pushing smokers toward what could become the world’s largest illicit market.
4 min read
Tax avoidance is a natural consequence of tax policy. Policymakers should consider the unintended consequences, both to public health and public coffers, of the excise taxes and regulatory regimes for cigarettes and other nicotine products.
5 min read
Consumers legally wagered more than $100 billion on sporting contests in 2023, creating more than $1.8 billion in state revenue. Sports betting is now legal in 38 states and DC, and the landscape is rapidly evolving.
18 min read
Growing cigarette tax levels and differentials have made cigarette smuggling both a national problem and a lucrative criminal enterprise.
16 min read
With the significant potential for state revenues, and the prior political success of arguments that legalization can shift consumers to safer legal markets, it seems likely that states will continue to see legislation and ballot initiatives to legalize marijuana at the state level—even states that failed to do so this election.
5 min read
Fiscal pressures are likely to weigh heavily on lawmakers as they craft a tax reform package. That increased pressure could result in well-designed tax reform that prioritizes economic growth, simplicity, and stability, or it could encourage budget gimmicks and economically harmful offsets. Lawmakers should avoid the latter.
8 min read
Spain’s central government could learn some valuable lessons from its regional governments and other European countries about sound tax policy.
7 min read
Over 500 million premium cigars were sold in the United States in 2023. With each sale comes a complex tax landscape.
4 min read
Even though energy prices have declined from their recent peak, the United Kingdom is one of the few countries in Europe continuing to rely on windfall profits taxes to support households with the rising cost of living.
4 min read
The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
115 min read
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min read
Spain’s central government is considering making its windfall taxes on energy companies and the banking sector permanent.
6 min read
While federal tax collections—especially corporate taxes—have reached historically high levels, these gains have not kept pace with escalating spending, particularly on debt interest, leading to a substantial and concerning budget deficit in FY24.
6 min read
As the geopolitical scene continues to change, policymakers in Europe should focus on lowering effective marginal tax rates to drive much-needed investment and long-term economic growth.
6 min read
The Brazilian government is poised to make the biggest change to its alcohol tax policy in recent history.
6 min read