Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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As housing prices are rapidly increasing, and property tax bills along with them, the property tax has come into the spotlight in many states. The design of a state’s property tax system can affect how attractive that state is to businesses and residents.
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According to our analysis, President Biden’s budget would reduce long-run economic output by about 1.3 percent and eliminate 335,000 FTE jobs. See what tax policies the president is proposing.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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States can better position themselves for success by moving away from economically-damaging taxes like the capital stock tax.
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In many countries, investment income, such as dividends and capital gains, is taxed at a different rate than wage income. Denmark levies the highest top capital gains tax of all countries covered, at a rate of 42 percent. Norway levies the second-highest top capital gains tax at 37.8 percent. Finland and France follow, at 34 percent each.
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Gross receipts taxes impose costs on consumers, workers, and shareholders alike. Shifting from these economically damaging taxes can thus be a part of states’ plans for improving their tax codes in an increasingly competitive tax landscape.
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Denmark (55.9 percent), France (55.4 percent), and Austria (55 percent) have the highest top statutory personal income tax rates among European OECD countries.
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Different taxes have different economic effects, so policymakers should always consider how tax revenue is raised and not just how much is raised.
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Designing tax policy in a way that sustainably finances government activities while minimizing distortions is important for supporting a productive economy.
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Most states avoid municipal income taxes for good reason. These taxes are more volatile and less economically competitive than other forms of taxation available to local governments, and add substantial complexity for governments and taxpayers alike.
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Individual income taxes are a major source of state government revenue, accounting for more than a third of state tax collections:
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Taking into account central and subcentral taxes, Portugal has the highest corporate tax rate in Europe at 31.5 percent, followed by Germany and Italy at 29.8 percent and 27.8 percent, respectively
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While many factors influence business location and investment decisions, sales taxes are something within policymakers’ control that can have immediate impacts.
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The EU countries with the highest standard VAT rates are Hungary (27 percent), Croatia, Denmark, and Sweden (all at 25 percent). Luxembourg levies the lowest standard VAT rate at 16 percent, followed by Malta (18 percent), Cyprus, Germany, and Romania (all at 19 percent).
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The latest IRS data shows that the U.S. federal individual income tax continued to be progressive, borne primarily by the highest income earners.
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New Jersey levies the highest top statutory corporate tax rate at 11.5 percent, followed by Minnesota (9.8 percent) and Illinois (9.50 percent). Alaska and Pennsylvania levy top statutory corporate tax rates of 9.40 percent and 8.99 percent, respectively.
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Value-added taxes (VAT) make up approximately one-fifth of total tax revenues in Europe. However, European countries differ significantly in how efficiently they raise VAT revenues. One way to measure a country’s VAT efficiency is the VAT Gap.
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Newly published data from the CBO indicates in 2019, before the onset of the pandemic, American incomes continued to rise as part of a broad economic expansion. It also shows that, contrary to common perceptions, the federal tax system is progressive.
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Since VAT revenues are such a significant and stable contributor to overall government revenues, EU policymakers should pay particular attention to how efficiently those revenues are raised.
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The pandemic has accelerated changes to the way we live and work, making it far easier for people to move—and they have. As states work to maintain their competitive advantage, they should pay attention to where people are moving, and try to understand why.
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