Estimated Impact of Improved Cost Recovery Treatment by State

Removing the taxA tax is a mandatory payment or charge collected by local, state, and national governments from individuals or businesses to cover the costs of general government services, goods, and activities. code’s bias against long-term investment by implementing a neutral cost recovery system (NCRS) for structures and full expensing for other assets is estimated to increase economic growth and job creation. Using the Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model, we estimate that permanent full expensingFull expensing allows businesses to immediately deduct the full cost of certain investments in new or improved technology, equipment, or buildings. It alleviates a bias in the tax code and incentivizes companies to invest more, which, in the long run, raises worker productivity, boosts wages, and creates more jobs. and neutral cost recoveryCost recovery is the ability of businesses to recover (deduct) the costs of their investments. It plays an important role in defining a business’ tax base and can impact investment decisions. When businesses cannot fully deduct capital expenditures, they spend less on capital, which reduces worker’s productivity and wages. for structures will add more than 1 million full-time equivalent jobs to the long-run economy and boost the long-run capital stock by 13 percent, or $4.8 trillion.

To illustrate the potential impact that these policy changes could have on job and capital stock growth, the Tax Foundation has launched a new interactive map that allows users to explore the effects of improved cost recovery treatment by state.

Improving capital cost recovery will be crucial for the recovery effort from the public health crisis to increase investment and job growth. Under the U.S. tax code, companies can generally deduct their ordinary business costs when figuring their income for tax purposes. However, this is not always the case for the costs of capital investments, such as when businesses purchase buildings, factories, or warehouses. Typically, when businesses incur these sorts of costs, they must deduct them over several years according to preset depreciation schedules, instead of deducting them immediately in the year the investment occurs.

Delaying deductions means the present value of the write-offs (adjusted for inflation and the time value of money) is less than the original cost, preventing companies from fully deducting the cost of their investments in real terms. Denying full deductions for these costs in turn overstates profits and increases the after-tax cost of making investments, leading to a lower level of investment and economic growth.

Using the Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model, we estimate the effect of improving the cost recovery of all types of investments by implementing a NCRS system for 27.5-year and 39-year structures and full expensing for all other assets. We find that these two policies together would increase the capital stock by 13.0 percent and full-time equivalent employment by 1.02 million jobs.

Table 1. Long-Run Economic Effect of NCRS for Buildings and Structures and Permanent Full Expensing for All Other Assets

	NCRS for 27.5- and 39-Year Structures	Full Expensing for All Other Assets	Combined Effect
Capital Stock (2020 dollars)	7.0% ($2.6 trillion)	6% ($2.2 trillion)	13.0% ($4.8 trillion)
Full-Time Equivalent Jobs	569,000	451,000	1.02 million
Source: Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model, November 2019

Table 2. Job and Capital Stock Growth by State

	Full-Time Equivalent Jobs		Private Capital Stock
	NCRS for Structures	NCRS for Structures + Full Expensing for Other Assets	NCRS for Structures	NCRS for Structures + Full Expensing for Other Assets
Alabama	7,629	13,681	$28.1	$52.0
Alaska	1,302	2,334	$7.5	$13.9
Arizona	10,938	19,616	$44.6	$82.3
Arkansas	4,714	8,454	$16.6	$30.6
California	68,645	123,098	$387.1	$715.1
Colorado	10,953	19,641	$49.0	$90.4
Connecticut	6,597	11,830	$34.5	$63.7
Delaware	1,688	3,027	$8.8	$16.2
District of Columbia	2,595	4,654	$17.5	$32.3
Florida	35,323	63,344	$131.8	$243.5
Georgia	17,784	31,892	$74.8	$138.2
Hawaii	2,639	4,733	$11.6	$21.4
Idaho	2,944	5,280	$10.1	$18.6
Illinois	22,540	40,421	$108.4	$200.3
Indiana	11,245	20,166	$46.0	$85.0
Iowa	5,918	10,613	$24.1	$44.5
Kansas	5,502	9,866	$21.6	$39.9
Kentucky	7,228	12,961	$26.3	$48.5
Louisiana	7,747	13,893	$33.3	$61.6
Maine	2,405	4,313	$8.1	$15.0
Maryland	10,663	19,122	$51.9	$95.9
Massachusetts	13,812	24,768	$71.9	$132.9
Michigan	16,237	29,118	$65.7	$121.4
Minnesota	10,759	19,293	$47.0	$86.8
Mississippi	4,552	8,162	$14.4	$26.7
Missouri	10,714	19,213	$40.3	$74.5
Montana	1,942	3,482	$6.5	$12.1
Nebraska	3,785	6,787	$15.9	$29.4
Nevada	5,226	9,372	$21.4	$39.5
New Hampshire	2,537	4,549	$10.8	$19.9
New Jersey	15,753	28,249	$78.2	$144.4
New Mexico	3,162	5,670	$13.5	$24.9
New York	35,976	64,515	$202.6	$374.3
North Carolina	17,163	30,778	$70.5	$130.3
North Dakota	1,649	2,958	$7.5	$13.9
Ohio	20,105	36,053	$85.3	$157.7
Oklahoma	6,607	11,848	$27.9	$51.6
Oregon	7,320	13,126	$30.8	$57.0
Pennsylvania	22,104	39,638	$100.9	$186.5
Rhode Island	1,838	3,295	$7.6	$14.1
South Carolina	8,057	14,448	$29.6	$54.7
South Dakota	1,734	3,109	$6.5	$12.0
Tennessee	11,676	20,939	$45.9	$84.7
Texas	49,883	89,453	$248.0	$458.1
Utah	5,842	10,476	$22.8	$42.2
Vermont	1,249	2,240	$4.2	$7.8
Virginia	15,094	27,068	$67.4	$124.5
Washington	12,926	23,180	$73.6	$136.1
West Virginia	2,562	4,595	$10.0	$18.5
Wisconsin	10,591	18,992	$42.4	$78.3
Wyoming	1,148	2,059	$5.4	$10.1
Source: Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model, November 2019, and author’s calculations.

Estimated new full-time equivalent jobs by state were allocated based on each state’s share of total employment in 2018 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Estimated capital stock increases were allocated based on each state’s share of GDP in 2018 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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