The Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy uses our dynamic Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model to analyze the economic, budgetary, and distributional impact of campaign, legislative, and other popular tax policy proposals. Explore our modeling below.
This tax reform plan would boost long-run GDP by 2.5%, grow wages by 1.4%, and add 1.3M jobs, all while collecting a similar amount of tax revenue as the current code and reducing the long-run debt burden.
39 min read
Lawmakers will have to weigh the economic, revenue, and distributional trade-offs of extending or making permanent the various provisions of the TCJA as they decide how to approach the upcoming expirations. A commitment to growth, opportunity, and fiscal responsibility should guide the approach.
18 min read
The Trump administration imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans by levying tariffs on thousands of products in 2018 and 2019, amounting to one of the largest tax increases in decades. The Biden administration has kept most of the Trump administration tariffs in place
19 min read
According to our analysis, President Biden’s budget would reduce long-run economic output by about 1.3 percent and eliminate 335,000 FTE jobs. See what tax policies the president is proposing.
17 min read
How will the Inflation Reduction Act taxes impact inflation, economic growth, tax revenue, and everyday taxpayers? See Inflation Reduction Act tax changes.
12 min read
A robust collection of 70 potential US tax reform changes and US tax reform options for reforming the tax code. See the comprehensive tax reform guide.
The business tax changes originally introduced in the TCJA are scheduled to increase tax burdens on businesses at a time when economic headwinds and broader uncertainty are higher than they have been in decades.
12 min read
We find that the dynamic cost of permanent bonus depreciation rises by about 7 percent under 4 percent inflation, but the economic benefit, measured by the size of the economy, rises by about 25 percent.
4 min read
For many years, the UK has adopted a strikingly ungenerous approach to capital cost recovery – the ability of firms to write off investment against tax. This has coincided with consistently low levels of business investment. The super-deduction, which has temporarily made the UK tax system much more supportive of capital investment in plant and machinery is set to expire.
34 min read
The Section 232 tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum raised the cost of production for manufacturers, reducing employment in those industries, raising prices for consumers, and hurting exports.
14 min read
The phaseout of 100 percent bonus depreciation, scheduled to take place after the end of 2022, will increase the after-tax cost of investment in the U.S. Permanently extending it would increase long-run economic output by 0.4 percent and increase employment by 73,000 FTE jobs.
20 min read
In dollar terms, the industries that would account for the largest book minimum tax liabilities are manufacturing, at $73.2 billion, followed by finance, insurance, and management at $46.9 billion.
6 min read
How will the Inflation Reduction Act taxes impact inflation, economic growth, tax revenue, and everyday taxpayers? See Inflation Reduction Act tax changes.
12 min read
While exempting accelerated depreciation from the book minimum tax would reduce some of the economic harm of the tax, there remain many unresolved problems within the design and structure of the tax that make it a poorly chosen revenue option.
3 min read
Our new analysis reviews the basic structure of carbon taxes, how they compare to the existing set of climate policies, and how they could fit into various pro-growth tax reform packages.
26 min read
Policymakers actively marginalized the manufacturing sector by saddling them with cost recovery rules that prevent them from deducting the full cost of investment in physical plant and equipment. Going forward, policymakers should avoid haphazard fixes, targeted measures, and protectionism.
50 min read
By reducing the tax code’s current barriers to investment and saving and simplifying its complex rules, lawmakers would greatly enhance the ability of Americans to pursue new ideas, create more opportunities, and build financial security for themselves and their families.
40 min read
Policymakers and taxpayers should understand the scope of tax changes necessary to fully pay for the large-scale social spending programs that would be initiated under the Build Back Better Act.
6 min read
Learn more about the House Build Back Better Act, including the latest details and analysis of the Biden tax increases and reconciliation bill tax proposals.
15 min read
Due to the House Build Back Better tax plan’s economically costly and inefficient tax increases, our analysis finds that long-run GDP would drop by a little over $1 for every $1 in new tax revenue.
6 min read
If the spending in the $3.5 trillion budget resolution were financed entirely from tax increases, it would rival as a share of GDP the tax increases used to finance World War II and the Korean War.
3 min read
The Biden administration’s international tax proposals would impose a 7.7 percent surtax on the foreign profits of U.S. multinationals, resulting in a net increase in profit shifting out of the U.S.
60 min read
While it is good that policymakers are taking the impact of the economy on tax revenue seriously, it is important to remember that the dynamic effect of increased spending would only offset a small portion of the total spending. In other words, new spending—like tax cuts—rarely pays for itself.
3 min read
The redistribution of income from the Biden administration’s tax proposals would involve many winners and losers, not only across different types of taxpayers but also geographically across the country. Launch our new interactive map to see average tax changes by state and congressional district over the budget window from 2022 to 2031.
8 min read
Explore President Biden budget proposals, including tax and spending in American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan. See Biden tax and spending proposals.
12 min read
Details and analysis of the American Jobs Plan tax proposals. Learn more about the major tax changes in the proposed Biden infrastructure plan.
9 min read