Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
14 min read
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Economic and Tax Modeling
Since 2012, we have used our Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model to analyze dozens of legislative and campaign tax proposals, including every major tax plan put forth during the 2016 presidential campaigns, the House GOP’s 2016 Tax Reform Blueprint, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and President Biden’s tax reform agenda. See Our Economic and Tax Modeling
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Making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Permanent: Economic, Revenue, and Distributional Effects
Permanently extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would boost long-run economic output by 1.1 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, wages by 0.5 percent, and hours worked by 847,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
6 min read
Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
37 min read
Tax Calculator: How the TCJA’s Expiration Will Affect You
Unless Congress acts, Americans are in for a tax hike in 2026.
3 min read
Expiring TCJA Tax Provisions in 2026 Would Produce Substantial Tax Hike across the US
At the end of 2025, the individual tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire all at once. Without congressional action, most taxpayers will see a notable tax increase relative to current policy in 2026.
4 min read
Options for Navigating the 2025 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Expirations
Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
21 min read
A Tax Reform Plan for Growth and Opportunity: Details & Analysis
This tax reform plan would boost long-run GDP by 2.5%, grow wages by 1.4%, and add 1.3M jobs, all while collecting a similar amount of tax revenue as the current code and reducing the long-run debt burden.
38 min read
The Unsustainable US Debt Course and Impacts of Potential Tax Changes
Given the poor state of the budget process and worsening debt trajectory, lawmakers should move boldly and quickly to address the issue, including via a fiscal commission process. Issues to consider should include reforms to both spending and taxes.
42 min read
Risks to the US Tax Base from Pillar Two
A growing international tax agreement known as Pillar Two presents two new threats to the US tax base: potential lost revenue and limitations on Congress’s ability to set its own tax policy.
39 min readAll Related Articles
702 Results
An Overview of Capital Gains Taxes
Capital gains taxes create a burden on saving because they are an additional layer of taxes on a given dollar of income. The capital gains tax rate cannot be directly compared to individual income tax rates, because the additional layers of tax that apply to capital gains income must also be part of the discussion.
14 min read
The Alternative Minimum Tax Still Burdens Taxpayers with Compliance Costs
Although Congress intended the AMT to be a tax on wealthy taxpayers, for much of its history it has subjected middle-income taxpayers in high-tax states to heavy compliance burdens. TCJA reforms that have increased the AMT’s exemption and exemption phaseout threshold will shield some taxpayers from the AMT through 2025, but the number of taxpayers impacted will increase in 2026 when the TCJA’s individual income tax reforms expire.
14 min read
Tax Policy and Entrepreneurship: A Framework for Analysis
A key element of America’s dynamism problem is a drop in entrepreneurship. Removing tax barriers for entrepreneurs would improve America’s dynamism while making America’s tax code more neutral, efficient, and simple for all taxpayers.
25 min readReforming Rental Car Excise Taxes
The growing number of options that travelers have for rental cars, including peer-to-peer car-sharing arrangements, is an opportunity for policymakers to revisit the policy rationale for these discriminatory taxes.
26 min read
Tax Treatment of Worker Training
15 min read
Analysis of the Cost-of-Living Refund Act of 2019
We estimate that a new proposal to expand the EITC would reduce federal revenue by $1.8 trillion and decrease long-run GDP by 0.29 percent, while boosting labor force participation for low-income tax filers by 822,788 full-time equivalent jobs.
10 min read