The total amount refunded as of the first week of reporting is running ahead of past filing season at $19.95 billion, while the average refund is up 10.9 percent at $2,290.
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President Trump and those in his administration have insisted that consumers are not bearing any of the tariffs. But the latest data show exactly the opposite.
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The tariffs now in effect threaten to offset much of the GDP growth from the tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them.
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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Last Friday, the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs in a landmark 6-3 decision.
The pass-through business sector—including partnerships, S corporations, and sole proprietorships—employs most of the private-sector workforce in the US and accounts for about half of US business income.
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President Trump is scheduled to deliver the annual State of the Union address to Congress. The speech is bound to address a multitude of topics, but taxes and (especially) tariffs will certainly feature prominently.
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The increased senior deduction with the phaseout would deliver a larger tax cut to lower-middle- and middle-income taxpayers compared to exempting all Social Security benefits from income taxation and would not weaken the trust funds as much. But given the temporary nature of the policy, it would increase the deficit-impact of the reconciliation bills without boosting long-run economic growth.
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Michigan’s tax code remains too complex, and taxpayers should be asking for a system that bends toward simplicity, not the other way around.
Our analysis of the major tax provisions included in the OBBBA finds it will increase long-run GDP by 0.7 percent. The major tax provisions will reduce federal tax revenue by nearly $5.2 trillion between 2025 and 2034, on a conventional basis.
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The Trump tariffs will likely raise the cost of food for Americans, particularly for liqueurs and spirits, baked goods, coffee, fish, and beer.
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One area of the tax code in which extreme complexity and low compliance go hand-in-hand—and where reform is desperately needed—is in states’ nonresident individual income tax filing and withholding laws.
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The tax code is ripe for simplification, especially as complicated and targeted provisions expire in 2028.
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While the CEA’s analysis of the benefits of reduced reliance on income taxes is sound, its revenue replacement estimates are not. The actual revenue replacement rate could be as high as 17.51 percent.
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A focus on sustained growth, meaningful metrics, and institutional capabilities that keep simplification a focus in future regulatory efforts should underpin the decluttering agenda.
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Economic policy in 2025 came with historic highs but also disappointing lows.
Over the long run, OBBBA’s permanent extension of lower marginal tax rates on work, saving, and investment lays a solid foundation for stronger economic growth.
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Though politically popular, “no tax on tips and overtime” is a short-sighted gimmick that risks derailing West Virginia’s path to prosperity.
When taxpayers file their 2025 tax returns in 2026, many will see larger refunds than in recent years. That’s due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which reduced individual income taxes for 2025 by an estimated $129 billion.
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Explore the IRS inflation-adjusted 2026 tax brackets, for which taxpayers will file tax returns in early 2027.
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