Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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Today’s map shows which European OECD countries implemented financial stability contributions (FSCs), commonly referred to as “bank taxes.”
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Inventory taxes are levied regardless of whether a business makes a profit, adding to the burden of businesses already struggling to stay afloat.
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Despite the coronavirus pandemic’s immense health and economic challenges, the crisis has also revealed the incredible value of innovation.
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The excise tax family is growing. Over the last decade, several products have become subject to excise taxes or are in the process of becoming so. Given this development, it is more crucial than ever that lawmakers, businesses, and consumers understand the possibilities and, more importantly, limitations of excise tax application.
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Property taxes are levied on the assets of an individual or business. There are different types of property taxes, with recurrent taxes on immovable property (such as property taxes on land and buildings) the only ones levied by all countries covered. Other types of property taxes include estate, inheritance, and gift taxes, net wealth taxes, and taxes on financial and capital transactions.
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Moving away from state gross receipts taxes would represent a pro-growth change to make the tax code friendlier to businesses and consumers alike, which is especially necessary in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
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Our updated 2021 edition of Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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Hungary relies the most on consumption tax revenue, at 45.3 percent of total tax revenue, followed by Latvia and Estonia at 45.1 percent and 42.4 percent, respectively.
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The state with the highest combined corporate income tax rate is New Jersey, with a combined rate of 30.1 percent. Corporations in Alaska, California, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania face combined corporate income tax rates at or above 28 percent.
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Mississippi has an opportunity to become the 10th state without an individual income tax and to do so with sales tax rates which, while certainly high, are in line with regional competitors. For such a momentous undertaking, however, policymakers should be equipped with reliable revenue projections and a detailed accounting of how much revenue is projected to come from each offsetting change. A change worth doing is worth doing right.
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Social insurance taxes are the second largest tax revenue source in European OECD countries, at an average of 29.5 percent of total tax revenue.
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In addition to the federal estate tax, with a top rate of 40 percent, some states levy an additional estate or inheritance tax. Twelve states and Washington, D.C. impose estate taxes and six impose inheritance taxes. Maryland is the only state to impose both. Most states have been moving away from estate or inheritance taxes or have raised their exemption levels, as estate taxes without the federal exemption hurt a state’s competitiveness.
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President Biden and congressional policymakers have proposed several changes to the corporate income tax, including raising the rate from 21 percent to 28 percent and imposing a 15 percent minimum tax on the book income of large corporations, to raise revenue for new spending programs. Our new modeling analyzes the economic, revenue, and distributional impact of these proposals.
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Congress chose to exempt forgiven Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans from federal income taxation. Many states, however, remain on track to tax them by either treating forgiven loans as taxable income, denying the deduction for expenses paid for using forgiven loans, or both.
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Denmark relies the most on revenue from individual income taxes, at 52.4 percent of total tax revenue, followed by Iceland and Ireland at 40.8 percent and 31.5 percent, respectively.
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In the United States, individual income taxes (federal, state, and local) are the primary source of tax revenue, at 41.5 percent of total tax revenue. Social insurance taxes make up the second-largest share, at 24.9 percent, followed by consumption taxes, at 17.6 percent, and property taxes, at 12.1 percent.
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Individual income taxes are a major source of state government revenue, accounting for 37 percent of state tax collections in fiscal year (FY) 2017. Several states had notable individual income tax changes in 2020: Arizona, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
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The Biden campaign and Senate Democrats identified changes to GILTI that would increase the taxes U.S. companies pay on their foreign earnings. Rather than tacking on changes to a system that is currently neither fully territorial nor worldwide, policymakers should evaluate the structure of the current system with a goal of it becoming more, not less, coherent.
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Despite declining corporate income tax rates over the last 30 years in Europe (and other parts of the world), average revenue from corporate income taxes as a share of total tax revenue has not changed significantly compared to 1990.
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Developed countries have on average become more reliant on consumption taxes and less reliant on individual income taxes. These policy changes matter, considering that consumption-based taxes raise revenue with less distortionary effects than taxes on income.
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