Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
10 min read
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Since 2012, we have used our Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model to analyze dozens of legislative and campaign tax proposals, including every major tax plan put forth during the 2016 presidential campaigns, the House GOP’s 2016 Tax Reform Blueprint, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and President Biden’s tax reform agenda. See Our Economic and Tax Modeling
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Making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Permanent: Economic, Revenue, and Distributional Effects
Permanently extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would boost long-run economic output by 1.1 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, wages by 0.5 percent, and hours worked by 847,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
6 min read
Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
33 min read
Tax Calculator: How the TCJA’s Expiration Will Affect You
Unless Congress acts, Americans are in for a tax hike in 2026.
3 min read
Expiring TCJA Tax Provisions in 2026 Would Produce Substantial Tax Hike across the US
At the end of 2025, the individual tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire all at once. Without congressional action, most taxpayers will see a notable tax increase relative to current policy in 2026.
4 min read
Options for Navigating the 2025 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Expirations
Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
21 min read
A Tax Reform Plan for Growth and Opportunity: Details & Analysis
This tax reform plan would boost long-run GDP by 2.5%, grow wages by 1.4%, and add 1.3M jobs, all while collecting a similar amount of tax revenue as the current code and reducing the long-run debt burden.
38 min read
The Unsustainable US Debt Course and Impacts of Potential Tax Changes
Given the poor state of the budget process and worsening debt trajectory, lawmakers should move boldly and quickly to address the issue, including via a fiscal commission process. Issues to consider should include reforms to both spending and taxes.
42 min read
Risks to the U.S. Tax Base from Pillar Two
A growing international tax agreement known as Pillar Two presents two new threats to the U.S. tax base: potential lost revenue and limitations on Congress’s ability to set its own tax policy.
39 min readAll Related Articles
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Contrary to “Fair Share” Claims, Businesses are Central to Tax Collection Systems
Taxes matter to investment decisions. Global tax collectors must weigh the marginal benefit of additional revenues against the economic harm high business taxes could cause.
19 min read
A Hybrid Approach: The Treatment of Foreign Profits under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act moved the U.S. toward more of a territorial corporate tax system used by most other OECD countries. However, the U.S. law contains key differences in the treatment of foreign profits.
24 min read
Recommendations to Congress on the 2018 Tax Extenders
Congress should allow these tax extenders to expire and instead focus on making permanent features of the tax code that move it toward a more ideal system, such as full expensing.
12 min read
The Tax Foundation’s Taxes and Growth Model
In an attempt to provide a realistic, data-driven analysis of federal tax policy, the Tax Foundation has developed a General Equilibrium Model to simulate the effects of tax policies on the economy and on government revenues and budgets.
6 min read
New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut v. the United States: A Preview of the SALT Limit Constitutional Challenge
The threatened lawsuit may be more a political exercise than a legal one, as a judge is unlikely to rule that the SALT deduction cap violates either the Equal Protection Clause or the Tenth Amendment
14 min readShould Congress Act Before SCOTUS On Online Sales Taxes?
The U.S. Supreme Court is hearing a case on the constitutionality of a South Dakota law requiring internet vendors collect online sales tax, but should Congress fix the problem first?
13 min read