Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
14 min read
Expert
Erica York
Vice President of Federal Tax Policy
Erica York is Vice President of Federal Tax Policy with Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy. She previously worked as an auditor at a large community bank in Kansas and interned at Tax Foundation’s Center for State Tax Policy.
Her analysis has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Politico, and other national and international media outlets. She holds a master’s degree in Economics from Wichita State University and an undergraduate degree in Business Administration and Economics from Sterling (KS) College, where she is currently an adjunct professor. Erica lives in Kansas with her husband and their two children.
Latest Work
“Big Beautiful Bill” Senate GOP Tax Plan: Preliminary Details and Analysis
Our preliminary analysis of the Senate Finance tax plan finds the major tax provisions would increase long-run GDP by 1.1 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.7 trillion over the next decade.
9 min read
Breaking Down the Senior Deduction in the One, Big, Beautiful Bill
The House-passed reconciliation bill leaves out Trump’s promise to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, opting instead to expand the standard deduction for seniors.
How Does the House-Passed Tax Bill Change the Section 199A Pass-Through Deduction?
Rather than permanently expanding a complicated, nonneutral tax break, Congress should prioritize permanence for the most neutral and pro-growth policies like bonus depreciation and R&D expensing.
6 min read
“Big Beautiful Bill” House GOP Tax Plan: Preliminary Details and Analysis
Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions increase long-run GDP by 0.8 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
9 min read
Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
37 min read
One, Big, Beautiful Bill: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
From generous tax breaks to costly trade-offs, the House GOP’s One, Big, Beautiful Bill has a little of everything. It’s a sweeping attempt to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act before they expire in 2026—but what’s actually in it?
Are Trump’s Tariffs Legal? Here’s What the Courts Say
It’s been a whirlwind 24 hours in tariff news: first, a trade court blocked Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, calling them executive overreach. Then, a federal appeals court reinstated them—at least for now. We break down what happened, what’s next, and why it matters.
Current Trump Tariffs Threaten to Offset Benefits of Promised Tax Cuts
While Congress works on the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” to cut taxes, President Trump has imposed significantly higher taxes by placing tariffs on more than 70 percent of US imports.
2 min read
House Tax Package Could Double Economic Growth Impact by Prioritizing Permanence for TCJA Business Provisions
As the current tax package stands, the House’s use of temporary policy is leaving most of the economic growth opportunities on the table.
2 min read
House “One Big Beautiful Bill” Riddled with Temporary Tax Policy
As lawmakers continue to debate the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” they should abandon temporary and complex policy in favor of simplicity and stability.
4 min read
What Happens If Social Security Runs Out in 2035?
What happens when the country’s most important retirement program runs out of money? Social Security faces a funding crisis by 2035. We unpack how the system works, why it’s in trouble, and what fixes could keep it afloat.
Five Things To Know About Trump’s Income Tax and Tariff Idea
President Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of entirely replacing the federal income tax with new tariffs. Recently, he has said that when tariff revenues come in, he will use them to replace or substantially cut income taxes for people making under $200,000.
8 min read
How Much Revenue Can Tariffs Really Raise for the Federal Government?
Could tariffs, a form of government finance heavily relied upon in the 18th and 19th centuries, function as a major source of revenue for a modern, developed economy in the 21st century?
16 min read
The Truth About Tariffs—Fact-Checking Trump’s Trade Claims
Do tariffs really level the playing field, or are they just bad economics? In this emergency episode, we fact-check the Trump administration’s claims that retaliatory tariffs make trade fairer.
The Global Tax Deal, Tax Cuts, and Tariffs—5 Major Tax Debates
What are the biggest tax stories shaping policy today—and what do they mean for you? In our 100th episode, we break down the five biggest tax stories, from the global tax deal to the looming expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs
Contrary to the president’s promises, the tariffs will cause short-term pain and long-term pain, no matter the ways people and businesses change their behavior.
5 min read
Learning from the First Trade War: Retaliation Hurts US Exporters
As we learned in the first trade war, retaliation will exact harm on US exporters by lowering their export sales—and the US-imposed tariffs will directly harm exporters too. US-imposed tariffs can burden exporters by increasing input costs, which acts like a tax on exports.
4 min read
Understanding the Property Tax
With property tax bills on the rise, homeowners are searching for answers—and some even want to abolish the tax altogether. In this episode, we break down why property taxes are increasing, common but flawed solutions, and why the property tax remains an economically efficient revenue source.
Overview of the Tax Foundation’s General Equilibrium Model
The Tax Foundation uses and maintains a General Equilibrium Model, known as our Taxes and Growth (TAG) Model to simulate the effects of government tax and spending policies on the economy and on government revenues and budgets.
9 min read