Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $900 in 2026.
57 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $900 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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As the market share of electric vehicles (EVs) on the road grows, the gas tax’s ability to fund road projects and decrease traffic congestion erodes. Both federal and state real tax revenue per vehicle mile traveled has been on a steady decline for decades, creating a fiscal gap for road expenditures even as the demand for road infrastructure improvements has grown.
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Poland taxes its individual business owners through alternative regimes and a series of thresholds, several of them sharp notches that imply significant tax costs for businesses crossing them.
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The California Billionaire Tax Act (Proposition 40), which imposes a one-time 5 percent tax on billionaires’ net worth, is vulnerable to numerous constitutional challenges, any of which could invalidate the tax in whole or in part.
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Wealth taxes not only collect little revenue and create legal uncertainty, but an OECD report argues that they can also disincentivize entrepreneurship, harming innovation and long-term growth.
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The highest state tax on cigarettes is levied by New York at $5.35 per pack of 20. The next highest tax jurisdiction is the District of Columbia at $5.07 per pack of cigarettes, followed closely by Maryland at $5.00 per pack, Rhode Island at $4.50 per pack, and Connecticut at $4.35 per pack.
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The OBBBA made substantial improvements to cost recovery, but more opportunities remain for policymakers looking to improve the investment climate in the US.
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The EU Tax Omnibus proposal would create an EU-wide minimum standard for full expensing, but it confines that standard to qualifying tangible assets used in research and development (R&D) rather than to broader asset classes.
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The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $900 in 2026.
57 min read
The Tax Foundation uses and maintains a General Equilibrium Model, known as our Taxes and Growth (TAG) Model to simulate the effects of government tax and spending policies on the economy and on government revenues and budgets.
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The ongoing economic uncertainty from global geopolitical threats, supply chain disruptions, rising interest rates, and lagging economic growth in many developed countries have highlighted the importance of private business investment.
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Although sometimes overlooked in discussions about corporate taxation, capital allowances play an important role in a country’s corporate tax base and can impact investment decisions—with far-reaching economic consequences.
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However well-intended they may be, sales tax holidays remain the same as they always have been—ineffective and inefficient.
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A destination-based value-added tax (VAT) or goods and services tax (GST) is a better instrument for taxing digital consumption by avoiding cascading. Recent experience shows that governments can tax digital consumption with a better structure than DSTs.
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Many countries incentivize business investment in research and development (R&D), intending to foster innovation. A common approach is to provide direct government funding for R&D activity. However, a significant number of jurisdictions also offer R&D tax incentives.
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The five states with the highest average combined state and local sales tax rates are Louisiana (10.13 percent), Tennessee (9.61 percent), Washington (9.57 percent), Arkansas (9.48 percent), and Alabama (9.46 percent).
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In recent years, several countries have taken measures to reduce carbon emissions, including instituting environmental regulations, emissions trading systems (ETSs), and carbon taxes.
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Whether a sommelier or a casual enjoyer, wine drinkers may not be aware of just how much they are paying in taxes to uncork their drink of choice.
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Since digital services taxes generate little revenue, place the cost on European consumers and not on large digital companies as intended, and risk escalating trade disputes, policymakers should rethink their strategy.
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Worldwide, 175 countries—including all major European countries—levy a value-added tax (VAT) on goods and services. However, to reduce compliance and administrative costs, most countries have VAT exemption thresholds: if a business is below a certain annual revenue threshold, it is not required to participate in the VAT system.
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In the United States, taxes are the single most expensive ingredient in beer. The tax burden accounts for more of the final price of beer than labor and materials combined—the many different layers of applicable taxes combining to total as much as 40.8 percent of the retail price.
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