Introduction
The 2026 filing season is the first to reflect new taxA tax is a mandatory payment or charge collected by local, state, and national governments from individuals or businesses to cover the costs of general government services, goods, and activities. changes from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), including deductions for tips, overtime, auto loan interest, and senior citizens. Tax filers are likely to see larger tax refunds than usual because the tax cuts enacted for calendar year 2025 were not reflected in IRS withholdingWithholding is the income an employer takes out of an employee’s paycheck and remits to the federal, state, and/or local government. It is calculated based on the amount of income earned, the taxpayer’s filing status, the number of allowances claimed, and any additional amount the employee requests. tables, leaving many taxpayers over-withheld for the year.
Though refunds will be larger, the temporary and retroactive provisions providing the refund surge are not why we expect the new tax law to boost the economy. Instead, the new law’s permanent reductions in marginal tax rates will increase incentives to work, leading to growth over the long term.
We track three data points from the IRS filing season statistics and compare them to the two prior filing seasons to assess how the OBBBA is affecting tax refunds.
The average tax refundA tax refund is a reimbursement to taxpayers who have overpaid their taxes, often due to having employers withhold too much from paychecks. The U.S. Treasury estimates that nearly three-fourths of taxpayers are over-withheld, resulting in a tax refund for millions. Overpaying taxes can be viewed as an interest-free loan to the government. On the other hand, approximately one-fifth of taxpayers u as of February 20, 2026, was $3,804, up 10.2 percent compared to $3,453 as of February 21, 2025. The IRS is required by law to wait to release tax returns with EITC and ACTC refunds until after mid-February, so refund sizes typically increase in late February.
The IRS refunded about $329 billion during filing years 2024 and 2025, more than two-thirds of which were sent out before April 15. As of February 13, 2026, the IRS has refunded $32.084 billion to taxpayers in 2026, compared to $29.619 billion in 2025. Total refunds issued in the first few weeks of the filing season can vary, as people may still be waiting for the information they need to file. The IRS (as required by law) also holds EITC and ACTC refunds until after mid-February.
In 2024, the IRS issued more than 104 million refunds out of 163.5 million returns received (64.1 percent), and, in 2025, more than 103.8 million refunds out of 165.8 million returns received (62.6 percent). As of February 20, 2026, the IRS has issued 28.7 million tax refunds in 2026, compared to 29.6 million in 2025. Currently, 68.6 percent of returns filed have received a refund in 2026.
As the filing season progresses, early differences may smooth out as more people file and refunds with refundable credits begin to flow. We will update this page on a weekly basis with the latest filing season statistics and how they compare to the past two filing seasons.
Note: The 2026 filing season began on January 26, compared to January 27 in 2025 and January 29 in 2024. IRS filing season statistics compare cumulative totals for Fridays of the tax filing season to the corresponding Friday in the previous year.
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