Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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While the burden of Trump’s tariffs will ultimately be felt by most U.S. consumers, two-thirds of the new taxes will be initially borne by 10 states.
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Individual income tax rates and brackets vary widely by state. Keep track of top marginal income tax rates in your state and others with our new guide.
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Taxpayers reported $10.4 trillion of total income on their 2015 tax returns. This report breaks down the sources of this income: wages and salaries, business income, investment income, and retirement income.
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The marriage penalty and the marriage bonus are each ways that the income tax code violates the principle of neutrality and affects taxpayer behavior. Here’s how each works and why they deserve attention.
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In addition to state-level sales taxes, consumers also face local sales taxes in 38 states. These rates can be substantial, so a state with a moderate statewide sales tax rate could actually have a very high combined state and local rate.
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Recent data show that Americans stand out for consuming much more than they invest, and this is due in part to the tax code’s bias against savings.
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The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act significantly reduced the federal statutory corporate income tax rate. When combined with state and local taxes, it put the U.S.’s corporate tax rate in line with the average among OECD nations.
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State corporate income tax rates range from 3 percent in North Carolina to 12 percent in Iowa. Download and compare each state’s 2018 rates and brackets here.
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Federal tax reform gives states an opportunity to improve their own tax codes. This study surveys the federal provisions to which states conform, what each state can expect from federal tax changes, and what options are available to them.
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For every 1 percentage point increase in a state’s corporate tax rate, employment in start-up firms declines 3.7 percent, according to a recent Federal Reserve study.
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There are many ways that states can compete with one another for residents, and tax rates and structures should certainly be part of the conversation for states looking to attract new residents.
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The scramble to restore the full state and local tax deduction for high-income taxpayers has resulted in inventive proposals that, for both legal and practical reasons, are unlikely to succeed.
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You probably aren’t going to win the Powerball jackpot, but your state already has. Here’s a look at lottery withholding tax rates by state.
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With the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), many tax brackets, thresholds, and rates will change in 2018. Explore 2018 tax brackets, standard and personal exemptions, earned income tax credit, and more.
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Whether your state’s corporate income tax code conforms to the federal corporate income tax code matters a great deal for how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will impact revenue in your state.
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