Tariff Tracker: Impact of Trump Tariffs & Trade War by the Numbers
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
51 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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Senators Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) and Cory Booker (D-NJ) have each introduced proposals aimed at cutting taxes for lower- and middle-income taxpayers and raising them on high-income taxpayers.
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Property taxes are the primary tool for financing local governments. While no taxpayers in high-tax jurisdictions will be celebrating their yearly payments, property taxes are largely rooted in the benefit principle of taxation: the people paying the property tax bills are most often the ones benefiting from the services.
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The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
51 min read
Capital gains taxes create a bias against saving, leading to a lower level of national income by encouraging present consumption over investment.
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
55 min read
The vaping industry has grown rapidly in recent decades, becoming a well-established product category and a viable alternative to cigarettes for those trying to quit smoking. US states levy a variety of tax structures on vaping products.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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The pass-through business sector—including partnerships, S corporations, and sole proprietorships—employs most of the private-sector workforce in the US and accounts for about half of US business income.
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Fuel taxes continue to be a central policy consideration for European countries amid geopolitical conflicts, increased emphasis on environmental policy, and economic conditions experienced by average consumers.
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Individual income taxes are a major source of state government revenue, accounting for more than a third of state tax collections. How do income taxes compare in your state?
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Our analysis of the major tax provisions included in the OBBBA finds it will increase long-run GDP by 0.7 percent. The major tax provisions will reduce federal tax revenue by nearly $5.2 trillion between 2025 and 2034, on a conventional basis.
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Denmark (55.9 percent), France (55.4 percent), and Austria (55 percent) levy the highest top personal income tax rates in Europe.
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With changes to payroll taxes likely to be part of a toolkit for reform, both policymakers and the public would benefit from understanding how the payroll tax works, who pays it, and its impact on the economy.
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One area of the tax code in which extreme complexity and low compliance go hand-in-hand—and where reform is desperately needed—is in states’ nonresident individual income tax filing and withholding laws.
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A focus on sustained growth, meaningful metrics, and institutional capabilities that keep simplification a focus in future regulatory efforts should underpin the decluttering agenda.
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More than 175 countries worldwide—including all major European countries—levy a value-added tax (VAT) on goods and services. EU Member States’ VAT rates vary across countries, though they’re somewhat harmonized by the EU.
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If all 50 states established legal, open, statewide sports gaming markets, a 10 percent GGR tax would generate an additional $1.6 billion per year in tax revenue.
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Michigan’s proposed 5 percent income surtax on high earners, yielding a top marginal rate of 9.25 percent, is also a tax on the small businesses that employ nearly 2 million Michiganders.
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As a result of state-level reforms, the expansion of the sales tax base, and rising property valuations, North Carolina’s local governments have seen remarkable revenue growth in recent years.
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Retail sales taxes are an essential part of most states’ revenue toolkits, responsible for nearly a quarter of combined state and local tax collections.
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