Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions increase long-run GDP by 0.8 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
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The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
36 min read
From generous tax breaks to costly trade-offs, the House GOP’s One, Big, Beautiful Bill has a little of everything. It’s a sweeping attempt to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act before they expire in 2026—but what’s actually in it?
The House reconciliation bill includes numerous changes to the tax code: good, bad, and ugly. However, the new corporate alternative minimum tax, or CAMT, goes largely untouched.
4 min read
The EV fee in the reconciliation package would help the fiscal situation but would overcorrect the hole in the gas tax base EVs create. There are intermediate options, such as VMT taxes for EVs and commercial traffic or pairing flat EV fees with gas and diesel tax increases, that would be incrementally better than the reconciliation package’s approach.
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Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
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Republicans have advanced legislation to extend many provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) alongside dozens of new provisions. Any comprehensive tax legislation is going to have its wrinkles, and the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” is no different.
8 min read
Sean Bray interviewed Professor of Business Accounting and Taxation at the University of Kiel, Jost Heckemeyer, about the future of the EU tax mix. The interview shows that there is a trade-off between stability and flexibility in European tax policymaking. It also shows that there ought to be a balance between fairness and competitiveness when thinking about improving tax policy.
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We break down the House GOP’s One, Big, Beautiful Bill—a sweeping tax package designed to extend key parts of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act before they expire in 2026.
William McBride discussed how and why the budgetary cost of the IRA’s tax credits has grown, described who benefits from the tax credits, and recommended ways to reform the credits amid budget reconciliation.
As lawmakers continue to debate the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” they should abandon temporary and complex policy in favor of simplicity and stability.
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Tax simplification has two aspects. The first is a code without a mess of targeted provisions for various social policy goals. The second is a code with provisions that are simple and easy to comply with. The bill succeeds at the first, but fails at the second.
7 min read
According to the latest economic data from the US Census Bureau, the average per capita state and local tax burden is $7,109. However, collections vary widely by state, reflecting differences in tax rates and bases, natural resource endowments, the scale and scope of taxable economic activity in each state, and residents’ political preferences.
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The Trump administration advocates an “energy dominance” agenda to boost US energy production and lower costs. Its tariff agenda runs directly counter to it.
5 min read
Congressional Republicans are looking for ways to pay for extending the tax cuts scheduled to expire at the end of the year. Repealing the green energy tax subsidies expanded or introduced in the Inflation Reduction Act is an appealing option.
Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
2 min read
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) introduced a series of new targeted tax breaks, many of which seem to be much more expensive than originally forecasted. Understandably, repealing these subsidies is a key option for policymakers looking to pay to extend the expiring broader tax cuts passed in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
7 min read
The amount of revenue states raise through roadway-related revenues varies significantly across the US. Only three states raise enough revenue to fully cover their highway spending.
5 min read
In a perilous economic and fiscal environment, with instability created by Trump’s trade war and publicly held debt on track to surpass the highest levels ever recorded within five years, a lot rides on how Republicans navigate tax and spending reforms in reconciliation.
6 min read
While fixing infrastructure funding has not been a focus of the tax expiration debate, it would be a smart way to pay for at least a small portion of the expiring tax cuts. In recent years, highway funding has exceeded highway revenues, and the introduction of electric vehicles has made the gas tax increasingly obsolete.
7 min read