The Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy uses our dynamic Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model to analyze the economic, budgetary, and distributional impact of campaign, legislative, and other popular tax policy proposals. Explore our modeling below.
The Tax Foundation uses and maintains a General Equilibrium Model, known as our Taxes and Growth (TAG) Model to simulate the effects of government tax and spending policies on the economy and on government revenues and budgets.
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The Tax Foundation models tax policy using our proprietary Taxes and Growth model, illustrating the economic, revenue, and distributional impacts of different changes to the federal tax code. We’ve recently implemented improvements to the model that have been underway for the past several years, and we will be detailing them further in our forthcoming model methodology update.
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This tax reform plan would boost long-run GDP by 2.5%, grow wages by 1.4%, and add 1.3M jobs, all while collecting a similar amount of tax revenue as the current code and reducing the long-run debt burden.
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Lawmakers will have to weigh the economic, revenue, and distributional trade-offs of extending or making permanent the various provisions of the TCJA as they decide how to approach the upcoming expirations. A commitment to growth, opportunity, and fiscal responsibility should guide the approach.
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Trump’s tariffs are the largest tax hike since 1982. The tariffs are larger than the tax increases enacted under Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama.
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A robust collection of 70 potential US tax reform changes and US tax reform options for reforming the tax code. See the comprehensive tax reform guide.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren introduced a 7 percent surtax on corporate profits called the “Real Corporate Profits Tax.” We estimate that this tax would reduce the incentive to invest in the United States, and result in a 1.9 percent smaller economy, a 3.3 percent smaller capital stock, and 1.5 percent lower wages. The surtax would raise $872 billion between 2020 and 2029 on a conventional basis and $476 billion on a dynamic basis. The tax would make the tax code more progressive, but it would fall on taxpayers in every income group.
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Lawmakers recently introduced a bill to repeal the $10,000 cap on the state and local deduction (SALT) and raise the top tax rate on ordinary income from 37 percent to 39.6 percent.
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We estimate that a new proposal to expand the EITC would reduce federal revenue by $1.8 trillion and decrease long-run GDP by 0.29 percent, while boosting labor force participation for low-income tax filers by 822,788 full-time equivalent jobs.
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Due to a narrow tax base and a decrease in capital gains realizations, Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez’s plan to tax income above $10 million would not raise as much revenue as intended. See our 10-year revenue estimates.
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The Trump administration has imposed $42 billion worth of new taxes on Americans by levying tariffs on thousands of products. Outstanding threats to impose further tariffs mean additional tax increases up to $129 billion.
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Our updated analysis of the state-by-state impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act shows that the new federal tax law will create 215,000 full-time equivalent jobs in 2018. Here’s how each state will be affected.
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If extended, the individual income tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would increase long-run GDP by 2.2 percent, long-run wages by 0.9 percent, and add 1.5 million new jobs.
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Taxpayers in every income level will receive a tax cut in 2018 and for most of the next decade. See how the size of that tax cut will vary for each income group over the next decade with our new, long-term distributional analysis.
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The Trump administration’s proposed tariffs would lead to job losses and a reduction in economic growth, as the Tax Foundation’s updated Tax and Growth model shows.
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In an attempt to provide a realistic, data-driven analysis of federal tax policy, the Tax Foundation has developed a General Equilibrium Model to simulate the effects of tax policies on the economy and on government revenues and budgets.
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Overall, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is projected to add 339,000 new jobs to the U.S. economy and boost average after-tax incomes for middle-income families by $649.43. Here’s how jobs and after-tax wages will be impacted in your state.
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According to the Tax Foundation’s Taxes and Growth Model, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would lead to a 1.7 percent increase in GDP over the long term, 1.5 percent higher wages, an additional 339,000 full-time equivalent jobs, and cost $1.47 trillion on a static basis and by $448 billion on a dynamic basis.
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