Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
122 min read
Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
24 min read
For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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Overall, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is projected to add 339,000 new jobs to the U.S. economy and boost average after-tax incomes for middle-income families by $649.43. Here’s how jobs and after-tax wages will be impacted in your state.
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According to the Tax Foundation’s Taxes and Growth Model, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would lead to a 1.7 percent increase in GDP over the long term, 1.5 percent higher wages, an additional 339,000 full-time equivalent jobs, and cost $1.47 trillion on a static basis and by $448 billion on a dynamic basis.
22 min read
In 2018, trends to watch in state tax policy will include reductions in corporate tax rates, the spread of gross receipts taxes, new and lower taxes on marijuana, estate tax repeal, a wait-and-see approach on federal tax reform, and more.
16 min read
As the federal government continues to debate tax reform, states, and many taxpayers, are asking an important question: How is my state’s tax code impacted? The exact impacts won’t be known until the federal bill is finalized, but a good place to start is understanding the issue of conformity.
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This study demonstrates how Tax Foundation’s TAG model calculates the weighted average METRs for different capital assets in the corporate and noncorporate sectors. The high marginal rates of up to 53 percent in the corporate sector illustrate why there is an urgent need for business tax reform.
12 min read
See the state-by-state impact of the Senate Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for both new jobs and the boost to after-tax incomes for middle-income families.
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This comprehensive overview of the of the Senate Tax Cuts and Jobs Act includes a summary of its details and macroeconomic analysis of how it would impact federal revenue, wages, GDP, and after-tax incomes.
23 min read
A typical American household with four wireless phones paying $100 per month for wireless voice service can expect to pay about $221 per year in wireless taxes, fees, and surcharges.
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This paper evaluates the arguments for and against “crowding out” and compares these arguments to empirical studies. It discusses the impact of tax changes on the allocation of national income between consumption and saving, and the allocation of saving between private investment and government deficits. It finds that the crowding out argument is largely based on a mistaken assumption about the flexibility and availability of saving and credit for the financing of government deficits and private investment.
31 min read
Excessive tax rates on cigarettes approach de facto prohibition in some states, inducing black and gray market movement of tobacco products into high-tax states from low-tax states or foreign sources.
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This comprehensive overview of the of the House Tax Cuts and Jobs Act includes a summary of its details and macroeconomic analysis of how it would impact federal revenue, wages, GDP, and after-tax incomes.
20 min read
Hampered by high marginal tax rates and complex business tax rules, the United States again ranks towards the bottom of the pack on our 2017 International Tax Competitiveness Index, placing 30 out of 35 OECD countries.
11 min read
When taking a closer look at the UK’s recent corporate tax reform experiment, it becomes clear that there was significantly more at work than just a simple rate cut. Increasing the effective marginal tax rate on new investments could have had a negative effect on wages, potentially offsetting the positive effects from the corporate rate cut.
4 min read
Recent empirical evidence shows that workers bear upwards of 70 percent of the corporate income tax burden, much more than popular tax models claim, which make errors in how they account for super-normal returns and the openness of our economy.
50 min readDue in part to historical accident and also to the proliferation of exemptions, the effectiveness of the state sales tax continues to erode. The median state sales tax, which should apply to all personal consumption, is nonly applied to 23 percent of personal consumption.
25 min read
For 15 years, our State Business Tax Climate Index has been the standard for legislators and taxpayers to understand how their state’s tax code compares and how it can be improved. Now, for the first time ever, you can explore our Index’s 100+ variables in an easy to use, interactive format.
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