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Modeling Tax Proposals

The Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy uses our dynamic Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model to analyze the economic, budgetary, and distributional impact of campaign, legislative, and other popular tax policy proposals. Explore our modeling below.

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Trump Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Reconciliation After the 2024 Election

Questions About Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Reconciliation After the Election

Fiscal pressures are likely to weigh heavily on lawmakers as they craft a tax reform package. That increased pressure could result in well-designed tax reform that prioritizes economic growth, simplicity, and stability, or it could encourage budget gimmicks and economically harmful offsets. Lawmakers should avoid the latter.

8 min read
Trump tariffs impact economy analysis

How Will Trump’s Universal and China Tariffs Impact the Economy?

President-elect Trump may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire. Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy.

5 min read
Donald Trump Tariffs Revenue Estimates Income Taxes US Households Tax Hike

Revenue Estimates of Trump’s Universal Baseline Tariffs

Lawmakers will need to pursue fiscal responsibility as they address the tax law expirations, but fiscal responsibility requires finding sound ways to pay for spending priorities. Tariffs don’t make the cut.

4 min read
Kamala Harris Tax Plan 2024 Details Analysis

Kamala Harris Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis

On tax policy, Harris carries forward much of President Biden’s FY 2025 budget, including higher taxes aimed at businesses and high earners. She would also further expand the child tax credit (CTC) and various other tax credits and incentives while exempting tips from income tax.  

17 min read
Donald Trump Tax Plan 2024 Details Analysis

Donald Trump Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis

We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.

12 min read
Neutral Cost Recovery for Structures Reform TCJA

Why Neutral Cost Recovery Matters

Allowing full deductibility of residential structures would mean more housing construction, particularly multifamily housing—a practical solution to address housing affordability challenges.

6 min read
Trump Harris corporate tax proposals US corporate tax rate 2024 election impact on US corporate income tax policy

The Corporate Tax Rate Tug-of-War

Depending on the 2024 US election, the current corporate tax rate of 21 percent could be in for a change. See the modeling here.

4 min read
Placing Biden Tax Proposals and Trump Tax Proposals in Historical Context Largest Tax Increase and Largest Tax Hike in History and Largest Tax Decrease and Largest Tax Cut in History

Placing Biden and Trump Tax Proposals in Historical Context

From President Biden calling the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act the “largest tax cut in American history,” to former President Trump claiming that Biden “wants to raise your taxes by four times,” the campaign rhetoric on taxes may be sparking some confusion.

5 min read
Biden tariffs and Trump tariffs tracking the economic impact of US imposed tariffs

Tariff Tracker: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump-Biden Tariffs

The Trump administration imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans by levying tariffs on thousands of products in 2018 and 2019, amounting to one of the largest tax increases in decades. The Biden administration has kept most of the Trump administration tariffs in place

19 min read
Considering 2025 tax reform options for 2025, 2026, and beyond for the 2025 tax debate

Considering Tax Reform Options for 2025 (and Beyond)

Given that U.S. debt is roughly the size of our annual economic output, policymakers will face many tough fiscal choices in the coming years. The good news is there are policies that both support a larger economy and avoid adding to the debt.

6 min read