Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
10 min read
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Since 2012, we have used our Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model to analyze dozens of legislative and campaign tax proposals, including every major tax plan put forth during the 2016 presidential campaigns, the House GOP’s 2016 Tax Reform Blueprint, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and President Biden’s tax reform agenda. See Our Economic and Tax Modeling
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Cost Recovery | Taxes & Inflation | Taxes on Savers & Investors | Carbon Taxes
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Making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Permanent: Economic, Revenue, and Distributional Effects
Permanently extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would boost long-run economic output by 1.1 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, wages by 0.5 percent, and hours worked by 847,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
6 min read
Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
33 min read
Tax Calculator: How the TCJA’s Expiration Will Affect You
Unless Congress acts, Americans are in for a tax hike in 2026.
3 min read
Expiring TCJA Tax Provisions in 2026 Would Produce Substantial Tax Hike across the US
At the end of 2025, the individual tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire all at once. Without congressional action, most taxpayers will see a notable tax increase relative to current policy in 2026.
4 min read
Options for Navigating the 2025 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Expirations
Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
21 min read
A Tax Reform Plan for Growth and Opportunity: Details & Analysis
This tax reform plan would boost long-run GDP by 2.5%, grow wages by 1.4%, and add 1.3M jobs, all while collecting a similar amount of tax revenue as the current code and reducing the long-run debt burden.
38 min read
The Unsustainable US Debt Course and Impacts of Potential Tax Changes
Given the poor state of the budget process and worsening debt trajectory, lawmakers should move boldly and quickly to address the issue, including via a fiscal commission process. Issues to consider should include reforms to both spending and taxes.
42 min read
Risks to the U.S. Tax Base from Pillar Two
A growing international tax agreement known as Pillar Two presents two new threats to the U.S. tax base: potential lost revenue and limitations on Congress’s ability to set its own tax policy.
39 min readAll Related Articles
700 Results
The Distributional Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act over the Next Decade
Taxpayers in every income level will receive a tax cut in 2018 and for most of the next decade. See how the size of that tax cut will vary for each income group over the next decade with our new, long-term distributional analysis.
33 min read
Reforming the Pass-Through Deduction
Here’s how the new pass-through deduction works and how it can be reformed to be less complex, less prone to abuse, more neutral, and more economically efficient.
49 min readAre Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes Regressive? Evidence from Household Retail Purchases
Soda taxes are proposed with the promise to improve public health outcomes, but they come with equity concerns because of their regressive nature.
23 min read
The Fixtures Fix: Correcting the Drafting Error Involving the Expensing of Qualified Improvement Property
Due to a legislative oversight, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act excluded the category of qualified improvement property investment from 100 percent bonus depreciation.
12 min read
The Complicated Taxation of America’s Retirement Accounts
Changes to the way we tax long-term savings could remove the excess tax burden on saving and investment, helping individuals to better provide for their financial future.
15 min read