Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
10 min read
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Since 2012, we have used our Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model to analyze dozens of legislative and campaign tax proposals, including every major tax plan put forth during the 2016 presidential campaigns, the House GOP’s 2016 Tax Reform Blueprint, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and President Biden’s tax reform agenda. See Our Economic and Tax Modeling
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Making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Permanent: Economic, Revenue, and Distributional Effects
Permanently extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would boost long-run economic output by 1.1 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, wages by 0.5 percent, and hours worked by 847,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
6 min read
Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
33 min read
Tax Calculator: How the TCJA’s Expiration Will Affect You
Unless Congress acts, Americans are in for a tax hike in 2026.
3 min read
Expiring TCJA Tax Provisions in 2026 Would Produce Substantial Tax Hike across the US
At the end of 2025, the individual tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire all at once. Without congressional action, most taxpayers will see a notable tax increase relative to current policy in 2026.
4 min read
Options for Navigating the 2025 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Expirations
Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
21 min read
A Tax Reform Plan for Growth and Opportunity: Details & Analysis
This tax reform plan would boost long-run GDP by 2.5%, grow wages by 1.4%, and add 1.3M jobs, all while collecting a similar amount of tax revenue as the current code and reducing the long-run debt burden.
38 min read
The Unsustainable US Debt Course and Impacts of Potential Tax Changes
Given the poor state of the budget process and worsening debt trajectory, lawmakers should move boldly and quickly to address the issue, including via a fiscal commission process. Issues to consider should include reforms to both spending and taxes.
42 min read
Risks to the U.S. Tax Base from Pillar Two
A growing international tax agreement known as Pillar Two presents two new threats to the U.S. tax base: potential lost revenue and limitations on Congress’s ability to set its own tax policy.
39 min readAll Related Articles
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Measuring Opportunity Zone Success
16 min read
Anti-Base Erosion Provisions and Territorial Tax Systems in OECD Countries
The U.S. decision to adopt a territorial tax system is certainly an improvement over having a worldwide system. However, in moving to a territorial system some of the new features created with the TCJA increased the complexity of the system.
38 min read
An Analysis of Senator Warren’s ‘Real Corporate Profits Tax’
Sen. Elizabeth Warren introduced a 7 percent surtax on corporate profits called the “Real Corporate Profits Tax.” We estimate that this tax would reduce the incentive to invest in the United States, and result in a 1.9 percent smaller economy, a 3.3 percent smaller capital stock, and 1.5 percent lower wages. The surtax would raise $872 billion between 2020 and 2029 on a conventional basis and $476 billion on a dynamic basis. The tax would make the tax code more progressive, but it would fall on taxpayers in every income group.
9 min read
An Overview of Capital Gains Taxes
Capital gains taxes create a burden on saving because they are an additional layer of taxes on a given dollar of income. The capital gains tax rate cannot be directly compared to individual income tax rates, because the additional layers of tax that apply to capital gains income must also be part of the discussion.
14 min read
The Alternative Minimum Tax Still Burdens Taxpayers with Compliance Costs
Although Congress intended the AMT to be a tax on wealthy taxpayers, for much of its history it has subjected middle-income taxpayers in high-tax states to heavy compliance burdens. TCJA reforms that have increased the AMT’s exemption and exemption phaseout threshold will shield some taxpayers from the AMT through 2025, but the number of taxpayers impacted will increase in 2026 when the TCJA’s individual income tax reforms expire.
14 min read