Trump Tariffs: The Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,300 per US household in 2025.
31 min read
Expert
Alex Durante
Senior Economist
Alex Durante is an Senior Economist at the Tax Foundation, working on federal tax policy and model development. He previously served as a Taxes and Growth Fellow at the Tax Foundation from 2015 to 2016.
Alex worked as a research assistant for three years at the Federal Reserve Board on a household survey, where he coauthored reports on the “Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households.” From 2019 through 2020, he served as a staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers, working primarily on trade policy and contributing economic analysis to the “Economic Report to the President.” He holds a BS in Economics from The College of New Jersey and an MS in Applied Economics from Johns Hopkins University.
Originally from New Jersey, Alex currently lives in Washington, D.C. His hobbies include tennis, boxing and mixed martial arts, and playing bass and drums.
Latest Work
How Much Revenue Can Tariffs Really Raise for the Federal Government?
Could tariffs, a form of government finance heavily relied upon in the 18th and 19th centuries, function as a major source of revenue for a modern, developed economy in the 21st century?
16 min read
The Role of LIFO in the Tax Code
While LIFO is rarely the main focus of the overall tax policy debate, it is a sound structural piece of the tax code. LIFO comes close to matching the economic ideal while still remaining true to the accounting principle.
15 min read
Who Pays Tariffs? Americans Will Bear the Costs of the Next Trade War
Rather than hurting foreign exporters, the economic evidence shows American firms and consumers were hardest hit by tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first-term.
5 min read
The Unsustainable US Debt Course and Impacts of Potential Tax Changes
Given the poor state of the budget process and worsening debt trajectory, lawmakers should move boldly and quickly to address the issue, including via a fiscal commission process. Issues to consider should include reforms to both spending and taxes.
42 min read
How the Payroll Tax Base Has Changed Over Time
The Social Security trust funds face looming insolvency if policymakers don’t reform the program. One issue that garners a lot of attention in the debate over solutions is the payroll tax cap.
3 min read
2025 Tax Brackets
Explore the IRS inflation-adjusted 2025 tax brackets, for which taxpayers will file tax returns in early 2026.
4 min read
Donald Trump Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min read
Leveraging Tax Policy to Bolster US Economic Growth Amid Competition with China
Restoring expensing for R&D, machinery, and equipment; extending better cost recovery to structures investment; and avoiding raising the corporate tax rate would create a stronger, pro-investment policy environment for the US economy.
44 min read
Social Security: Lessons for Reform
Social Security is by far the largest federal government spending program. The latest trustees report shows the program is on a fiscally unsustainable path that will exacerbate the US debt crisis if its imbalances are not addressed in the near term.
33 min read
Harris’s Proposed Capital Gains Tax Rate Would Be Highest for Many Since 1978
As part of the 2024 presidential campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris is proposing to tax long-term capital gains at a top rate of 33 percent for high earners, taking the top federal rate to highs not seen since the 1970s.
3 min read
Expanding User Fees for Transportation: Roads and Beyond
By 2034, the gas tax and other car-related excise taxes are projected to raise less than half of the Highway Trust Fund’s outlays. While broader tax and spending reforms are necessary for overall deficit reduction, improving transportation funding would be a crucial step forward.
34 min read
Details and Analysis of President Biden’s Fiscal Year 2025 Budget Proposal
President Biden is proposing extraordinarily large tax hikes on businesses and the top 1 percent of earners that would put the US in a distinctly uncompetitive international position and threaten the health of the US economy.
19 min read
Simplifying Saving and Improving Financial Security through Universal Savings Accounts
Universal savings accounts would boost savings for low-income households, allowing them to better withstand economic shocks, such as pandemics and recessions, and plan for major expenses, such as an expanded family, education, and housing needs.
36 min read
How the Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum Harmed the Economy
The Section 232 tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum raised the cost of production for manufacturers, reducing employment in those industries, raising prices for consumers, and hurting exports.
18 min read
Options for Navigating the 2025 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Expirations
Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
21 min read
New CBO Report Shows Pandemic Response Sharply Reduced Inequality, Increased Progressivity in 2020
The pandemic led to one of the largest fiscal responses in U.S. history, impacting households across the income distribution.
4 min read
Treasury Finds TCJA Interest Limitations Had Small Impact on Corporate Activity
Limiting interest deductibility continues to be a worthwhile policy goal, but given the current climate, policymakers should opt to pair any further limitations with other pro-growth policies such as full expensing to ensure firms’ incentives to invest are preserved.
3 min read
Details and Analysis of the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024
The House Ways and Means Committee has advanced a tax deal to the House floor that would temporarily—and retroactively—restore two major business deductions for cost recovery and expand the child tax credit through 2025.
10 min read
Don’t Ignore the Long Run When Evaluating Corporate Tax Cuts
Do corporate tax cuts boost workers’ wages? The answer depends on your time frame.
4 min read